stock market

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!

Forum Index > Poker Blogs

JYang United States. Oct 15 2008 18:39. Posts 2669

stocks are the cool things to talk about these days so i'll add my words

this stuff is bad and getting worst

in general how people interpret the morning/closing action is like morning the amateurs will get their trades in, and then the later hours are all dictated by the pros. seems like every time there's a gap in the morning, it usually goes lower. kinda like how public is getting fucked. no clue when they'll lose their confidence but i guess that's a possible indicator where academically educated people give up hope.

but i read somewhere (i forgot where), cuz i been readin a ton, that many stock broker accounts are having cash reserves ready to buy stocks. people like to pick bottoms i guess. and i guess reason for it is that all the retarded stock market books all praise warren buffett and buy and hold for 7% zomg. and that stock market is efficient and buy and hold is correct strategy (actually taught in schools wtf).

i exited all my holdings yesterday because i have no idea where this shit is going. and today it went down, woot lucky i exited.

stuff to look for tommorow:
1. will the greedy amateurs who missed a chance for the 11% jump come back in and push it for a few more days? if yes im prolly switchin back to a 100% short position since our crisis is still so bad than what the news is saying.
2. i think we'll see a bounce at the 800 point level in the S&P since its like our last support level.
3. i think its time to short.

some thoughts and ideas

1. i'll pick up shares of blizzard in the future, not now b/c i still think the market is pricey
2. avg s&p p/e level is still ~15. not that p/e really mean much. but many people still believe in it.
3. stocks are cool

some interestin ideas....

this shit really looks that Japan in the 1990 bubbles and ima quote straight from wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation#Deflation_in_Japan

Deflation started in the early 1990s. The Bank of Japan and the government have tried to eliminate it by reducing interest rates (part of their 'quantitative easing' policy), but this was unsuccessful for over a decade. In July 2006, the zero-rate policy was ended, and by 2008 Japan was again sustaining positive inflation rates.

Systemic reasons for deflation in Japan can be said to include:

Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.

Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.

Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.

Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.

Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.

---------------------

whats different this time?
dollar's actually rising

stuff to look for:
asians as we know like to save. but americans like to spend. so will americans keep spending? or will they start saving? if this is true then like we can just short everything cuz its the repeat of japan.

oh yea i also wanna add that we didnt care back then in japan cuz it was only like a small island in the middle of nowhere. but here in the USA we diversity risk globally and we're getting help too.

will these factors help? or will this be a repeat of history?

0 votes

Last edit: 15/10/2008 20:08

TenBagger United States. Oct 15 2008 18:48. Posts 2018

It's not just retail brokerage accounts, but also the big money that's sitting on cash.

I heard SAC trimmed their positions and is sitting on like 50% cash.

JYang United States. Oct 15 2008 18:54. Posts 2669

ya everyone likes to pick bottoms

buy low sell high w00000000000000000

i was a fan of buy high sell higher but now im in the mode of short low and cover lower...

domyouji Zimbabwe. Oct 15 2008 19:14. Posts 435

too long no read btw u like horse

to live the dream you gotta play the game

eightfourO United States. Oct 15 2008 19:15. Posts 820

here's my opinion...

US stock market is as swingy as Fazi's bankroll

"ahhh i just lost 15K but it's cool cuz i just make 40K"

I am a god damn Rootin Tootin Shootin Cowboy!!

Last edit: 15/10/2008 19:16

JYang United States. Oct 15 2008 19:21. Posts 2669

On October 15 2008 18:15 eightfourO wrote:
here's my opinion...

US stock market is as swingy as Fazi's bankroll

"ahhh i just lost 40K but it's cool cuz i just make 15K"

fixed to correspond to the current situation

Cray0ns United States. Oct 15 2008 19:23. Posts 993

Obv it depends on your time frame. I'm not a day trader, a market timer, and certainly not in the business of picking bottoms. However, the risk premium being offered vs the VIX of the market certainly was not pretty when I decided to exit back in 2007 and thus I exited getting 5+% on cash and waited for a correction. Now I'm looking for an entry point. Better prices may still be had, and I haven't made my move yet but I'm definitely bullish equities now as opposed to bearish when I went to cash/commodities in 07. Just thought I'd add my amateur opinion.

Again I'm a nit as any when it comes to markets - I exited all equities (sans commodity-related stocks) 2007 - way before the top - when people were screaming buy buy buy the market never goes down. I did this knowing full well that I may be giving up more potential gains thinking that the risk outweighed the premium offered over cash/money markets. Now this market nit (me) is definitely growing increasing bullish and looking for an entry when everyone is screaming bloody murder and sell-sell-sell. I'm not the type to be changing my allocation frequently either, this was a once a decade type of move for me with the notion that I'd be looking for re-entry eventually.

I'm don't pick bottoms so I may be off significantly (I'm still 0% equities) but feel it's time for long term investors to start looking for an entry. Volatility is back in the markets (one of the reasons I exited) so there's plenty to be made going both ways in the near future. My actual entry will probably use some really crude technicals. A friend said wait till 7500 Dow - I'm like lol I'm not in the business of picking bottoms but tbh if I entered 8500 and the lowest the market ever went after that was 7500 I'd feel pretty happy about it just as I'm happy at exiting at 12500 when the Dow proceeded to 14000 and I was getting 5+% with money markets. However, in general the more I hear people (CNBC) saying they are short the market the more I'm eager to take a long position.

Last edit: 15/10/2008 19:48

TenBagger United States. Oct 15 2008 19:29. Posts 2018

just my amateurish opinion but I think the market is gonna test new lows for the rest of this year. I don't see a long term rebound starting until at least January of "09.

Sheitan Canada. Oct 15 2008 19:49. Posts 4217

lol you are crazy to invest in the market by these times

Odds are exactly 50%, either happens or it doesnt

hansen Sweden. Oct 15 2008 19:57. Posts 1964

Just found your blog and im too pretty intrested in the market/trading but havent really gotten into it hardcore yet.
It seems like a pretty good time to start now when the markets are low. Cheap prices and probably good returns in a few years time.
Any links/suggestions on what to read?

JYang United States. Oct 15 2008 20:15. Posts 2669

I'm actually fascinated by the stock market. im obv learning but i have a working luckbox that allows me to make $ while learning

and im prolly going compile a huge list of links written by other ppl on gettin started. i suck at writin so.. i'll leavin the writing part to the white ppl, who seems to have the natural ability to write very interestingly and competent. i'll provide my view and comment and we can all discuss wooot

JYang United States. Oct 15 2008 20:21. Posts 2669

On October 15 2008 18:29 TenBagger wrote:
just my amateurish opinion but I think the market is gonna test new lows for the rest of this year. I don't see a long term rebound starting until at least January of "09.

in my time frame i dont see any rebound except maybe at the obvious support levels. then its headin straight down.

obviously this opinion can change any minute.

latigra . Oct 15 2008 20:39. Posts 257

forget about all this shit

Last edit: 15/10/2008 20:39

eightfourO United States. Oct 15 2008 21:49. Posts 820

On October 15 2008 18:21 JYang wrote:

Show nested quote +
On October 15 2008 18:15 eightfourO wrote:
here's my opinion...

US stock market is as swingy as Fazi's bankroll

"ahhh i just lost 40K but it's cool cuz i just make 15K"

fixed to correspond to the current situation

ty...fazi's swings are an example of the economy during the Clinton administration.

I am a god damn Rootin Tootin Shootin Cowboy!!

Last edit: 15/10/2008 21:50