DFS and Live Hourly Winrate?

threw together 1 quick lineup that im using for everything tonight

PG Rajon Rondo 28.6 swap out
SG Lou Williams 19.2 swap out
SF Draymond Green 16.6 swap out
PF Boris Diaw 19.2 swap out
C Anthony Davis 45.0 swap out
G Chris Paul 47.1 swap out
F Kevin Love 51.9 swap out
UTIL Jeremy Evans 17.4 swap out

mega stars and scrubs tonight. enough overlap with your leans to make me feel comfortable about it

Here's the lineup:
Paul
Knight
Hayward
Stephenson
Deng
Budinger
Love
Patterson
Pachulia


***If I hear Burke is out before rosters lock I will swap in Burks for Stephenson and Chandler for Budinger.

GL guys.

From my personal experience, I can't imagine someone having an expectation at $1/2 of more then $50/hour, unless you are able to find some weird super deepstack 1/2 which I've never seen. My own winrate at $1/2 is much less than $50 an hour, it's probably closer to $20/hour. I have small 1/2 sample size though. If you are getting $35 or more I think you should feel pretty happy about it.

Also, I think if your bankroll hits $7500 you could start sitting at the 2/5 with 100 big blinds, but if you were to hit $1500 or something you should just leave the table since then a too large % of your BR is on the felt at once. You should definitely play 2/5 once your BR hits 10k (as opposed to when your profits hit 10k).

Far as projecting income, I think it's generally good to be conservative and $20/hr seems to be the cap people site for the biggest winners.

Also, instead of the alarm, have you considered a virtual assistant for DFS? Yes, its additional rake, but if you are playing big enough it might be worth it. You can probably use it for alot of stuff.
http://www.asksunday.com/dedicatedplanspricing (something like the dedicated monthly plan billed at 15 minute intervals).

I keep wanting to play NBA DFS but I don't have the time to make it worth it and keep toying with the virtual assistant idea to piggy-back someone's picks kinda like just using a vanguard fund instead of active investing. (Pretty much the assistant would be doing 90% of all activities, mostly simple administrative tasks like setting lineups). Not sure how big I would have to play to actually cover this rake + small kick-back to guy I am piggy-backing. Interested what you DFS grinders think about this strategy. Seems pretty hard to go wrong as long as you can play big enough to cover the rake and the guy plays bigger than you do (condia, obviously is a good example) but perhaps there are problems that I am underestimating or not anticipating. Btw, if any of you want to help a brother out, pm me!

wrt hourly rate at 1/2nl: I think by the time people have samples big enough to matter for 1/2 hourlies they are either $20/hr or less winners or have moved up, so it's kinda pointless.

If you don't mind, can you share your thought process behind what made you narrow it down to that final lineup?

I had almost exactly the same top four picks at each position as you except for SF (included Budinger over Parsons).

For the PF slot, I went with Davis over Love because I thought against a weakened MIL interior, Davis was going to rack up equivalent FP. Also, I got burned locking Love in last week, only to have him pulled for a quad contusion just before tipoff. It was too late on FD to change the lineups. However, obviously looking at how the game went, your call was the far better one (Davis got 2 fouls in the first 5 minutes and sat out for much of the game).

For the PG slot, had the identical top 4 considerations, but went with Jennings over Knight. Jennings has been on a sick run, has a favorable matchup in a fast-paced game. Knight was a heavy consideration, but I didn't like how he had only topped 30 FP once in his last four games and NOP has a slightly better DvPG. Looking at the score so far, Jennings was an absolute bust while Knight is killing it.

You don't have to answer if you feel it's giving away a significant part of your edge, but I'm genuinely curious as to what differentiates the final picks here for us. I mean, I guess we can't predict that Davis is going to rack up 2 pfs before the 1st quarter's half over, but I feel like there must be some considerations that I'm missing that are key here.

Thanks for all the feedback on $1/$2 hourly. I am probably above expectations by the looks of it then. I'm kind of struggling with how to build a live BR since I was formerly an online midstakes MTT reg, but live MTT's are not really possible without a pretty large BR.

-Sanai
I think you are being somewhat results oriented. If you are narrowing it down to the right group of guys each night, you will be successful longterm. A lot of the time I will be really close on 2 players, and one will have a huge day and one will have a dud.

My thought process for building a lineup is this. I first put in my top overall plays. The guys that are great values and are in great matchups. Today it was Patterson, Hayward and Deng. Then I try to decide what positions I want to spend on. This is usually dictated by what value players I'm most confident in OR what top players have great matchups. I tend to put a higher priority on solid value plays at SF and SG since those positions are hard to fill and everyone but the top guys have the potential for a dud, since they rely most heavily on scoring. So Budinger filled that role for me today, although it looks like Draymon Green may have been a better play. From there I just go through my list of 8-10 remaining players I like and try to fit them into the 4-5 remaining spots and see what I like the best. I'm still working on getting this down to more of a math/science. Honestly, it sounds like you are doing pretty much what I'm doing, just got a little unlucky tonight.

Your only error may have been taking NO's defense vs PG's as too big of a factor. They have been significantly worse vs PG's with Roberts starting. Most of the season stats are accounting for Jrue Holiday, so keep that in mind.

I do tend to lean much more towards home players as well. Still trying to backtest exactly how much of a boost they get on average, but I would think its something like 4%.

Feel free to pm me if you have questions or want to talk DFS. I'm more than willing to help.

I've $29/hr so far on 269hr sample, I think anything above $25 is very good, you should prob take the shot when you hit 6k maybe, you can always go back to 200nl to rebuild. GL!

All the talk about how massively weak live is compared to online (and I agree, from the VERY limited time I've played live) and people think the typical winrate is ~10 bb/hr?

Doesn't sound very alluring.

Whoosel, didn't you say you made 130k+ the last two years playing live cash? I wonder how the 10/20 live skill equates to online.

Either way, I'm surprised 200nl live grinders can expect a paltry 20 bucks an hour.

On February 12 2014 23:46 devon06atX wrote: All the talk about how massively weak live is compared to online (and I agree, from the VERY limited time I've played live) and people think the typical winrate is ~10 bb/hr? Doesn't sound very alluring. Whoosel, didn't you say you made 130k+ the last two years playing live cash? I wonder how the 10/20 live skill equates to online. Either way, I'm surprised 200nl live grinders can expect a paltry 20 bucks an hour.

considering you see 30 hands an hour, 10bb/hour is 33 1/3 bb/100! its also a pretty big rake trap. id imagine each player is paying >10bb/100 in rake. tough to really crush

I guess you're right. It's just been a tough few days for me and I was letting the results get to me. Just have to accept that my sample size is still quite small.

Thanks for the offer, I will definitely take you up on it. In the mean time, hope you keep posting on the bigger DFS days, your insights have been very helpful.