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February |
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ToT)MidiaN(  United Kingdom. Mar 01 2013 12:05. Posts 5070 | | |
After a good January I expected more of the same in February, but it was not to be. I set 3 goals at the end of January and I failed on each one.
The first and foremost goal was to get back on track with SNE by getting in greater than SNE volume in Feb. I fell a long way short and only managed to play enough to make 50,108.55 VPPs, putting my yearly total to 113,467.52, about 50k VPPs short of SNE pace. I've never been a high volume player so this is a lot for me, but given all the time I have, I really ought to do better. I do have a poor internet connection which has slowed me down and there has been a couple of other reasons for the lack of volume. One reason is that I got a new car and I've managed to tally up ~2k miles in the 3 weeks since I got it at a cost of almost £500 in Petrol and a lot of hours away from the tables. Secondly my social life was way busier than normal and I think there was probably only 1 day in the entire month where I did not spend most of the day out the house despite poor weather on the whole. Also, later in the month I replaced 500NL Zoom with 100NL Zoom tables so that obviously negatively impacted the amount of VPPs I could make per hour.
As disappointing as it is to not get in the volume I'd hoped to, I wouldn't mind that much if I hit my other 2 goals. I aimed to make a positive EV winrate at 500NL Zoom, and in short; I failed miserably. I've now played almost 100k hands of 500NL Zoom this year and I've "made" -$8.4k in EV. I have never played any limit of NL and had a negative winrate over 100k hands so I'm struggling to deal with this at the moment. I can't help but feel like I've ran atrocious, and I certainly have ran AK/QQ/KK into better hands way more than opponents have into me, flopped set % of <10, and when I do hit one have frequently ran into overset/straight/flush etc. way more than in my favour, but after a sample as big as this I also have to consider the possibility that I might only be barely better than a breakeven player running poorly at best, or sadly, perhaps even a slight long term loser. Maybe I've been "coolered" so much because I'm being outplayed, perhaps people are making hero folds vs me in some spots where I wouldn't fold in their spot. I definitely need to rethink some spots and see where I'm going wrong. I'm definitely motivated to improve because if I cannot play 500NL without donating, then there is no way I'm going to achieve SNE. If I 8 table 200NL+500NL Zoom I can make SNE with a little over 3 hours a day average, if I 8 table 100NL+200NL Zoom, that jumps to about 4.5 hours a day, which is simply too much for me. I couldn't sustain that for a month, let alone a year. Hell, looks like I can't even sustain 3 hours a day let alone 4.5 hours so I really need to plug leaks etc asap or just reduce my goals.
I've managed much better at 200NL Zoom overall and I had a positive winrate there in February also, but sadly not as big as the 4 EV bb/100 winrate I had aimed for. It's clear to me that 200NL Zoom is considerably easier than 500NL Zoom (Duh), but I don't feel like the gap is as big as the results I've had so far this year indicate. Yes it's tougher, but there's also slightly less winrate ate up in rake and a lot of the same players play both 200NL and 500NL Zoom (Though admittedly, not the best of the regs) so it shouldn't be THAT much tougher.
I avoided MTTs this month, and only played in the Quarterly $1mm freeroll, but busted not too far short of the bubble on a flip.
Obligatory screenshot:
Monthly summary:
VPPs: 50,108.55
Cash: -$5,067,31 (Not including rakeback and bonuses)
MTTs: +$0
I'm not going to set any win x or achieve x winrate goals this month. I really ought to pay less attention to short term results anyway. It's clear that you can crush one month and get crushed the next without doing much different (As is proved by my January and February results, although I conceed January's success was largely due to running way above EV), but I would like to put in a lot of volume. SNE was always the goal but I can see that quickly slipping away, especially as I have a bunch more social obligations in March which will severely hamper how much I can play. I'm mainly just hoping to rebuild confidence at 100NL+200NL Zoom early in the month and then get back into 500NL zoom if I can and not lose too much ground on SNE if possible. If I can not lose too much ground with SNE and end the month with enough confidence that I can win at 500NL Zoom then I'll still have an outside chance of catching up through April/May etc, and if not, then I guess my SNE hopes will be done by the end of next month. We shall see!
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| One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | Last edit: 01/03/2013 13:04 |
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good read, good luck on improving. NL500 zoom is very tough game, I don't have what it takes. Playing SNG/MTT's right now even thought I am at 150k VPP and still very curious about SNE. |
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| | Last edit: 01/03/2013 13:14 |
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 01 2013 15:18. Posts 13127 | | |
Stay focused, you got the skills, just gotta wait for the hot streak to kick in. |
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lebowski Greece. Mar 01 2013 16:02. Posts 9205 | | |
100k sample is way too small of a sample imho
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| new shit has come to light... a-and... shit! man... | |
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Mar 02 2013 00:33. Posts 5329 | | |
i don't think any regs expect to have 12 winning months at 500zoom this year, if they do then they're prob the very best and play a low variance style as well.
here's a pic that shows some pretty crazy variance, biggest winners/losers from 2/4 to 10/20 so far this year.
+ Show Spoiler +
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| One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings | Last edit: 02/03/2013 00:36 |
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Fayth Canada. Mar 02 2013 04:31. Posts 10085 | | |
lol takechip biggest loser, and he's so good -.-
poker is depressing sometimes |
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| Im not sure what to do tomorrow when I see her, should I shake her hand?? -Floofy | |
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ToT)MidiaN( United Kingdom. Mar 02 2013 04:31. Posts 5070 | | |
Yea def a few names on that losers list that i expected to be fairly big winners like MrGamblerr and i know forhayley has been around for a while with a lot of success and obv takechip. Tiny numbers of hands played for a couple of them but variance is def a bitch |
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| One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | Last edit: 02/03/2013 04:33 |
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maloyd 300k hands and -43k$ - i wonder what he's thinking? "it's only a downswing"? : O |
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| Make it rain$$$ | Last edit: 02/03/2013 06:11 |
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Ket United Kingdom. Mar 02 2013 19:17. Posts 8665 | | |
keep up that volume.. old jamie could only have wet dreams about having a 100k hand month and calling it "falling short" of hard-work goals! |
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assassin Poland. Mar 07 2013 07:04. Posts 33 | | | |
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| | Last edit: 07/03/2013 07:10 |
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