When will it end?

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!

Forum Index > Poker Blogs

ShaunR United States. Nov 22 2007 02:46. Posts 604

I guess I've decided ~18 buyins is big enough of a downswing that I have to return to NL100. I really don't understand how it is possible for all of the setup coolers and sick beats to happen to me night after night. At what point does the probability of me spontaneously combusting overpass it?

Let's take a look at a few hands.

Beats:

- For the biggest one (2.5 buyins) see my last blog.
- 2:1 favorite is no good for me in a big pot.
- Obvious bluff from a spewtard. No problem hitting the 2 outer on the river.
- Yea, same as the above hand basically.
- This guy is one of the lightest 3 betters I've played against. 10s are a monster against his 3 bets (he has an overpair maybe 5% of the time). Owned by 9s anyways.
- INSTANT LIFE TILT every time I see this hand.

Coolers:

- Quite a few KK vs AA. Standard so won't bother posting. I had about 4x as many KK vs AA as the other way around. And the ones that were, were mostly against short stacks.

Here's a couple of hands against an 86% vpip aggro. First a little background information on how he was playing at the table nearly every hand. Here's a hand where I get bluffed out. Keep in mind that in most hands, king high is actually good against him:

With that in mind, the following two coolers take place:

- Set over Set
- Destroyed by 73o At least I cut my losses since I know 3 is in his range (along with complete air obviously).
- The number of times people flopped a set on me is UNREAL. 1 in 8 my ass.

Overpairs suck ass?

Maybe I'm overplaying a lot of those, but most were reraised pots, and I don't mess around when i reraise AA/KK. Usually 4x their raise. Pretty sure I'm not giving them odds to set mine on me, but obvious that doesnt stop them anyways.

Here's the graph. 20 buyins, 10k hands.

Fortunately bonuses still kept me afloat in NL200 and I'm still up $2300 on the month from NL 100 : But I'm really demoralized at running so bad. It's so frustrating losing in 5 days what I spent the previous 2 weeks building up.

0 votes

Last edit: 22/11/2007 02:48

Sheitan Canada. Nov 22 2007 09:56. Posts 4217

Holy fuck, this is some sick beats here 2 outs on the river every time wow. At least you don't tilt (?) and cards will go your way soon or later, that's what i keep saying to myself so i don't go in berserk mode. Good luck.

Odds are exactly 50%, either happens or it doesnt