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Is picking stocks a waste?

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k4ir0s   Canada. Feb 09 2022 06:19. Posts 3478
I've been leaning about investing the past few months, because I stupidly haven't thought about my retirement up until recently. It's not fun using a retirement calculator the first time, and realizing how much you need by X age in order to live off your investments comfortably. If you're not making bank, you're relying on compounding interest. And if a decade similar to 2000 to 2010 happens, it can ruin your plans.

Wondering what the opinions here are on picking your own stocks vs dumping your money in ETFs?

I always see the stat mentioned: Something like 85-90% of investors who pick their own stocks significantly underperform the market. Yet I chose to pick my own stocks, because like everyone else who does it I think I'm capable enough to beat the market. And I assume winning poker players have the temperament to do it. Or am I being retarded? I'm talking about holding med to long-term, not day trading.

Either way, what a time to get into it. The past decade was a bull market and it looks like that may change.

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I dont know what a dt drop is. Is it a wrestling move? -OlyLast edit: 09/02/2022 06:27

PuertoRican   United States. Feb 09 2022 06:50. Posts 13127

I'm interested in this topic, but I am a newb when it comes to stocks.

Hopefully somebody else can get the discussion ball rolling.

Rekrul is a newb 

lostaccount   Canada. Feb 09 2022 14:38. Posts 6186

blessed soulLast edit: 10/02/2022 00:04

lostaccount   Canada. Feb 09 2022 14:46. Posts 6186

blessed soulLast edit: 10/02/2022 00:04

RiKD    United States. Feb 09 2022 14:53. Posts 8992

I have a retirement account that is making Fidelity money but has not really kept up with inflation for me. I have done the stock thing. You are looking for stocks that will 100x or 1,000x at least that is what I look for. Getting into Tesla early is a great example of that or getting into Coca Cola in the early 1900s. My great uncle did the latter and had so much money he didn't know what to do with it. I thought Palantir could be a 1,000x company. I bought it early and then sold it at the top of the GME/AMC/Meme stock pump ups. Honestly, I have no idea if PLTR will 1000x or not. I didn't re-buy the dip. I still think crypto is worth looking into. I am sure a better app than RobinHood will come along as well. I've always liked low cost investments and then HODL value. I don't hate Vanguard. I don't hate Fidelity either I would just go about things differently in the future. Investing in a house away from climate problems and other issues is probably the best investment if you don't mind taking care of it and are not a nomad by nature. Just my 2c. I am not an expert nor a professional.


Bigbobm   United States. Feb 09 2022 20:38. Posts 5511

I've been investing in stocks for over a decade and I'm on par with SP500 even after going pretty big into Tesla in 2012 and still holding that today.

Unless you have some legit insider info, which almost none of us actually have, your best bet is to get an index that follows SP500. Just about every guru bragging about how they can beat the market, are either lying about what they're doing, selling you something, or both.

Its time to stop thinking like a bitch and think smart like a poker player - ketLast edit: 09/02/2022 20:39

Santafairy   Korea (South). Feb 09 2022 20:45. Posts 2233

tesla is up ten thousand percent since 2012 how are you on par with SP500 except by losing everything else

It seems to be not very profitable in the long run to play those kind of hands. - Gus Hansen 

Bigbobm   United States. Feb 10 2022 02:37. Posts 5511


  On February 09 2022 19:45 Santafairy wrote:
tesla is up ten thousand percent since 2012 how are you on par with SP500 except by losing everything else



when you aim for the moon, you win some and lose more.

Its time to stop thinking like a bitch and think smart like a poker player - ket 

hiems   United States. Feb 10 2022 02:55. Posts 2979

K4iros you need money in order to buy stocks...

I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] 

CamilaPunt   Brasil. Feb 10 2022 03:32. Posts 2422

The idea of picking 100x projects is ridic. You can take small shots at promising projects thats it.
Poker background for the mental aspects are legit but the technical analysis is a ton of work.





Stroggoz   New Zealand. Feb 10 2022 10:04. Posts 5329

I just put it in an index fund because I don't have the time, or rather don't want to devote time to learning to beat the market. But it is evident that some people can seriously crush it, as in the case of Jim Simons:

"Renaissance's flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees, is famed for the best track record on Wall Street, returning more than 66 percent annualized before fees and 39 percent after fees over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018."

This guy and his hedge fund either rolled a six a 1000 times in a row or he's got some good info.

One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings 

Bigbobm   United States. Feb 10 2022 15:30. Posts 5511


  On February 10 2022 09:04 Stroggoz wrote:
I just put it in an index fund because I don't have the time, or rather don't want to devote time to learning to beat the market. But it is evident that some people can seriously crush it, as in the case of Jim Simons:

"Renaissance's flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees, is famed for the best track record on Wall Street, returning more than 66 percent annualized before fees and 39 percent after fees over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018."

This guy and his hedge fund either rolled a six a 1000 times in a row or he's got some good info.




He's not playing the same game we're playing.

Its time to stop thinking like a bitch and think smart like a poker player - ket 

spets1   Australia. Feb 11 2022 01:35. Posts 2179

Just buy ETH and DOT

hola 

RiKD    United States. Feb 12 2022 00:12. Posts 8992

FTX just announced they are unveiling a stocks platform. Obv do your due diligence but I would bet it will be better than Robinhood surely.


cariadon   Estonia. Feb 28 2022 22:29. Posts 4019


  On February 10 2022 09:04 Stroggoz wrote:
I just put it in an index fund because I don't have the time, or rather don't want to devote time to learning to beat the market. But it is evident that some people can seriously crush it, as in the case of Jim Simons:

"Renaissance's flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees, is famed for the best track record on Wall Street, returning more than 66 percent annualized before fees and 39 percent after fees over a 30-year span from 1988 to 2018."

This guy and his hedge fund either rolled a six a 1000 times in a row or he's got some good info.




Actually, Simons was a math guy with no real business/stockmarket insights initially. Fascinating story worth a read. Also Market wizards are fun to read.


MezmerizePLZ    United States. Feb 28 2022 22:30. Posts 2598

Unless you really enjoy analyzing companies, thinking about investing, have good temperament, and are fine using energy/time for this, and despite all that have a high chance of underperforming indexes and no way to effectively evaluate if you're making good choices or getting lucky/unlucky, then its best to stick to indexes.

If it is something you enjoy/find interesting then I think its pretty fun to analyze/pick companies. You can always start with a small portion of your portfolio for picking stocks and index most of it. It's mostly not worth it unless you have a passion for it. Most people that try to pick individual stocks are just donking around and being feel players, moving in and out of positions way too frequently. As Mr. Buffett says, only swing at the fattest pitches when a company is in your mind after analysis an obviously good investment to hold for years.


lostaccount   Canada. Mar 03 2022 03:06. Posts 6186

crypto imo better roi than stocks

blessed soulLast edit: 03/03/2022 03:17

Jelle   Belgium. Mar 10 2022 13:59. Posts 3476

From my experience poker players are even worse than the average investor not better. Are you even interested in reading the documents businesses put out? Why spend time on it when you can just buy & hold an index fund, spend 0 effort and be ok

GroT 

lostaccount   Canada. Mar 25 2022 04:49. Posts 6186


  On March 10 2022 12:59 Jelle wrote:
From my experience poker players are even worse than the average investor not better. Are you even interested in reading the documents businesses put out? Why spend time on it when you can just buy & hold an index fund, spend 0 effort and be ok



cause its fun learning to beat the market. anyone can beat the market if u put lots of work in but lots arent that hard working to do so.

blessed soul 

 



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