Downswings.

There was a time, where I, like the majority of people frowned upon the idea that you could run bad for extended periods time, ranging weeks and months. Like others I assocciated that with, indeed, having bad luck, but more importantly playing sub par as a consequence.

That was 3 months ago. While I still hold this belief to be true, I changed my view on the length of runs that are based almost purely on bad luck. As it's easy to guess now I've been losing for 3 months. It's been around 85k hands, I'm down over 35 buy-ins (hard to say exactly, as it was different limits). I always try to be honest with myself so I naturally started reviewing my hands in PT. Unfortunately despite my efforts I couldn't find any visible spews. Naturally I make some mistakes, but nothing that would be clearly recurrent. I practise game selection, I consider myself a favourite in the games I play, I would be absolutely shocked if it was otherwise.

The reasons this is irritating is that I haven't heard of any good player having nearly 100k downswings stretches unless he was tilting, playing in bad games. Which would mean that I'm fooling myself by saying that I have been playing good, when in fact I am playing bad. This is the most logical assumption to make. However whenever I play a session nowadays and see the stuff that goes around and review it later on I just feel that I would be kidding myself if I told myself this is my fault.

And whenever you tell complain to somebody about this you can't really expect much. So you're sort of stuck alone with your problem, not really sure if you're doing something wrong or if what's going on is normal. That's poker I guess? I guess it would be a lot easier to cope with if there were some high stakes players that would tell you this is possible.

I just had a 2 week break, came back fresh, but 3 days later it just seems I'm getting spit on by the deck. Yesterday I said "fuck it" and made the resolution to be playing the absolute best, more motivated and focused than ever, no longer than 2 hours per session. I will try to keep this up for as long as I can.

So are 100k hand downswings possible? Has anyone had something like that and honestly believes it was mostly bad luck? I know Ket had a 100k break even stretch (not sure if he thinks he was playing ok), I think Nazgul also believes that you can run worse than 99% thinks is possible.

maybe get 10 hours or so with the best LP coach you can, it might help you identify spews if you do have them, and if not it may reassure you that your playing well.

I too thought this was impossible until a few months ago, after not having a serious downswing for about two years I suddenly had one for about 80k hands (I only play 500 - 1000 hands a day so this was a long period), when you are in it it gets very frustrating and there is nothing you can do about it. But at some point it will end and you will come out on top again (hopefully) my downswing ended recently with a nice heater where I made everything I had lost back

*edit* like tokeweed said changing site might be a good idea, thats what I did

i'd transfer to another site for awhile...

Tomson, I think you are great player based on the contributions you make at these forums and I am almost certain the swing you are going through is just a stretch of bad luck. Keep your head up and everything will fall back on track.

heres what i found does and doesnt help

does help:
sweating a friend playing a winning session or watching some cardrunners videos where they are winning
playing shorter sessions
take a break away from the computer after playing a bad session (go outside and go for a walk for 20 minutes)
switching sites or not playing all tables at the same site. when i've played at a certain site for a long time i get into these ego driven battles with the regulars and i always end up making spewy FPS moves against them.

doesnt help:
taking long breaks
trying to experiment with new playing styles (only experiment when you are running good and winning and never do it when you are on a downswing)

edit: fuck boss media

prima site with 60% rakeback - that's the answer

Obviously its mathematically possible to run bad over as long a stretch as you like
I like the ideas of switching sites/changing the way you put in your sessions just to try and avoid monotony and keep your mind active poker wise; if you never get shaken up you might be reinforcing small leaks etc

I had a downswing that lasted 4 months (about 100k hands). I was moving all the way down from nl400 to nl25 but I just couldn't win. Even on nl25.
And all of a suden it all stoped : the bad beats, the cold decks I was hitting flops and my oponents started to pay me off.
And playing almost same style as I was playing during the downswing I moved up from nl25 back to nl200 in 50K hands.
That made me believe that luck really is a big part of this game.

I use to laugh when people told me 20+ buy in downswings were possible. Now I laugh at people who think that way. To be honest with you tomsOn, the main reason that people these days are expierencing longer downswings is simply because the players are better and our edge over the game is not what it use to be.

And yes I believe 100k+ hand downswings are possible at the level you play. But I think if you have 100k+ hand downswing at anything under NL600 you probably are doing something wrong, and have room to improve.

I agree with everything jonny said. I would suggest taking some time off, more than 2 weeks. Maybe a month or 2, get out, travel, go visit friends etc. You could also switch sites as well.

i think taking that long off would be voluntarily continuing your downswing

maybe a week sure... or just drop limits to regain a bit of confidence or something. but i'd just keep playing as long as it is your best because you will win in the end

i feel you man, poker is just so mind killing. i just took a 2 week break also, but came back knowing that poker is still the easiest way to make a lot of money =/

Luck is definitely playing a big part in your results over a period much longer than most people think.
Its strange , cause with the percentages given ( like most of the situations are 60-40 or better for u) 10 K hands should be enough that you leave the field as a winner.
However in online Poker you need incredible big sample sizes to claim your succes is due to skill.

ya online poker the edge is a lot smaller =/

i also make $20/hr off rakeback so ship it!! =D i dont even need to win @ poker

I totally agree. When we all start out we dont believe in such things of monster downswings, we believe in bad play. Until it happens to us. When it seems like the 90/10's and the 80/20's we have turn into just the opposite. There have been times where I feel sick going in with a set vs a gutshot or w/e it maybe.

The worst part is, since it is a game of chance, in theory someone could forever run bad. xD i hope its not me D:

I am running really shitty right now, but all of you as a whole prove me I can keep playing (and improving).

If anyone slightly good wanna add me on MSN to help my play once in a while I'd really appreciate : lordkitsu@hotmail.com

This is standard Tomson, Twisted had posted a similar thread a few months ago saying he was losing for 3 months straight or something and he didn't think he could still win at poker, but his bad run ended, don't give up man.

Oh and 85k hands in 3 months is not much

I broke even over 20k hands and thought it was the end of the world. Can't imagine how you feel right now. I'm sure you'll get out of this slump.

Radiohead told me 300 000 hands is not a monster sample size

I had 110k hand break even stretch in fixed limit, 5/10.. 30/60 stakes, which ended few weeks ago. I played 6-7k hands a day so it only lasted for 2-3 weeks but it was really frustrating. I didn't play my best game, was forcing things and multi tabling in a robot mode. It's important to notice that most people play well when they are winning, good players can minimize their losses when losing and play their best game. What finally helped me in coming over this was rewatching a lot of videos, not playing in the highest stakes unless the game was exceptionally juicy and also I tightened up a bit. You will be winning in the long run as long as you know you are playing your best game and your opponents make more mistakes than you do.

On August 19 2007 09:06 JonnyCosMo wrote: And yes I believe 100k+ hand downswings are possible at the level you play. But I think if you have 100k+ hand downswing at anything under NL600 you probably are doing something wrong, and have room to improve.

this is preety accurate

100k hand downswings def possible

sure they are possible, i seem to get them all the time

I don't know if the 100k hands downswing is possible but 50-60k for sure. I had one when I move up to NL600 - get few beats and I had to move down from NL400 to NL25 - I lost like 95% of my roll (thats pretty sicko)

But now I feel fine and I know that that were only bad days and I hope to reach NL400 again really soon!

Tomson, I broke even for over 500k hands (Summer/Fall 2006), and it was a mystery to me. I thought I was definitely playing well if not great. I couldn't quit, because I depended on poker for income and had high hopes for it. It was very depressing.

Now I can see that I had a lot of leaks I didn't see and on the whole was playing terrible. There is always a ton of room to improve. It's the most likely that you are a subpar player for the level you're playing. Sometimes it looks like everyone is a huge donk, and it seems that losing can only be attributed to variance. But the donks' plays are sometimes +EV against your style, or they may be doing some other random things that are winning money from you. You could be playing so-so and just running really bad, but it's unlikely that you're capable of crushing the game at the moment, and this is happening.

There's always a ton of room to improve. You have to be completely confident in your knowledge before you can discount a downswing to variance. In your spot, I would spend a lot of time analyzing hand histories, and stats away from the table, and it's advisable to hire a coach. Invest maybe 2-3k, get someone who has a solid history of beating 3/6+ to provide feedback for a good number of hours.

btw, a 30 buy-in downswing over 85k hands is farfetched for someone playing winning poker, but I concede that it can happen.

However, saying "yeah, 100k hand downswings are possible, bad variance, man, you'll climb out" is ignorant

On August 19 2007 17:53 BBM wrote: Tomson, I broke even for over 500k hands (Summer/Fall 2006), and it was a mystery to me. I thought I was definitely playing well if not great. I couldn't quit, because I depended on poker for income and had high hopes for it. It was very depressing. Now I can see that I had a lot of leaks I didn't see and on the whole was playing terrible. There is always a ton of room to improve. It's the most likely that you are a subpar player for the level you're playing. Sometimes it looks like everyone is a huge donk, and it seems that losing can only be attributed to variance. But the donks' plays are sometimes +EV against your style, or they may be doing some other random things that are winning money from you. You could be playing so-so and just running really bad, but it's unlikely that you're capable of crushing the game at the moment, and this is happening. There's always a ton of room to improve. You have to be completely confident in your knowledge before you can discount a downswing to variance. In your spot, I would spend a lot of time analyzing hand histories, and stats away from the table, and it's advisable to hire a coach. Invest maybe 2-3k, get someone who has a solid history of beating 3/6+ to provide feedback for a good number of hours.

really good post

im smack bang in the middle of a 12 buyin downswing at NL25 over 40k.. sure ive taken a truckload of beats/coolers but I know I must have many leaks which is why I'm trying to get floofy to give me some lessons.

I'm confident I'm better than who I'm playing against but variance should make me breakeven, not lose at 2bb/100 over so long

I agree with with BBM

On August 19 2007 17:53 BBM wrote: Tomson, I broke even for over 500k hands (Summer/Fall 2006), and it was a mystery to me. I thought I was definitely playing well if not great. I couldn't quit, because I depended on poker for income and had high hopes for it. It was very depressing. Now I can see that I had a lot of leaks I didn't see and on the whole was playing terrible. There is always a ton of room to improve. It's the most likely that you are a subpar player for the level you're playing. Sometimes it looks like everyone is a huge donk, and it seems that losing can only be attributed to variance. But the donks' plays are sometimes +EV against your style, or they may be doing some other random things that are winning money from you. You could be playing so-so and just running really bad, but it's unlikely that you're capable of crushing the game at the moment, and this is happening. There's always a ton of room to improve. You have to be completely confident in your knowledge before you can discount a downswing to variance. In your spot, I would spend a lot of time analyzing hand histories, and stats away from the table, and it's advisable to hire a coach. Invest maybe 2-3k, get someone who has a solid history of beating 3/6+ to provide feedback for a good number of hours.

This is a very good post.



There is always room for improvement and maybe downswings are the right time to start looking deep into your game and find those areas to improve on.



I'm sorry, but unless you are 10x better than Phil Ivey or Sbgruby, there is always room for improvement.




Anyone who says "I am playing very well but I'm on a standard 100K hand breakeven stretch" is just outright lying to themselves so they can have an excuse NOT to improve.

When I had my first big break even run (3, 4 months) I was playing thinking that I was just running bad, but then I've seen a friend saying the same when he was playing with lot of leaks, and I told him: "You think you're playing well, but there are other people who play better in other aspects of the game and you dont notice it". So I started to rethink my game, and testing new strategies, untill now that I think Im playing a style that is crushing NL100 and probabbly can do the same at NL200.
Im sure you cant run bad at NL200 or below for more than 10K hands if you play good enough
Above NL400 I dont know how good they play, so I cant talk

Im sure you cant run bad at NL200 or below for more than 10K hands if you play good enough

not quite, but the rest of your post is good stuff

its "possible" to run bad forever but it just isn't realistic, that's why having BBM's look on things is the way to go

On August 19 2007 18:23 pmilanov wrote: I agree with with BBM

Who the fuck cares who you agree with fish?

A bad run only becomes a real one when you let the bad beats get to you. Its really hard to beat yourself out of the bad spiral of running like shit for a long time, you are probably tilted without even knowing it.

Basically, in one of videos Brian Townsend said that if someone is having a downswing even if he plays good he starts thinking that he plays bad and searches for his leaks (which of course he doesn't have), but that thinking changes his play style and thereby he plays bad. I don't know if I explained it well, but I hope You will get the point.

cosmo nailed it
100k hands downswing is only for limits above 600nl ...
anything under it is bad playing imo

On August 19 2007 07:50 tokeweed wrote: i'd transfer to another site for awhile...

he's playing couple sites

On August 19 2007 08:14 tiemyshoe wrote: watching some cardrunners videos where they are winning take a break away from the computer after playing a bad session (go outside and go for a walk for 20 minutes)

i agree, take a walk + physical excersises

On August 19 2007 07:34 rANDY wrote: maybe get 10 hours or so with the best LP coach you can, it might help you identify spews if you do have them, and if not it may reassure you that your playing well.

this or get a friend from your stakes to watch your game and talk to you over mic

On August 19 2007 09:49 JYang wrote: i just took a 2 week break also, but came back knowing that poker is still the easiest way to make a lot of money =/

i say the opposite, no break, no running away from problems, you should start playing 6-8h/day. you start tilting? you try not to ( maybe sounds silly, but you can't stop tilting/tilt less until you get used to playing when you lose money - everyone can control their emotions, it's up to us how we feel ), maybe you try tighten up till you stop tilting or play more tables just grinding/robot style. The more you play the more you can win, cause you are a good player, right? so play more, so that bad break can end quickly. Face your problems at the tables, don't give up, after some bad beats in one session, play with thoughts that you will get all the money back and you will win eventually ( not that you have to break even in 10 hands after taking two beats, but that you will win if not in this hour, than in next )

and start meditating finally

oh, and you can try to stop listening to music while you play, cause it's also in some way running away from your emotions, trying to improve you state of mind with no effort on your side

but i'm playing lower than you, so you can think i know crap ; o

Playing more? I dont think thats the best idea. I would suggest rather playin lower stakes than usual until You feel comfortable and only 2 tables to max concentrate. After every session study your hands by PT, study equity, paste you troublesome hands here to discuss. I know that these advices look very simple but there is a method in simplicity!

On August 20 2007 07:42 MadeInPolanD wrote: say the opposite, no break, no running away from problems, you should start playing 6-8h/day.

This is suicide

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...&Number=8457727&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1
http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls

Very eye opening.

On August 20 2007 08:15 Dave.Gee! wrote: Playing more? I dont think thats the best idea. I would suggest rather playin lower stakes than usual until You feel comfortable and only 2 tables to max concentrate.

cause looking at beats is so improving your game? and numbers help you with tilt?


i did what i said, as i said lower (NL200) and i think he can play NL1k - he normally plays higher, and grind for 6h/day 6 tables

Your advices are pretty ridicolous - maybe he should just play poker (no eat, no sleep lol).

And how do you know if there beats not leaks?

On August 20 2007 08:54 Dave.Gee! wrote: Your advices are pretty ridicolous - maybe he should just play poker (no eat, no sleep lol).

great contrargument, congrats!

On August 20 2007 08:54 Dave.Gee! wrote: And how do you know if there beats not leaks?

beacause he was a winner for a year on NL1k?

Well, I dont think it really matters whats possible, probable and whatever. The important thing is to find a good solution and that is to play a lot and analyze a lot, but try not to change too radically anything. As its true that often the biggest mistake you can make is to change whats actually working. But really - one must play and analyze a lot to improve a lot and to win a lot and thats all that matters. (So stop encouraging people to take breaks and play 2 tables, breaks are ok, when youre a tilting monkey like me, but they dont really help your game)

For me, luck has more to do with how good I play in a given session as that is not something entirely under my control I would think. Usually when Im unlucky to lose a lot, Ive been unlucky to play bad. If one achieves a 4BB/100 winrate with a relatively low variance and always plays his A game, his variance will be almost non existant. And 5-6BB/100 is definitely possible at 5-10 and 10-20 Id think.

On August 20 2007 08:23 tomson wrote: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...727&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1 http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls Very eye opening.

wow it probably took me an hour to read but very nice thread indeed

A downswing is definitely a string of bad luck laced with bad play. Say you lose 10 buys, then will start to play a little differently and produce more leaks or just plain tilt. and that contributes to more spew age. It's really really hard to keep your focus and play your A game through huge runs of cold decking. You might be actually playing your B or C game without even knowing it and not be necessarily tilted.

I've had -35+ buy in downswing over 150k hands just a few months ago after a huge upswing. Now I'd say about 75 percent of the money lost would be due to coolers, bad beats, and just shit that Lee Jones dishes out (never had this bad of a run in the 5 years i've played online poker). And the other 25 percent would be me being the tilt monkey that I am and start attempting to bluff stations, call thin, 3 bet thin, etc etc.

It's super hard to keep your cool during these periods but yes. You gotta really up the discipline in yourself and continue to play your A game or find the leaks you've developed through bad habits.

A 100k+ hand downswing for a winning player is definitely possible and a very real possibility. Although not 100 percent of the money lost will be due to bad luck unless the guy is a machine/monster/beast that is immune to any type of tilt or rattling. The tilt and steaming IS a part of the downswing folks...

And Breaks are really really helpful to refresh and rejuvenate yourself if you're a huge tilt monkey like i used to be. went busto last early December after a downswing + huge tilt session so i took all of December and the early part of Jan off and away from poker.

I played stoned yesterday and I had a distortioned image on my opponents, as thinking they had hands when not and viceversa
When you're on tilt something similar happens and you dont notice it untill the end of the session. You have bad reads and you dont even know it becouse you're not under control.
But some part of my head still thinks I had a bad run yesterday, lol

You guys are strong... I go on 15-20k downswings and completely freak out and stop playing for weeks.

On August 20 2007 08:23 tomson wrote: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...727&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1 http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls Very eye opening.

Link on the bottom is broken

Tiger Woods adjusts his golf game every day. If you think there is nothing that can be tinkered with that might improve your game you are simply lying to yourself. It's not only leaks that can be adjusted in your poker game. It's little plays that a profitable that you aren't doing. It's little folds that save you a big blind here and there. Small adjustments add up quite a bit over the long haul.

On August 20 2007 20:22 Drowsy wrote: Show nested quote + On August 20 2007 08:23 tomson wrote: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...&Number=8457727&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1 http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls Very eye opening. Link on the bottom is broken

http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/ then click Variance Demo.

erm
it's probably mentioned in that thread, and is more nit-picky than anything
but tilt has to be factored in to his examples since tilt is going to affect a persons bb/100 and stdev which are the values he's using for the program.

doesn't really change much though! that program is still one of my favorite things to play with, especially if im running bad or unsure of myself

ahhhhhhh

i just did a calculation based on my results from last week, 3.8ptbb and 47stdev.

i could have a 90k hand breakeven stretch.. and this is the worst results from like 10 refreshes

im scared

EDIT: wow.. i just did 5 more refreshes, and some are even in the negative after 100k hands!

lol donkaments

250k hands break even on PS was possible for me at least

I was winning at other sites, and after those 250k hands it has picked up on PS as well. there can be huge difference between players running good and bad over really big samples. these days unfortunately its all part of the game because the average level has gone up so much the swings and variance are simply much bigger. of course you shouldnt start using this post as an excuse for running bad because a lot of people do play worse when running bad, but it doesnt need to be.

also this goes mostly for 3/6+ as far as i know i havent heard of a single good player that moved down in limits going break even over large samples on the lower limits.

On August 21 2007 02:12 tomson wrote: Show nested quote + On August 20 2007 20:22 Drowsy wrote:   On August 20 2007 08:23 tomson wrote: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...727&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1 http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls Very eye opening. Link on the bottom is broken http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/ then click Variance Demo.

ah Thanks, it was only broken cause I tried to right click->save target as, works otherwise.

in times like these its probably good to look at CR vids or watch someone else good play / they watch you play and try to notice the differences

On August 21 2007 14:24 MezmerizePLZ wrote: in times like these its probably good to look at CR vids or watch someone else good play / they watch you play and try to notice the differences

agreed 100%... sweating and getting sweated helps soo much to improve your game