Hey all,
First, let's start off by looking at the hand I posted last time.
The hand isn't particularly difficult. Most of us agreed on a call. However, the very basic way in which Harrington analyses the hand is, I think, what many players (even good ones) fail to take the time to do.
| |
Essentially, he breaks down the possible ranges:
1. a big pair (JJ-AA)
2. a set
3. a bluff
|
I think there's also a large possibility of A9s and 98s type hands, but no 2-pair hands.
| |
Harrington goes on to ponder how likely each hand in the range is. He concludes that, in the case of a big pair, the hand was played pretty unusually: if villain had KK, for example, wouldn't he try for a more value-oriented line? The same reasoning goes for trips. He also proposes that under no circumstances should you ever consider the chances of a bluff being less than 10%.
|
I'm not sure I agree about the bluff part.
| |
He then breaks down actual percentages: 50% for a big pair, 40% for a set, and 10% for bluffing.
Against a set, we are roughly 10%, so 0.1 * 0.4 = 0.04
Against another pair, we are roughly 90%, so 0.9 * 0.5 = 0.45
Say we're about 90% vs. a bluff, so 0.9 * 0.1 = 0.09
Putting it all together, we have 58% equity in the hand. Given we're getting about 3-2 odds, we should get it in here even if we expect him to have a set fairly often.
|
Harrington's explanation is much more detailed and in-depth, but this condensed version point out the important parts:
- Always analyze your odds before considering anything
- Always analyze villain's possible ranges, the likelyhood of those ranges, and a guesstimate of your equity in the hand
Now, on to today's performance.
4 11+1 turbos (180)
2 10+1 (180)
10+1 turbo
5+0.5 5k GTD
20+2 20k GTD
3R 25k GTD
8+0.8
3 5400 FPP sats
So far, I haven't cashed in any tournaments, except for a single seat in the 3 sats. I know I said I wouldn't play any 20$ tourneys until I had a 4k roll, but I felt pretty good about my game, and it was actually the tourney I ran deepest in. I was eliminated 199th, right on the bubble, when I pushed AQs against KJo SB vs BT. I think overall I played pretty well in the tournament, keeping generally solid and not giving too much a way. Some of my bluffs didn't work out, but I think they were good.
It seems I'm having most difficult in the 50/100 - 100/200 stage. I don't really know how to handle small PPs 33-77 in EP/MP on a small stack, whether or not to call all-ins, and generally how to accumulate chips. I think I've been rather card-dead over the past 50 tourneys or so, and I've definitely been getting sucked out on: I'd say I have won maybe 20% of the key all-ins, in which I've been ahead in most of the time. This is preventing me from getting the 15k+ stacks which I kind of need for the later game. I feel way more comfortable with like 60BBs and antes, where I know steals are profitable and I think given all the stuff I've been reading, I have a bigger edge.
I think most of my difficulty stems from the fact that I used to play SNGs about two years ago. Back then, they were pretty easy money. Tight was right in the early stages, and I wouldn't even take all-ins with QQ... Now, with the fishes I'm playing, I realize I have to loosen up my calling range and play more "big pot" hands like scs. I'm also going to have to take dozens of flips per tourney.
If anybody could help me with chip accumulation in the early/mid stages of the tourney (50/100 - 100/200), I'd appreciate it. If anyone wants to discuss tourney strategy, my MSN is o2xy@hotmail.com, and my AIM is AimIsTotallyCrap. Hit me up!
Cheers,
Michael
|
|
Contact Users: 958 Active, 0 Logged in - Time: 12:57
