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a prop bet

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tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 03:23. Posts 2591
I'm bumping myself off and putting me back ontop on the poker blogs because I'm going to bed soon and I don't think $200 in action is worth it's own thread. So reposting

ok, I ran bad today at NL100, so what did I do...
I made a prop bet with a good friend of mine to get my mind somewhere else..
gogo genius!
He is giving me 2.5 to 1 odds that I can not win 100 buyins in 2 weeks at NL.25 6max so I've laid down $100 to his $250
However, I do not feel $100 for $250 will keep my determination and drive up to par for two weeks, so I'm willing to lay down the same bet for two other respected/well known members who would like to join in.

I am willing to take 2 other ppl (well knowns on here) for $100 a piece, or if ur a well known baller on here that obviously $200 is nothing to, then I will do 1 person for the remaining $200.
This is nothing serious, it is more of a spur of the moment type thing for fun, and like I said I don't think $100 will keep my incentive or interest.
I have never done this before nor have I done the math of how I should go about any of this, I am just trusting my gut and going at it.
I feel I will profit in this experience at least mentally if not in my wallet.

Once I have 1 or 2 other people involved, I will post a screenshot similar to this but with a different starting time and no IM:

This is a screenshot of the deal already made and same rules will apply here as well.

If I get action, I will also blog daily results, at least once a day until the prop bet is over.
This bet will start as soon as I get a total of $300 for $750 in action and I post a screenshot with times and balance here.
If your interested and want more details let me know
It should be said I am far from Daut44's or LeatherAsses level so I do not think this will be a breeze for me like it probably would be for some, but I do think I can do this.
It should also be said that my good friend who knows my poker game better than anyone else besides myself thinks I can't and is betting the $250 against me. So two weeks from now we will know who is right
It is a good bet.
I will be going to bed within the next 6 hours, and if I get no action and have not started by the time I wake up tomorrow, then I will start with the prop bet I have now and edit this blog
tc and gl all!


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The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 03:23. Posts 2591


  On August 19 2008 01:54 tloapc wrote:
When I made this bet with my friend I didn't do any math in my head, it just seemed right and I want to focus on something else as I am waiting to move in my own place and I am running bad at a semidecent limit so I went with it.
I've still not done any math except just a very vague amount in my head because the more math I start to do the more I think this is not going to be easy at all, in fact very very very difficult
so for me ignorance is bliss here
worse case scenario for me is I'll lose three hundred, time will fly, and I will hopefully learn alot from it

I think most of us have just seen the prop bets for 400 buyins, or 200 buyins and so this seems like nothing in comparison..
but those bets are in a months time, not two weeks
they are also for full ring, not 6 max
and I'm also far from a pro...
annnnd I'm living at home for the next three weeks where chaos is a normality when everyone comes back on Thursday (and I have to pick everyone up at the airport)

so it really surprises me I've not had leaps of ppl offering to take this bet


quoted from last blog
meant to add when I posted it the first time that I think these are huge differences

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action.Last edit: 19/08/2008 03:36

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 03:24. Posts 2591

OMFG IM A WHALE!!!

SUCCESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

Kilay   Netherlands. Aug 19 2008 03:48. Posts 1960

Man, this is tempting, 100$ is a reasonable chunk of my bankroll and I don't like putting it on a prop bet like this. That being said I am like 95% sure you can't do this...


CruiseR   Poland. Aug 19 2008 04:02. Posts 682

tloapc

u will fail -_-


killThemDonks   Canada. Aug 19 2008 04:10. Posts 2681

veerryy verryy tempting


tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 04:24. Posts 2591

well like I said I'm gonna go to bed here soon (definitely not starting this now)
when I wake if there are still no takers I'm gonna start with the bet between me and my friend (he doesn't post here)

annnd if there is no other money involved I think that ups the chances of me losing by 30% at least as it's only $100 and will probably not be worth it to me at all after 5 days or a week
but who knows, I do hate to lose

not gonna blog about it tho if no action

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 04:49. Posts 2591

gawdawaful for $100

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

Siro   Australia. Aug 19 2008 04:58. Posts 1540

nvm

 Last edit: 19/08/2008 04:59

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 05:00. Posts 2591

and I almost quoted u
good thing I reloaded it one time before doin it

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

Siro   Australia. Aug 19 2008 05:04. Posts 1540

haha hrmm tbh i think this bet is +ev in my favour but it's just not that interesting for me.. gl with it and you should be able to find action at a better hour


tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 05:09. Posts 2591

no prob
goin to bed in T-minus 30minutes
when I wake up I will check on here first, even if no other takers I'll still be daily update bloggin unless gawdawaful backs out (which I told him he could before as long as it's before when it starts)
after that I'll post a screenshot of my comp time to match stars time, as well as show my acct balance
that will start the 2 week timer
yes I also have a new database for this as well

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

Kilay   Netherlands. Aug 19 2008 06:40. Posts 1960

Meh, putting up 50$ if I could make a deal with someone else to also put up 50$ to make it a 100$ together and if we win we get to split 50$. Sounds like free money but meh, nevermind.

GL with the bet... I guess taking up the bet is +EV for your friend and gawdawful hehe...


k4ir0s   Canada. Aug 19 2008 06:50. Posts 3478

i'll put down 100$

I dont know what a dt drop is. Is it a wrestling move? -Oly 

gawdawaful   Canada. Aug 19 2008 08:09. Posts 9012

if k4ir0s backs out for the $100, I'll take the other $50 (my $125 along with his $125 to win your $100) with Kilay so you can get started in the morning either way
if they both back out, I'll take the last $250 myself and gambolllll

Im only good at poker when I run good 

tomson    Poland. Aug 19 2008 08:16. Posts 1982

I'll take whatever you have left.

Peace of mind cant be bought. 

antman1437   United States. Aug 19 2008 10:14. Posts 14

I'll take any bet you have left as well. I do post on 2+2, and can verify that I am legitimate to pay you. Hell, even if it's just my $10 to your $25 if you win, I think that would be cool enough in itself. Would make the week more interesting to check back and to see how you are doing. Have never been in a prop bet before and it seemed interesting regardless of the money. So let me know if you want to do it. I know this is my first reply and I finally signed up an account on LP for this but I have been reading here for awhile. If not, it's understandable.


tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 10:15. Posts 2591


  On August 19 2008 07:16 tomson wrote:
I'll take whatever you have left.


I've $100 to your $250 left
sorry k4ir0s but gonna go with Tomson as he is a green star and I def know the money is no biggie either way

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 10:16. Posts 2591

this is really not getting off to a good start
10:56 AM
lol
10:56 AM
good thing its only $300
10:56 AM
right before I decided to go to bed at 6:30 am
10:57 AM
my wireless internet card went out for the first time ever since buying it a week and a half ago
10:57 AM
I had to reinstall it and luckily that worked
10:58 AM
so I went to bed, took me longer than normal due to nerves of what I'm preparing myself to attempt
10:58 AM
I get to sleep, lets say 7:15am
10:58 AM
I get woken up by a constant phone call
10:58 AM
first time my parents decided to call me
10:58 AM
heard it the first time but I was tired as it was 10:15 am
10:59 AM
after the third time I got up because it's obviously something important
10:59 AM
can't find my phone
10:59 AM
miss the 4th call
10:59 AM
call them back from the house phone
10:59 AM
it's my dad, just wanting to check up

____ 10:59 AM
lol

tloapc10:59 AM
it's utter chaos on his end, the wind is blowing so loud he can't hear me, so he goes inside were my cousin
11:00 AM
who has 7! kids

_____ 11:00 AM
wanted to know if the house still stands?

tloapc11:00 AM
EVERYONE IS YELLING AND SCREAMINIG IN THE BACKGROUN
11:00 AM
yes exactly
11:00 AM
so I'm trying to tell me dad whats going on, and "prepare them" to not fuck with me
11:00 AM
when they come back
11:00 AM
but I have to yell over the yelling

____ 11:00 AM
yeah I know those kinds of phone calls

tloapc11:00 AM
for him to hear me
11:00 AM
now I'm wide awake
11:01 AM
on 3 hours sleep
11:01 AM
and I have to go to the beach house to check on things
11:01 AM
so I check my blog
11:01 AM
see that I got action
11:01 AM
it's full
11:01 AM
so I go to reply, and say I should be sleeping but
11:01 AM
..
11:01 AM
the internet goes out on me again
11:02 AM
this is gonna be a very long two weeks
11:02 AM
><

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Aug 19 2008 10:18. Posts 2591


  On August 19 2008 09:14 antman1437 wrote:
I'll take any bet you have left as well. I do post on 2+2, and can verify that I am legitimate to pay you. Hell, even if it's just my $10 to your $25 if you win, I think that would be cool enough in itself. Would make the week more interesting to check back and to see how you are doing. Have never been in a prop bet before and it seemed interesting regardless of the money. So let me know if you want to do it. I know this is my first reply and I finally signed up an account on LP for this but I have been reading here for awhile. If not, it's understandable.


I'll do the $10 just for shits and grins as a welcome to LP for ya but thats it
especially after this morning
I'm gonna try to go back to sleep now

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

 
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