Sick Equity

PokerStars Game #15989268113: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/03/15 - 03:55:14 (ET)
Table 'Naiad V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: bevishead ($33.35 in chips)
Seat 2: DzNtz5 ($71.05 in chips)
Seat 4: k2o4 ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: Kobe>MJ ($21.80 in chips)
Seat 6: cezary02 ($67.65 in chips)
Kobe>MJ: posts small blind $0.25
cezary02: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to k2o4
bevishead: calls $0.50
DzNtz5: calls $0.50
k2o4 : raises $2.50 to $3
Kobe>MJ: folds
cezary02: folds
bevishead: calls $2.50
DzNtz5: calls $2.50

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $9.75)

   
ChodeZilla joins the table at seat #3
bevishead: checks
DzNtz5: bets $7.50
k2o4 : raises $39.50 to $47 and is all-in
bevishead: folds
DzNtz5: calls $39.50

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $103.75)

   

River (Pot : $103.75)

   

Showdown
DzNtz5: shows (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
k2o4 : mucks hand
DzNtz5 collected $101.75 from pot

Summary
Total pot $103.75 | Rake $2
Board  
Seat 1: bevishead folded on the Flop
Seat 2: DzNtz5 showed and won ($101.75) with two pair, Jacks and Fives
Seat 4: k2o4 (button) mucked
Seat 5: Kobe>MJ (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: cezary02 (big blind) folded before Flop

0 votes

Eh...you're only 60% to win. I generally never get my hopes up on draws...but if you shove like that over his bet, more often than not he'ls going to be more inclined to call you. A solid raise to say 26 would be more scary IMO for max FE. But you wouldn't be worried nonethelesss!!!!!!!!!

I mean other guy could easily put you on something like AQ and think he has more equity than he really does, making him want to call even more.

On March 15 2008 03:29 vegable wrote: Eh...you're only 60% to win. I generally never get my hopes up on draws...but if you shove like that over his bet, more often than not he'ls going to be more inclined to call you. A solid raise to say 26 would be more scary IMO for max FE. But you wouldn't be worried nonethelesss!!!!!!!!!

dude wtf this is a cooler he got the money in good why the hell would you want a fold

congrats man and sry about the sick suckout

On March 15 2008 03:29 vegable wrote: Eh...you're only 60% to win. I generally never get my hopes up on draws...but if you shove like that over his bet, more often than not he'ls going to be more inclined to call you. A solid raise to say 26 would be more scary IMO for max FE. But you wouldn't be worried nonethelesss!!!!!!!!!

WTF
we dont wanna get him to fold here >_<
We want to get all money in on flop and a call !!!

Its all good
just a cooler in the end that his 123198237128736 outs didnt hit

A fold on flop would be better, since we'd be winning $17 every time rather than winning $10 in the long run every time you run this hand 60:40 for $100 pots.

On March 15 2008 04:17 PokerDoc88 wrote: A fold on flop would be better, since we'd be winning $17 every time rather than winning $10 in the long run every time you run this hand 60:40 for $100 pots.

wow good point

>-< i am still hangover
and pwned myself with that previous post .

exact calculations
net win with fold = ( 6$ preflop + 0.75blinds + 7.50$ flop bet) 14.25$
net win with call = ( 50$+ 0.75blinds+ 3$preflop - 2$ rake x 58.4 ) - (39.8x50$ ) = 10.30$

so ofc fold would be better.
But i guess when were shoving here we know that we will get called the majority of the time and that we are still massivly + EV
I dont think a 26$ bet would get anything to fold that would call a shove here on NL50$ ?

i ve played some Nl50 and i am pretty sure people dont think like
wohooo that 26$ bet looks scary i better fold my overpairs ...
When the call a shove they will call or raise any other bets , too with that hand

^a standard raise looks more like AA or KK trying to extract value

a shove looks exactly like the type of hand hero had

I also prefer a raise, but that pretty much depends how you play your big overpairs as well. If you shove them, shove this, if you raise them - raise this.

Yea, I raise to like $25 as well. That's because I'm not shoving sets here.
BTW, your play looks EXACTLY like AKss. I've seen a lot of people playing a strong, but not a made hand yet this way .

well he doesn't fold jacks to the pf raiser anyway on this board imo

I thought I wrote this in the blog post, but it was 4am so I think I forgot - I definitely think a raise would have been better than a shove there because more people will be scared of it. But I do shove sets/overpairs there a lot too. But I figure at NL50 people don't notice that enough about what I do that type of move with, so it's better to go with the move that gets a fold generally.

I don't feel the shove was horrendous considering he was a donk NL50 player who probably doesn't even understand the concept of shoving overs + a flush draw.

an instareshove would almost always look like an nutfd type hand. sick scary raise wouldve been better.