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Silver_nz New Zealand. Nov 13 2016 10:31. Posts 5647 | | | |
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Nov 13 2016 13:50. Posts 5330 | | |
Nice. Whereabouts are living now? A Tsunami is about to hit east coast if it hasnt already :0. |
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| One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings | |
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uiCk Canada. Nov 13 2016 16:34. Posts 3521 | | |
My buddy got a 35 to 1 odds on trump on bodog pre party nomination! |
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| I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson | Last edit: 13/11/2016 16:34 |
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Romm3l Germany. Nov 13 2016 18:07. Posts 285 | | |
nice job. it is creditworthy to bet real money on outcomes all conventional wisdom and guys who have a track record of correctly handicapping (nate silver) are saying are longshots. by real money i mean money it would hurt to lose, i.e. where you're showing credible conviction through your actions you think the odds are mispriced (so betting like $10 doesn't count no matter how early it was or favourable the odds were)
some guy in london bet £200k on trump at similar odds |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Nov 14 2016 06:53. Posts 5647 | | |
| | On November 13 2016 12:50 Stroggoz wrote:
Nice. Whereabouts are living now? A Tsunami is about to hit east coast if it hasnt already :0. |
I'm back in the homeland. On the east side, so had to tsunami evacuate last night after the shake. Good times. |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Nov 14 2016 06:56. Posts 5647 | | |
| | On November 13 2016 15:34 uiCk wrote:
My buddy got a 35 to 1 odds on trump on bodog pre party nomination! |
I really wish I had done the same. I would have needed to committed faster to the idea of betting on politics. To just go out and find a place to bet.
same as I wish I had committed to betting on bitcoin sooner.
annnnd committing harder to poker back in 2006. If only. |
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Silver_nz New Zealand. Nov 14 2016 07:07. Posts 5647 | | |
| | On November 13 2016 17:07 Romm3l wrote:
nice job. it is creditworthy to bet real money on outcomes all conventional wisdom and guys who have a track record of correctly handicapping (nate silver) are saying are longshots. by real money i mean money it would hurt to lose, i.e. where you're showing credible conviction through your actions you think the odds are mispriced (so betting like $10 doesn't count no matter how early it was or favourable the odds were)
some guy in london bet £200k on trump at similar odds |
Nice. Yes, this is the sweetest thing. To see the empty suits, the so called "experts", get it so-very-wrong. So purely wrong. Fooled by randomness. Nate himself fooled by noise. Social science and all of the other non-STEM anti-science degree subjects are the next to go, along with the worthless experts like Chomsky and every gender studies professor who built their ivory tower on shaky foundations. I just need to find a way to bet on this... |
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uiCk Canada. Nov 14 2016 17:38. Posts 3521 | | |
| | On November 14 2016 06:07 Silver_nz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 13 2016 17:07 Romm3l wrote:
nice job. it is creditworthy to bet real money on outcomes all conventional wisdom and guys who have a track record of correctly handicapping (nate silver) are saying are longshots. by real money i mean money it would hurt to lose, i.e. where you're showing credible conviction through your actions you think the odds are mispriced (so betting like $10 doesn't count no matter how early it was or favourable the odds were)
some guy in london bet £200k on trump at similar odds |
Nice. Yes, this is the sweetest thing. To see the empty suits, the so called "experts", get it so-very-wrong. So purely wrong. Fooled by randomness. Nate himself fooled by noise. Social science and all of the other non-STEM anti-science degree subjects are the next to go, along with the worthless experts like Chomsky and every gender studies professor who built their ivory tower on shaky foundations. I just need to find a way to bet on this...
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Well to be honest, you'd expect KK to beat AQ, but sometimes the 30% ends up winning. Have to give it to Nate though, he was one of the only few who had greater odds for trump to win out of all the more scientific polls/models and took some slack for even giving trump such "high" odds (I think it was in 20-30% odds range) |
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| I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson | |
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TimDawg  United States. Nov 16 2016 05:35. Posts 10197 | | |
| | On November 13 2016 17:07 Romm3l wrote:
nice job. it is creditworthy to bet real money on outcomes all conventional wisdom and guys who have a track record of correctly handicapping (nate silver) are saying are longshots. by real money i mean money it would hurt to lose, i.e. where you're showing credible conviction through your actions you think the odds are mispriced (so betting like $10 doesn't count no matter how early it was or favourable the odds were)
some guy in london bet £200k on trump at similar odds |
actually wasn't it Nate Silver who thought Trump had a much better shot at winning than most of the other political analysts/handicappers?
i've just heard this across various podcasts so I could be totally wrong of course |
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| online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball | |
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