Fucking Cyprus bullshit

geopolitical risk too OP
Although at the end of the day it's just 1 trade and nothing you can't come back from. You can just chalk this one up to variance

both Euro and USD is equally fucked

I was anticipated that the USDX would go back down to 81, maybe at least 81.2. I did try to go short Usd/Jpy but couldn't get my order hit. The loss is less than 1% of my equity, and it's no big deal, but just a little frustration. (moreso because I couldn't get out even after my broker opened, and then somehow kept getting into positions by clicking "close position." Hopefully my broker will refund the loss on the unwarranted positions.

I hear there is going to be a vote on Tuesday about the Cyprus stuff, and everyone's really gloomy about. Though, however, I am also hearing that most of the bank accounts that are getting robbed belong to Russians, not Cypriots.

move and adjust your stop-lost's

Seems like one of those, whatever happens the Euro will take a hit. USD is crap but considered a safe haven.

On March 17 2013 16:59 Trolala wrote: move and adjust your stop-lost's

I had one, however, you can't adjust anything once the weekend hits. Also, once price GAPS below your stop, it becomes useless.

Made up for the loss by going long at 1.2895. Got stopped out a little too early, though. Meh. If price returns to that level within the week, I will enter long again. However, I will put a stop inc case the level breaks, which I highly doubt. If it does, then I'm looking for 1.27.

are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

On March 18 2013 17:11 Ket wrote: are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

I am looking to get a trading job, but I will most likely have to relocate, so I'm saving up money. I'm doing retail for now, but I don't like doing the scalping and staring at screens. I just look at the chart, identify a few areas and then come up with a small plan, put in my limit orders and leave. If you scalp, the rake can fuck you, but if you hold your trades for a long time, the rake is nothing. Though, you have to worry about roll over, though that can also help you. I pay about 1.5-2.5 pips on average per total position. (entry and exit combined, unlike faggot stocks.)

I'm trying to get better at "freerolling" my winnings, meaning I add on whenever I get an extra MMR (minimum margin requirement) which is usually around $20. (I trade micro) The bigger guys have to worry about management fees, commission, and other stuff because they are paying for extra information and order books and whatnot. I just try to buy low and sell high. Been doing this for a year and I haven't come close to busting yet. Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life.

On March 18 2013 17:11 Ket wrote: are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

The latter category does exist but are rarely successful. The successful ones are usually the guys who were trading at a professional desk but have enough confidence in their edge that they are willing to take on 100% of the risk so they don't have to share their profits with a firm. Top traders at trading firms don't stay very long as they either go start their own hedge funds or go retail for more freedom in their lifestyle.

If you are at the least decent at poker, then you have a very big edge. I've talked to a few poker players on a forex forum and they are similar to me, and on 2+2, their investing subforum is pretty informative too

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Wipe that smileticon off your damn post, RIGHT THIS MINUTE!

USDX in pic above.

But really, the red day where the black line is when I went long eur/usd. Around the top, but just a few ticks/pips away from the top/bottom. (usdx for ticks top/ eur/usd for pips/bottom.)

I don't like trading based off fundamentals or technical. People like to say that past results does not guarantee future performance, but one can exploit people in poker due to past results. I try to think of areas where brokers and interbanks are going to minimize their risk and let others take their exposure off their balance sheets.

Eur/Usd did break the 1.29 level, but it just did a 75 pip move in a minute right now, so I gotta check that out.

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On March 19 2013 14:51 2c0ntent wrote: Glad to see profitability. I'd like to learn a bit about how you search for trades of that type.

I guess there are a few fundamentals I follow and that's things like quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates soon, maybe within the year or by 2016, which is when they have it planned. They will also be selling off their balance sheet to counter the dollar from getting too strong too fast. Best time to buy up the dollar was just before the new year, imo.

It's a bit hard to explain how I see these trades because when I look at the chart, I'm looking for a smooth curve down or up, or a very, very tight price range that persists, or use previous lows/highs on a large time frame as points of reference.

Daily charts of Eur/Chf, Usd/Hkd, and Aud/Usd. I wanted to go long eur/chr around august last year but was too much of a noob back then. Did manage to get long in usd/hdk but didn't like the profit per pip, so I took my money out to use elsewhere. The Aud/Usd shows two points of reference which you can see the latest doji pierced through. I forget what happened around that time, but I got stopped out on that trade. (doji is a candle type, though trading candle formations like a bearish engulfing bar are things I don't do. You might be able to find some luck with them, though.)




Then there's the Usd/Jpy monthly in which these lines help me to see just how smooth the lows/highs are curving. I'm still working on that idea, so I don't trade off it too much, but it helped me to start taking time into account, rather than just price direction.


Buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading, though. Once price leaves a level I like, I won't touch it until it moves to another level I like. I never, ever, ever chase trades.

Based on my experience working at a trading firm, most retail "day traders" have no idea wtf they are doing. In most cases they aren't even thinking about the same thing as the professional traders do. In fact, being on the other side of their trades, one has to wonder whether they are thinking at all. On top of that, people who rely on technical analysis (aka reading charts) are essentially reading tea leaves with all the financial success that can be expected from that activity. You know when you are in a poker game and a dude shows up and plays 100% of his hands and will call pot size all-in bet to see one more card to make his baby flush draw. Then he will turn to you and talk about his deep thought-out strategy for playing poker that he's been using for the past 10 years, and you can tell this dude isn't even playing the same game as you. Without trying to be overly harsh, when it comes to trading, the OP is that guy, and I can only chuckle at "buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading" comment. Yes, because there are all those people out there who purposefully try to buy high and sell low. It's like telling someone about your swimming technique by saying you like to stay on the surface of the water so that you can breathe. Thanks mate, that's helpful.

And another pearl: "Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life." Now raise your hand if you've never heard this at the poker table.

For reference, when I talk about retail day traders I refer to people who move in and out of positions fairly quickly (hours, days, weeks etc.) and not buy and hold guys who buy a stock and hold it for the next few years (mind you, those have a variety of faults of their own). The sad thing is that, just like with poker, there is a lot of information out there based in years and decades of research that shows why what the OP does cannot possibly work, gives historical evidence for it not working (ever) and even goes into some detail regarding what professional traders do, how they do it and why they are able to stay profitable (most of the time).

The financial industry is very good at pitching the idea that retail traders can do well. Incorrect information spread both purposefully and due to ignorance on TV, through books, articles, financial websites only exacerbates the problem, as does people's tendency to lack the drive to search for disconfirming information to the opinion they hold. That tendency is what keeps the fish at the poker table from wondering about their strategy over the course of 10 years of playing.

This post was far longer than what I had intended, but this is type of misconception about trading and investing activities is something I see a lot and it never ceases to amaze me.

As for the OP getting a trading job, the only way I see that happening is if he has a personal connection who would be willing to hire him. Being a (good) poker player, assuming he is, is something that can definitely work in his favor since traders generally view that very positively. However, the truth of the matter is that most trading jobs are already spoken for, as those firms recruit at top schools and have very few positions for anyone who isn't studying there. For example, JP Morgan US, to use a name most people will recognize, in a recent year hired 8 traders for its summer Trading internship (from which most of its full-time hires are made). Two of those positions went to Chicago Booth MBA, two to Harvard MBA, two, I believe to Columbia MBA, and the remaining two to all other applicants, of which there were a couple of hundreds for each spot. Competition may not be as tough at some smaller prop shops, but they aren't exactly talking walk-ins either.

I will conclude with a simple question to the OP. Seeing as you are looking for a job in trader, what type of trading do you want to do, why, and what do you think a person in that job actually does (please don't say buy and sell securities and try to make money)? You don't need to post it here, just know for yourself. Unless your answer to that is crisp, somewhat complete and at least approaches having the facts right, whatever slim chance you may otherwise have for securing a trading job, is actually not slim at all, it's non-existent.

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On March 20 2013 00:35 phexac wrote: Based on my experience working at a trading firm, most retail "day traders" have no idea wtf they are doing. In most cases they aren't even thinking about the same thing as the professional traders do. In fact, being on the other side of their trades, one has to wonder whether they are thinking at all. On top of that, people who rely on technical analysis (aka reading charts) are essentially reading tea leaves with all the financial success that can be expected from that activity. You know when you are in a poker game and a dude shows up and plays 100% of his hands and will call pot size all-in bet to see one more card to make his baby flush draw. Then he will turn to you and talk about his deep thought-out strategy for playing poker that he's been using for the past 10 years, and you can tell this dude isn't even playing the same game as you. Without trying to be overly harsh, when it comes to trading, the OP is that guy, and I can only chuckle at "buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading" comment. Yes, because there are all those people out there who purposefully try to buy high and sell low. It's like telling someone about your swimming technique by saying you like to stay on the surface of the water so that you can breathe. Thanks mate, that's helpful. And another pearl: "Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life." Now raise your hand if you've never heard this at the poker table. For reference, when I talk about retail day traders I refer to people who move in and out of positions fairly quickly (hours, days, weeks etc.) and not buy and hold guys who buy a stock and hold it for the next few years (mind you, those have a variety of faults of their own). The sad thing is that, just like with poker, there is a lot of information out there based in years and decades of research that shows why what the OP does cannot possibly work, gives historical evidence for it not working (ever) and even goes into some detail regarding what professional traders do, how they do it and why they are able to stay profitable (most of the time). The financial industry is very good at pitching the idea that retail traders can do well. Incorrect information spread both purposefully and due to ignorance on TV, through books, articles, financial websites only exacerbates the problem, as does people's tendency to lack the drive to search for disconfirming information to the opinion they hold. That tendency is what keeps the fish at the poker table from wondering about their strategy over the course of 10 years of playing. This post was far longer than what I had intended, but this is type of misconception about trading and investing activities is something I see a lot and it never ceases to amaze me. As for the OP getting a trading job, the only way I see that happening is if he has a personal connection who would be willing to hire him. Being a (good) poker player, assuming he is, is something that can definitely work in his favor since traders generally view that very positively. However, the truth of the matter is that most trading jobs are already spoken for, as those firms recruit at top schools and have very few positions for anyone who isn't studying there. For example, JP Morgan US, to use a name most people will recognize, in a recent year hired 8 traders for its summer Trading internship (from which most of its full-time hires are made). Two of those positions went to Chicago Booth MBA, two to Harvard MBA, two, I believe to Columbia MBA, and the remaining two to all other applicants, of which there were a couple of hundreds for each spot. Competition may not be as tough at some smaller prop shops, but they aren't exactly talking walk-ins either. I will conclude with a simple question to the OP. Seeing as you are looking for a job in trader, what type of trading do you want to do, why, and what do you think a person in that job actually does (please don't say buy and sell securities and try to make money)? You don't need to post it here, just know for yourself. Unless your answer to that is crisp, somewhat complete and at least approaches having the facts right, whatever slim chance you may otherwise have for securing a trading job, is actually not slim at all, it's non-existent.

You sound like one of those people who keeps telling me, irl, that it's impossible to ever win at poker, it's completely totally random, there's no fucking sense in ever trying. I hate that type of thinking. If the retail markets were a scam, why don't they just shut it down instead of introducing bullshit legislation like the Frank Dodd act?

When I first started out, I used to only trade off charts, using MA strategies and whatnot, trying to scalp. Never thinking about who's actually doing what. However, I started to realize that that's not what the bigger guys do. I am trying to hold my positions for a very long time, but according to you, I could NEVER get a winning trade, right? I don't know for a fact how the interbanks trade, however, I do understand that they can not buy or sell an entire position all at once, they must do it in parts due to liquidity and market stability. I understand that my broker takes the other side of my trade or matches me in house. Or, am I just talking out of my ass here?

I'm not looking to be a trader right off the bat in a firm, but looking to do something around the office like an assistant or even a fucking janitor or something. (lord knows that I'll need a masters in dish-washing to be a janitor)(I've actually seen a legit job listing wanting a degree for a dish-washer job) I know that these firms don't simply buy and sell to speculate, but to transact customer's wants and needs. Like Apple needing to pay Foxconn or whoever it is that makes their products in China. They have to go through a bank to exchange their money. Or am I completely wrong?

Hence the saying: One may KNOW how to conquer without being able to DO it.

How is it that I kept "knowing" where price would turn around, and started to "do it" with an increased frequency, albeit a slow progression? Literally, am I just getting lucky that many times? The main thing that stops me is NOT sticking to my plan, not allowing enough flexibility with my risk, not having the balls to get into the position in the first place. I got tired of watching price move in the direction I would think it would move, so I started to change how I did things. It seems to be working a little, because the winning trades I've been able to make have been getting bigger and bigger. But that's just probably luck and a very mishap according to you.

Sorry if I sound like I'm pissed or venting, because I am. Fucking dog keeps waking my ass up.

On March 20 2013 01:02 2c0ntent wrote: Show nested quote + On March 19 2013 23:09 Gnarly wrote:   On March 19 2013 14:51 2c0ntent wrote: Glad to see profitability. I'd like to learn a bit about how you search for trades of that type. I guess there are a few fundamentals I follow and that's things like quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates soon, maybe within the year or by 2016, which is when they have it planned. They will also be selling off their balance sheet to counter the dollar from getting too strong too fast. Best time to buy up the dollar was just before the new year, imo. Interesting predictions. My own reason for being long USDX is three-fold. The first part is the stage: The USD is still a primary store of value in the developed world's respective central banks. The second part, the waiting dynamite of the equation, is my interpretation of today's world economic scenario being that the USD's value is depressed globally by excessive credit denominated in USD being issued. The third aspect is that tragic catalyst, where I predict that the global or domestic USD credit bubbles will somehow be "popped". So I'm basically long gamma and trying not to get sucked into blowing my investment wad all at once.. But I think I'm getting hustled buying options on the UUP ETF because the bleed from option premium decay coupled with the .75% of assets(!!) fee that the ETF management charges really hurts over time.. BTW wouldn't it be crazy if we ended up with a one world government after a true global economic collapse enabled the world's central banks (which hold a lot of USD cash reserves) to buy up their countries for pennies on the dollar? That 1%'er thing will sound like a joke (even though its really the .01% today).   Gnarly also said: + Show Spoiler + It's a bit hard to explain how I see these trades because when I look at the chart, I'm looking for a smooth curve down or up, or a very, very tight price range that persists, or use previous lows/highs on a large time frame as points of reference. Daily charts of Eur/Chf, Usd/Hkd, and Aud/Usd. I wanted to go long eur/chr around august last year but was too much of a noob back then. Did manage to get long in usd/hdk but didn't like the profit per pip, so I took my money out to use elsewhere. The Aud/Usd shows two points of reference which you can see the latest doji pierced through. I forget what happened around that time, but I got stopped out on that trade. (doji is a candle type, though trading candle formations like a bearish engulfing bar are things I don't do. You might be able to find some luck with them, though.) Then there's the Usd/Jpy monthly in which these lines help me to see just how smooth the lows/highs are curving. I'm still working on that idea, so I don't trade off it too much, but it helped me to start taking time into account, rather than just price direction. Buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading, though. Once price leaves a level I like, I won't touch it until it moves to another level I like. I never, ever, ever chase trades. I'm going to keep an eye on this charting stuff, pretty interesting to see the real phenomena, in real time, of price discovery.

There are more reasons why I'm long USD, and some include the petrodollar idea. The panama canal has been expanded which will allow major US ports to increase their traffic. The Port of Houston is primarily energy transportation, and with fracking, I can see that America will be exporting more and more and more energy. This could allow Israel to change the maps in the Middle East due to hurting Saudi Arabia's dominance in the region. The US does plan to be the top exporter for a while, and then slow it down around 2025-2030. This will increase the demand for the dollar.

America is going to be exporting a lot of tech and research, and will be able to start increasing their dominance in plastic exports because of the fracking and whatnot. Also, we are getting rid of the jobs in China because outsourcing is becoming less cost-effective over automation. Then you have the military. We're using drones more and more, and keep automating in that field more and more.

I highly doubt that there would be a one world government. Corporations will be able to build their own personal automated armies soon, and I think corporations will replace what we know as governments.