Welcome to my super-awesome blog. Even though it is likely I give up on this within a couple days there exists a small chance of me keeping up with the hassle of your entertainment. Though small it is worthy. I'm not sure what I intend to write about on this blog. I will probably try to limit writing about poker as much as possible. Unless obviously I am in a bad streak and feel the need to post screenshots of my sklansky (whatever the crap those may be) bucks to show I don't actually suck but am mostly unlucky.
Other than that I intend to be writing in detail about things that are going on with LP and projects we are working on. Secret info might just happen to leak through this blog. Since most LP stuff is highly classified and this blog could quickly become boring I will also be talking about MMA betting. I'm trying to see if it's possible to actually be profitable in sportsbetting. So far I have made over 100 bets and have learned a lot with a slight profit. Without redepositing I luckboxed my way up a massive $500 on my $1500 starting bankroll by betting small most of the time. 2008 will be the year to take MMA betting to the next level!
MMA is pretty much my biggest hobby these days. Although once I start making big bucks from predicting the future it will longer be a hobby.
I use http://www.bestfightodds.com/ to find lines that are worth putting money on. For UFC 79 5Dimes and BetCRIS are the ones that have had the lines for a long time, all the others were recently released.
First off a quick peek at the Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale with Clay Guida vs Roger Huerta. Even though multiple sites had the lines for this online for a few weeks and Guida is at -140/-145 for most of them Pinnacle made me very happy when they released their UFC lines today; they were all off by miles. I managed to quickly put $140 on Guida at -121. I do think Huerta is a very good fighter but he is really unproven whereas Guida has gone to war with the best fighters in the division. Huerta is probably overhyped and should have been fighting better fighters already. Little note to Roger: just because you look good doesn't mean you can beat The Carpenter buddy. You're in for a surprise.
Then on to UFC 79 itself which features three awesome matches. If these fights actually happen it is safe to say that this is the best card UFC has ever put up. During UFC79 Raszi will probably give me an angry call about forgetting his birthday but so be it.
The first match being Chuck Liddell vs Wanderlei Silva. Of course Silva is a freaking monster and it's pretty clear Chuck is not a very good fighter and only knows how to beat strong wrestlers with weak standup. He is a bit similar to Crocop because they are both so hard to take down, except that Crocop doesn't have mediocre striking and Chuck does. There is a good chance Wanderlei is going to expose Chuck for what he is; a drunk with a giant tummy.
WHAT THE FUCK CHUCK?
Anyway beforehand I was thinking Wanderlei was the favorite in this fight and when the lines came out he started at EV (basically +100) and I immediately put the max $200 on him. The lines quickly moved into Wandy being the favorite and rightfully so. Now Wandys line is hanging between -120 and -130. However Pinnacle to the rescue even though some other sites had the lines for weeks and had him at -120 Pinnacle came with the brilliant idea to open him at +101 and I managed to put another $140 on him.
Machida vs Sokoudjou is really hard to predict, but I have the feeling Sokoudjou isn't going to outstrike Machida and will have a very hard time taking him down. I wouldn't be shocked if he managed to upset me though. Anyway Machida at -118.
After Matt Serra dropped out due to an injury one day later the UFC actually did something cool. They announced GSP vs Hughes. Now I don't have a clue why Hughes took this fight because he had a good chance of beating Serra and becoming the champion again. This mans ego is going to be his downfall. I don't see any way of Hughes taking this fight. At least Chuck has the capability to knock someone out, same for Sokoudjou. But who are we kidding Hughes' t-rex arms aren't going to knock out anybody. He has very little chance of upsetting. His skillset is completely built to dominate but once he faces a better fighter there's simply not much room in his arsenal for upsetting. Unfortunately I had to take GSP at -250. Today pinnacle also released a weird line on this one and had it -206 so I put some extra money at him. I guess we'll soon be seeing that one at -250.
Recap:
blablablabal, chuck is a drunk, blablabla Guida/Silva/Machida/GSP plz win.
Even at -120 the bet on Clay is risky. He's my pick to win it too (unanimous decision, Tyson Griffin Fight of the Night Style ) but it's a fairly even fight. As untested as Huerta is, he's never looked bad and he's shown cardio strength which is typically Clay's biggest advantage in fights. Your balls are huge, I put no money on that fight.
I caught GSP/Hughes at -245. You're a genius and I'm riding your coat tails on this one.
I still see Wandy/Chuck as a complete toss up. They're both rock-em sock-em dinosaurs of MMA's past. Who the fuck knows what's going to happen there. I don't see any momentum for either seeing as Wandy is coming off loses and in general has fought a lot of cans during his "dominating pride" years. I didn't bet on this either.
And the Machida fight. You talked me out of betting on it! I like your bet though. That's a pretty sweet line. I've always been of the position that Soko is getting too much houston alexander-esque hype for being "explosive". You know what Machida does to "explosive" fighters? Makes em look tired and shitty, and ruins everyone's night. I love it.
Your balls are huge Naz. This string of bets is a lot looser than I'm used to seeing from you. You caught great lines though, so hopefully it pays off from that respect.
Good luck dude. I'll be watching these fights intently too.
I pretty much agree with all the picks. The Guida one especially. Huerta doesn't do anything super awesome he's just very well rounded and guida is just a beast and huerta will basically have to be on his A+ game to have a chance. Huerta's strength seems to be his overall balance with hands/ground and his very good cardio. But he can't outwork guida... so gl to Roger.
The wandy vs chuck one I think one should point out that chuck has this range on his strikes and if you get close to him he has issues with the clinch. I mean there is a reason guys like rampage and randy could beat him is because they push forward and are agressive..... speaking of agressive enter wandy the most agressive human ever to fight in mma.
Machida is my hero and i will always pick him even if it's against fedor with a laserhelm.
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Netherlands. Nov 30 2007 18:49. Posts 7080
