Kick, Push

Lots of random shit to talk about. First off, here's my April graph so far of me running like a kenyan (which means good btw):



I had a long talk with one of my "mentors" at this game, whom I owe a shitton of any semblance of my poker success to (he's the one that originally got me into poker). I mentioned that I wanted to get to 5/10 quickly, but I feel uncomfortable with the fact that I don't think I'm one of the best 400nl players at ftp or something. He later ended up mentioning that the best ways to get better were to play more HU, and also start taking some more shots at higher games when there's a good reason to (a fish and a not-as-tough lineup, for example). So today I played some 5/10 and 3/6 which resulted in a 2k win which is nice. Here are some winning hands:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/668629 - lol monkey regs
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/668628 - Pretty tough spot with 2 pair vs aforementioned monkey reg
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/668630 - Kinda a meh spot either way
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/668631 - Somewhat of a hero call



Next up is I'm going to vegas on the 9th til the 19th. I'm gonna meet up some people I know IRL and online which will be pretty cool. I'm still 20 so I can't play any of the circuit events or anything, but I will def play some cash games on the side and hope to not get carded. To add to my April boomswitch, turns out one of my old War3 buddies who I used to let stay at my house for SoCal LANs back in the day is a 7-star VIP huge balla degen at Caesars so he got me a room there for free for the entire 10 days. Fucking awesome :D Anyone gonna be in Vegas that time?

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(90% 2/4, 9% 1/2, 1% 3/6 where I got 2 outered for stacks TT)

I love Fridays so, so much. In March alone I was up like 6-8k on Fridays. The amount of donks and shit is just ridiculous and I always do really well on those days. Today I had my best cash game day ever, +4.2k . Unfortunately I got raped in SCOOP 3 and some small FTP tourneys but whatever, this was a good day.

Hand of the Day: http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/665960
Don't you love it when people ship you a free 30" monitor?

I only ate 2 bagels all day, time to eat some left over pizza for dinner :| balla.

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March, despite breaking up with my gf early on, was pretty amazing. I managed to run fucking awesome early and whereas it's kinda stabilized towards the end, I have the utmost satisfaction with the month.

+11.2k net cash game profit
-1.5k donkament results
+1.8k rakeback
= 11.5k

Playing a lot more 2/4 now, and cashed out around 10k this month alone, so I'm happy. Stats have stabilized to around 23/19 with a 6% 3bet so I'm officially a tag (gone are the days of being 28/24 with like 10% 3bet but it's just way too high variance and easy to get raped TT).

Going to play SCOOP this April, so I'd like to get a few thousand onto Stars if possible (I give FTP), anyone wanna do a trade (min 500)? Known posters please (sniderstyle and uptown can vouch for me as well) .

Year to Date Results:
+ Show Spoiler +

Which, including everything, puts me at about ~38k on the year

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Is what I got...

I told myself I wouldn't check results, but I just had to!



At around hand 1.8k I had busted in some 35k gtd after being healthy on chips and just losing a ton of hands and was overall very tilted. So I decided to check results being the zero discipline newbie that I am and was like LOL i'm up 2k? Then I ate some leftover pizza from last night, played some video games (valkyria chronicles for the ps3 ftw), came back and played more and won another grand.

Brag: 3.3k day to offset the -6k mini-ds as of late
Beat: Can't even not check results for just ONE day
Variance: Ate a bowl of cereal and dominos pizza yesterday, along with today. Shitty diets ftl.

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Just a quick update. March was going fucking great but I am currently ds'ing :[. Hopefully I can still maintain a 5 figure month. With that said, I'm not going to look at results for the rest of the month k2o4 style. GL me.

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Following my February tradition of posting graphs that resemble IRL objects...



So I've been running good as of late. It's nice being this close to a 10k month. Still not a 100% 2/4 reg but I'm working on it.

Decided to take Spring Quarter off from school, so I am fated to continue this lonely life of grinding :[. Trying to get my life on a healthier track, but I'm still too damn lazy to get a consistent work out schedule going on. I'm playing more basketball these days though which I love, occasionally with this pretty cute girl (reboundaments??) who tells me about her 2 dollar home game SNGs that she plays with her friends lmao, bustos. Also gonna take some time in April to getting my G37 modded, so maybe in a month or so I'll provide some more pics to this blog that don't have to do with graphs that resemble mountains or animals and shit.

Oh and a hand to share:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/654792
Douchey nit reg tries to angle shoot a fish, gets karma'ed up the ass

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Running well this month, hope it keeps up, especially after the fact that..

my gf and I broke up :[ didn't last so long, and I'm not gonna get into it more than that but yeah..it's affecting me pretty significantly emotionally. Today I played 11 minutes of 200nl and just felt like shit so I just quit (though I did make $290 lolz). I just don't have the urge to really grind it out now.

Most of this heater is at 2/4. My current plan is just playing 2/4 during the evenings and when games die, play 200nl. It's kind of a sad state of affairs to see just how crappy the 400nl+ games are past a certain time frame, oh well.

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What a crazy month. Started off with me winning a 2000 BB pot (see earlier blog posts/HOTW), then just spiraling backwards again. Spending more half the month in the red wondering why in god's name FTP has decided to buttfuck me this month isn't a good feeling. Eventually, I decided to stop my 12 tabling style, which was bringing in a lot of hands but I just miss the overall control and sense I have when I play 6 tables.

Most of the losses were from 2/4, but a good amount of wins were from 3/6 and 5/10 wherein I played very few hands but was able to make a good amount, so the shot-taking evened itself out and the rest is just pure 1/2. It's really sick running 6000 god damned dollars below EV, as I'd be near a 5ptbb winner if my true winnings matched my EV winnings. I'm hoping it'd just pick up in March or something though.

As far as 2/4, I took 3 shots and 2 of the 3 ended disastrously. Such is the nature of 400nl, it's really sick, I have a giant roll now but I don't really feel comfortable playing 2/4 full time now. Just sick, sick swings. For now I'm just going to play mostly 1/2 and mix in good 2/4 tables here and there as I transition.

So, all in all I've made about 7.5k to 8k this February, which is pretty nice overall, I don't have that many complaints . That's it for me for the month, GL all.

Year to Date graph:
+ Show Spoiler +

edit: oh yeah, I've got a funny hand to share. ZEEEEEEEEEBOOOOOOOOO

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/639840

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I feel like what I'm about to say has a lot of merit, so please don't just disregard it as another whine/EV post .

I know a lot of you have your own reservations regarding variance, luck, EV programs and shit. From what I'm told, the "All In EV" is the only thing that should be considered as legitimate/accurate, so that's what I'll be using.

Here's my year so far, which isn't the main point of this blog post:



This is over a sample of 90k hands on the year, and this is 95% at 1/2, rest 2/4, so I'm running effectively 25 bi below EV, and it seems like my preflop "strategy" is breakeven.

HOWEVER



This is my friend's graph, who I won't name but plays on Stars, with the stakes being split between 1/2 to 3/6 over a sample of roughly 300k hands. Even if we were to give him the benefit of the doubt and say this is ALL 3/6 (which it isn't), he's running 60 buy ins ABOVE EV with a breakeven preflop "strategy".

Conclusions:
1. The TRUE long-run could be something in the field of millions of hands.
2. In just the field of probability alone, if it is possible (and evidently it is) for someone to run like my friend, it is equally as possible for someone to run the complete opposite.
3. What do we make of players who have done well in the past but not anymore? Is it possible they just ran gloriously?
4. Most importantly, if someone is going to run THIS WELL over the entire course of a year, what do you think that does for his psyche and mentality/perspective approaching this game? It's truly life-changing, not only the money he's able to make (which he shouldn't even be entitled to), but the stress/emotional health factor of poker is substantially lessened. How would you like to be this player?

Just something to think about.

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Quick update, I'm effectively even. February starts NOW bitches. Not gonna let variance/ftp keep me down.

A nice hand
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/629009 - call overbet with the 3rd pair ez

edit: oh shit HOTWed.

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