I'm purchasing a license for CREV soon and want to use it to work on my blind game a ton. I'm a little bit of a boob when it comes to figuring out ideal blind defense ranges (even away from the table) so I was hoping to get some criticism / insight from you guys on how you'd do it.
For the sake of this hypothetical let's imagine both players ONLY check postflop.
Assumptions:
- SB opens 55%.
- SB opens to 2x.
- SB folds to 3bet 70%
- SB calls 3bet 22%
- SB 4bets 8%
- Hero's 3B size is 6BB when he 3bets.
Immediate considerations:
- SB needs to succeed 60% of the time for his steal to break even.
- Hero's 3bet needs to succeed 63% of the time to show a tiny profit.
- Hero is getting 3:1 on a call and only needs 25% equity to break even.
So things start getting pretty fuzzy for me straight away.
On the one hand, I only need 25% equity against a loose range to call, so in theory I could profitably call with a ton of complete junk hands, while simply 3betting all hands that have an edge on his 3bet calling range for value (removing some of the bottom of that value range and adding in some bluffs to account for his 4bets).
On the other hand, if I defend the top 40% of his range (22% of hands) then I will show profit.
So, where do you start? How do you determine bluff frequency and based on what stats? What do you call with? What do you 3b for value? When is your range linear v polarized?
Where do you guys see poker going in the coming years? Is it possible to make a living of $20.00/hr or so at NL50 and/or NL100 in 2014? Will it be possible for years to come?
Will the fish dry out and the regs get too solid for any kind of living to be made? What are your opinions?
I just ask because I'm dedicating a lot of effort into poker right now. It's just a hobby because I love strategy games, but the more videos I study, the more session reviews I conduct, and the more I start to make tighter folds and thinner valuebets and bluff more effectively, the more hooked I get.
My goal is to be playing NL50 by the end of the year. I'm at NL10 now and I expect to be at NL16 next month. Is it still possible or viable for someone in my shoes (if I work hard enough) to be a solid NL50 reg and be able to make a decent wage for a few years?
These questions don't have definite answers, but I'd love for this post to be a discussion of qualified speculation.
Edit: "I'd love for this post to be a discussion of qualified speculation" in this case means that I appreciate any and all opinions regarding the poker industry, and would prefer if people would show me the courtesy of not just blithely assuming I'm some lost delusional child with big poker dreams that needs to be set straight about the harsh realities of poker.
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