UFC Betting

Something tells me Puerto might reply in this blog xD

That's what we're going for

Mousasi over Gustafsson is a awesome bet with these odds imo
Mousasi is better everywhere except cardio and maybe wrestling, and I do expect to see a much better Mousasi now that he is in the UFC

Well striking and subs he's probably better at (I bet against him vs Kyotaro, won't do that mistake again...).

However: Gus is much bigger, a better wrestler and not horrible on the ground. He also has a very good chin and some high level striking.

Mousasi will probably not win a decision and I just don't see him finishing Gustafsson that often.

Although, I'll happily admit that I'm biased this time despite really liking Mous.

i like gustaffson but he didnt look that good vs shogun which was supposed to be a beatdown. line seems about right i had gustaffson -230 in my head before checking the line. id hate to take either side here

I think Phil de fries is a good bet over mitrione though

This isn't the best card for betting imo, since we have a bunch of European guys that we aren't sure of. Some European fans will say how "good this Swedish fighter is," but then we haven't seen them vs. tough talent, since they built up their record fighting the scrubs in and around their country, where MMA isn't big yet.


• Alexander Gustafsson vs. Gegard Mousasi = I missed the heyday of Mousasi, I've only seen his last 5-6 fights, so I'm just betting Mousasi blindly, also as a way to fade Gustafsson, since I don't think he's that great of a fighter and even if he does win here it won't mean shit cuz he'll get raped by Jon Jones. Mousasi probably has the better striking, but he's an undersized 205`er, and Gustafsson trains with Phil Davis. Also, this is a 5 round fight, and Mousasi will be the one who gets tired first. Lastly, Mousasi WILL NOT win a decision in Sweden vs. Sweden's #1 fighter, so Mousasi has to win ITD. Edit: Gustafsson likes to keep his distance and fight from the outside, but if he does that vs. Mousasi, Mousasi will be at the distance he likes to fight at the most. I think we'll see Gustafsson take it to the ground asap.

• Ryan Couture vs. Ross Pearson = Pearson is the clear favorite, but I put an early bet on Couture at +350, cuz he showed improved striking in his last fight vs. KJ Noons, which Couture should have easily lost, but got gifted a win cuz he was fighting in the same U.S. state where his father is a mega-star, and got the decision win. Pearson has better boxing, but I think the mediocre wrestling with decent BJJ and wanting to fight from the outside will be good for Couture and make it an interesting fight. Pearson will probably win though, but I just had to lay a small bet on Couture at great odds.

• Matt Mitrione vs. Phil De Fries = Mitrione fights from the outside with his decent boxing, and has decent TDD and is strong in his upper body, since he's a former American football player. De Fries has nothing for Mitrione in the stand up, and will want to get on the inside to clinch and get the trip. I'd be really surprised if De Fries got the take down by a double-leg take down.

• Brad Pickett vs. Mike Easton = I always fade Easton cuz he's a little bitch who's been on the right side of a couple close decision wins, especially one that I always think about that pisses me off, which is his "win" over Jared Papazian in the UFC. Easton is the better overall technical striker, Pickett has more power, but I think this fight will go to decision, and I believe Pickett will win that, mostly cuz Pickett is European and has a fan base over there, and I don't think black fighters from America who are "over the top" in the way they act in the octagon/cage will be liked by the Swedish fans and judges.

• Diego Brandao vs. Pablo Garza = Garza's height and reach scares me a bit in this one. I'm not worried about Brandao's cardio anymore, but I am worried about Garza keeping the distance and picking at Brandao little by little, since Brandao is the much shorter fighter who throws mostly power punches and will have to jump in to throw them this time or get on the inside. Brandao is the favorite, but Garza isn't dead in the water here.

• Akira Corassani vs. Robbie Peralta = Peralta is going to smash this fuck ITD.

• Reza Madadi vs. Michael Johnson = Johnson should be the favorite, but the way he got man-handled by Myles Jury last time was shocking. Jury didn't do much to him in terms of damage, but he easily got him to the ground and controlled him the whole fight, which worries me here, as I don't know much about Madadi other than he's a grappler with ugly striking, and Johnson is a striker with a decent wrestling bade who can't fight off of his back.
• Tor Troéng vs. Adam Cella = Don't know much about these TUF rejects, but I'd bet Troeng here.
• Chris Spång vs. Adlan Amagov = Spang has good hands, but Amagov trains out of Team Jackson's, which mean he'll have a good game plan going in and will look to stand with Spang at first and then wait for the first chance he can to go for the take down after Spang throws a big punch or clinch with him for the take down. Looking at their records, it seems like it would be a bang-fest, but I think this will be a boring fight where Amagov will win by controlling the fight (decision), unless Spang can get the quick KO in the first round. If Amagov doesn't go for the take down, then it's anyone's fight in the stand up, and Spang will win if they only strike and it goes to decision.

• Marcus Brimage vs. Conor McGregor = I like Brimage, especially after he exposed top prospect, Jimy Hettes. I've never seen McGregor fight, but he's been touted as the next best prospect, but he's never fought any top people before, so fighting in the UFC for the first time + fighting a guy who has more UFC experience and is better than his past opponents leads me to believe Brimage will be the winner here. But like I said, I've never seen McGregor fight before, so I'm just going off of my gut feeling.

• Ben Alloway vs. Ryan LaFlare = No idea about either of these two.

• Michael Kuiper vs. Tom Lawlor = Lawlor should be the favorite here, but I don't know much about Kuiper to give a good assessment. I do know that he won't knock Lawlor out, so Lawlor either wins by submission or this ends up being a close decision, which is not what Lawlor wants again, as he lost a split-decision in Canada in his last fight vs. the adopted hometown fighter in Francis Carmont, when Lawlor was the clear winner in most people's eyes.

• Papy Abedi vs. Besam Yousef = Betting on Yousef as a way to fade Abedi is what the consensus here is, although I don't know much about Yousef myself.

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I'd make a few parlays with the Swedish fighters at $2 or $3 each, something like this:

• Corassani by decision, Gustafsson by decision, Madadi by decision
• Yousef by submission, Gustafsson by decision, Madadi by decision
• Gustafsson ITD, Corassani by decision, Yousef by submission

Depending on the bookie and how early you place the bets, you can win $100 or more on each.

Mousasi has great submissions, has won 11 times with them, i dont think Gustafsson is going or should take him down

Yea he's good with Subs but except for Kang he haven't subbed anyone good. If he gets all the fight to find one he might, but if Gus boxes for 3-4 min every round and then takes him down just to score points I think he'll have a hard time getting anything going.

I think Gustafsson striking is really overrated
he was so hitable in Shogun fight, even vs a crippled Shogun

I really like Jack Slack articles in striking, and there's a few articles about Gustafsson and Mousasi that you should read if you wanna bet in this fight

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/15...-beat-k-1s-heavyweight-world-champion
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/11/21...afsson-beat-thiago-silva-UFC-on-fox-5
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/12/9/...acks-breakdown-mma-analysis-technique

Yea as I said I did not really wanna bet it but I read it anyway.

Not good enough at judging stand up fighting to comment really but clearly outpointing Shogun and destroying Thigo Silva seems like something that would indicate that he's decent on the feet. I know Mous is scary as hell but yea.