[NL100] Pair + OESD vs 2 overs + Flush draw

Submitted by : k2o4

Alright, this spot sucked . Due to history/timing/betsizing I put him on AKs clubs . But even knowing that I wasn't sure what to do, cause he had 2 overs + a flush draw vs my pair + OESD. Do I basically just have to fold here, cause every hand he does this with beats me other than a bluff, and I'd have to be sure he was bluffing?

Also, I calculated it and I'm ahead right now, but if I lose the OESD (even if I keep the blocker club) I'm behind . If I lose the blocker club I'm behind . So if I get in this situation without the blocker club and the OESD adn I know he has AKs or better, it's a fold?

PokerStars Game #16822860637: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/04/18 - 16:19:14 (ET)
Table 'Arachne II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: vzoli ($277.40 in chips)
Seat 2: k2o4 ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: birdzai ($97 in chips)
Seat 4: Queento ($223.15 in chips)
Seat 5: kubbi ($72.05 in chips)
Seat 6: becky74 ($57.80 in chips)
vzoli: posts small blind $0.50
k2o4 : posts big blind $1

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to k2o4
birdzai: folds
Queento: raises $3 to $4
kubbi: folds
becky74: folds
vzoli: folds
k2o4 : calls $3

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $8.50)

   
k2o4 : checks
Queento: bets $7
k2o4 : raises $15.50 to $22.50
Queento: raises $196.65 to $219.15 and is all-in
k2o4 : calls $73.50 and is all-in

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $200.50)

   

River (Pot : $200.50)

   

Showdown
k2o4 : shows (a pair of Fives)
Queento: shows (a flush, Ace high)
Queento collected $197.50 from pot

Summary
Total pot $200.50 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: vzoli (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: k2o4 (big blind) showed and lost with a pair of Fives
Seat 3: birdzai folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Queento showed and won ($197.50) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 5: kubbi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: becky74 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

if your read was exactly as you say it was, then you need to get it in 100 percent. your play was fine imo (not to mention you have plenty of FE vs many hands that he could be holding, such as a 6,7, another 5, 99,1010,etc, because you c/r)

the thing that is confusing me is the overall situation - If you have a small pocket pair and you are POSITIVE someone has shoved over you with 2 overs + a flush draw, should you fold or call? You're pretty much always behind even if you have a blocker in your hand... by calculating it I was only ahead if I had the OESD and the blocker club. If I lost either I was behind.

I'm guessing that since you're basically never more than 45-55 and there's already money in the pot, the odds say it's a must call?

yeah but its such a small percent that you have to call because you already have money invested
if you both were 100$ - 100$ on the flop, and he shoves all in with AKs , then youd fold if the hands were face up

If you have 22$ invested and he raises you 80$ more, then you call

If you want an EV calc, here it is
If you had 5s 5d and had 45% equity

.45(127.50) - .55(73.50)
57 - 40

+17$ ev