Analysis of an interesting hand i played

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Daut

United States. Feb 10 2007 17:07. Posts 8955

This might not seem as interesting to some of you as it does to me, but I think this is a really interesting situation. I'll walk through my street by street thinking.

POKERSTARS GAME #8370647007: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($25/$50) - 2007/02/10 - 11:54:47 (ET)
Table 'Siri' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: H@££INGGOL ($5000 in chips)
Seat 3: casinocasino ($12644.70 in chips)
Seat 4: alex987 ($2252 in chips)
Seat 5: $tinger 88 ($4997 in chips)
Seat 6: eskimo ($1072 in chips)
Seat 7: Daut44 ($5123 in chips)
Seat 8: arulx ($11040 in chips)
Seat 9: hotmark777 ($5322 in chips)
hotmark777: posts small blind $25
H@££INGGOL: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Daut44 [4c 5c]
casinocasino: raises $100 to $150
alex987: folds
$tinger 88: calls $150
eskimo: calls $150

I'm in the cutoff, have over 100bb effective stacks against 2 of the 3 players already in as well as position, so this seemed like a pretty good spot to see a flop with a suited connector. This is a pretty trivial call.

Daut44: calls $150
arulx: calls $150
hotmark777: calls $125
H@££INGGOL: folds

So we're seeing a 6 way flop. It feels like play money. The potsize at this point is 950.

*** FLOP *** [3h Kc Ac]
hotmark777: checks
casinocasino: bets $900
$tinger 88: folds
eskimo: raises $22 to $922 and is all-in

Hotmark checked, casino bets out nearly potsize into 5 other players, stinger folds and the shortstack pushes for $22 more. This means, if I were to call, casino wouldnt have the option of raising because this is not a legal raise, so he can only call.

Now, there's no way im going to raise and bluff the dry sidepot, and since casino cant reraise all I have to worry about is the 2 players left to act behind me. One of these players is hotmark, who already checked. The other player is not likely to have a huge hand so I dont really have to worry about them. Also, if they do, im only investing 900 here, I can decide to do something later based on their action. So I flat called.

Daut44: calls $922
arulx: folds
hotmark777: folds
casinocasino: calls $22

Luckily the two other players fold. so now, the shortstack is all in and I am hu with casino with a gutshot+flushdraw. the potsize is now roughly 3700.

*** TURN *** [3h Kc Ac]

casinocasino: bets $1550

Ok, so i turn the nuts and casino bets out kind of weak (about 40% pot). Now here is where the hand really gets interesting. I have 2500 remaining. Most people would consider this a trivial decision, I have the nuts, WITH a redraw, wtf kind of decision do you have here?

Ok, look at the action up to this point. Casino raised utg in an 8 handed game. He then led a 6 way flop with a potsize bet, and then led the turn. Since a player is all in and we have a dry sidepot hes not going to be bluffing at it. So we can rule out QJcc, JTcc and QTcc. Since the A and K on board are both clubs, there are no other strong hand+draws out there.

He also isnt ever bluffing here (dry sidepot). Additionally, theres almost no way he plays weaker aces or middle pair like this ever. That leaves the following hands making up the majority of his range: AA KK AK 33. Outside possibility of A3 and AQ. So lets say 90% of the time he has a set or top two pair here, very very strong hands.

Now, I know if I push he will call, but that isnt the issue. The issue is, is it better to flat call and then possibly save money by folding on a board pairing river?

Consider it this way: If he misses boat and the river isnt a club, he is definitely getting the rest of his money in. If he misses a boat and the river is a club, he STILL may put the rest of his money in, i mean after all the pot would be about 6800, he has 2500 left, and i have position. That makes it really like I get paid off even on a club river. Finally, if the board pairs and he shoves, I still can fold, saving myself money when he hits his boat.

I heavily heavily considered flat calling. But instead, I decided to shove for the following reasons:
1) he always calls
2) he might fold on a club river
3) he might shove a board pairing river with top 2pair and i could fold the winning hand

Obviously if the board pairs A or K ill fold to the shove, he now has a boat no matter what (basically). But if the board pairs 2 or 3 and he shoves, i think I would have to fold, ESPECIALLY if its a club. The reason behind this is he would probably check AK if the river were 2c or 3c, cause now hes not really beating anything (which does mean i lose some value by not shoving the turn if i do indeed check behind here or if he folds to my shove when i bet).

So it seems that reason 3 wont come up very often (1 time in 11 when he has AK), and AK is probably only 20-30% of his hand range.

Reason 1/Reason 2 are related. If the river is any non club he will go all in. Thus, i COULD be losing value 1 in 5 times. This is sort of an issue, but remember that im also saving money 1 in 4.5 tries when the board pairs (and im only folding the best hand maybe 1 in 40).

as for results:

Daut44: raises $2501 to $4051 and is all-in
casinocasino: calls $2501
*** RIVER *** [3h Kc Ac 2s]

*** SHOW DOWN ***
casinocasino: shows [Ad As] (three of a kind, Aces)
Daut44: shows [4c 5c] (a straight, Ace to Five)
Daut44 collected $8102 from side pot
eskimo: mucks hand
Daut44 collected $3713 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $11818 Main pot $3713. Side pot $8102. | Rake $3
Board [3h Kc Ac 2s 7h]
Seat 1: H@££INGGOL (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: casinocasino showed [Ad As] and lost with three of a kind, Aces
Seat 4: alex987 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: $tinger 88 folded on the Flop
Seat 6: eskimo mucked [Qc 8c]
Seat 7: Daut44 showed [4c 5c] and won ($11815) with a straight, Ace to Five
Seat 8: arulx (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: hotmark777 (small blind) folded on the Flop

I got pretty lucky there considering the shortstack had a higher flush draw =).

I think this is really really close, but it seems like calling is actually a better play. I'd like to hear the input of others on this. Maybe I'll post it on liquidpoker and 2p2 and ask opinions of friends.

hope you guys enjoyed a poker post for once, next time more randomness!

3 votes

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut

DooMeR United States. Feb 10 2007 17:14. Posts 8560

i like though process. very indepth. when are you gonna make card runners videos?

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.

newbie.cjb United States. Feb 10 2007 17:32. Posts 3096

i can't see how can u fold if the board paired -__- its really hard

my lose is a win. my wins are nothing.

JYang United States. Feb 10 2007 17:39. Posts 2669

cuz it's obv that he has set/top2... duh

Trey United States. Feb 10 2007 17:44. Posts 5616

theres player allin and hes still betting - hes not afraid of his hand.. gotta be a monster

milkman United States. Feb 10 2007 19:31. Posts 5719

thats an impressive hand, but the most inpressive thing is casino is still there after winning a buyin lol...

Its hard to make a easy buck legally, its impossible to make a easy buck morally.

Refrain[FriZ] Canada. Feb 10 2007 19:37. Posts 1395

I very much enjoyed this analysis. If 2p2/friends have some interesting opinions could you follow up with an update?

Click the mouse, lose the house.

PoorUser This user is a quality poster

United States. Feb 10 2007 20:41. Posts 7472

you'll get paid on any river

Gambler Emeritus

iandeezy United States. Feb 10 2007 20:57. Posts 317

I definitely enjoyed your insight here, and I think against the majority of the players your analysis is correct. But considering the villain here knows your game perhaps more than the majority of players at these stakes given the fact you both post hands here, and knows that you are capable of laying down a hand - Do you not even question at all the possibility of him using that to his advantage where he's holding top two but can represent a set if the wrong card were to pair on the river? Not that I am one to give any advice, but I think against this specific player pushing the turn is the correct play here.

edit: just reread your analysis and you already cover what I said... sorry.

You call is all ova baby

Last edit: 10/02/2007 21:00

MaxUT Canada. Feb 10 2007 22:16. Posts 428

If 3's or 2's pair and he has AK then you are folding the best hand. What's more likely AA, KK or AK? I see how you can fold if A or K comes on river, but I dont think you can fold to 2 or 3.

Dont fool around with shortstacks preflop ... put his dumbass allin. he is not allowed to raise on your table without a good hand: vital[Myth]

chris United States. Feb 12 2007 16:03. Posts 5505

ty ryan

5 minute showers are my 8 minute abs. - Neilly

Highcard Canada. Feb 13 2007 18:09. Posts 5428

I like that he bet 40% of the pot because he knew flush lost 2 outs...

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Feb 13 2007 18:12. Posts 5428

I like that he bet 40% of the pot because he knew flush lost 2 outs...

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time