[Poll] HEM EV Graph

do you mean if you measure the graph in big blinds? or just in pure $? cos i ran "hot" at NL400 (ie. broke even instead of losing) when i first played there and that has kinda skewed my $$ graph

anyway my view on it is this. as a poker player you have two weapons at your disposal.

first one is discipline. you need to put in the work and put in the hands.

second one is confidence, you need to be confident in your game that you are +EV vs the other players at your table. and all-in EV graphs can help you keep your confidence. during huge bad streaks, which every single player has had at one point, you can easily think u suck and lose any bit of confidence you once had. so if set % / all in EV help you realise u dont suck quite as much then they are doing their job.

all in EV and the number of sets you flop are out of your hands so imo just focus on your discipline and confidence as that's all you can directly affect

it doesnt mean that it will even out over time. if ur 23 under right now, ur expected to be 23 under at any time later in life.

On March 12 2009 01:58 lachlan wrote: do you mean if you measure the graph in big blinds? or just in pure $? cos i ran "hot" at NL400 (ie. broke even instead of losing) when i first played there and that has kinda skewed my $$ graph anyway my view on it is this. as a poker player you have two weapons at your disposal. first one is discipline. you need to put in the work and put in the hands. second one is confidence, you need to be confident in your game that you are +EV vs the other players at your table. and all-in EV graphs can help you keep your confidence. during huge bad streaks, which every single player has had at one point, you can easily think u suck and lose any bit of confidence you once had. so if set % / all in EV help you realise u dont suck quite as much then they are doing their job. all in EV and the number of sets you flop are out of your hands so imo just focus on your discipline and confidence as that's all you can directly affect

Whether the graph is in BB or $ it won't matter because they are just different units of measurement for the same information. The thing is I'm playing with the expectation that the lines eventually will come together. So long as my all-in EV continues to go up i am making money. This graph is a tangible, mathematically proven indicator of my efforts that says "you're not losing your mind, just running bad". I believe this is what you're saying.

although when I'm "running badly" over 60k hands it makes me wonder hard about the legitimacy of this program.

On March 12 2009 02:05 Zalfor wrote: it doesnt mean that it will even out over time. if ur 23 under right now, ur expected to be 23 under at any time later in life.

This is understandable. I'm capable of accepting the swongs of poker (not like i have a choice in the matter lol). But the purpose of this poll is to try to confirm my understanding of all-in EV.

The simpler question would be given that I continue to play with the same style and all other variables remain constant, I should eventually swing up $1150.

On March 12 2009 02:05 Zalfor wrote: it doesnt mean that it will even out over time. if ur 23 under right now, ur expected to be 23 under at any time later in life.

This... If you flipped coins and got 10 heads, would you expect that eventually down the track you would definitely make up those 10 tails? You are just as likely to keep running bad as you are to start running good.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/blog/viewblog.php?id=682586

I talked about this and got some really good responses in the replies that you should check out. Note that we're dealing with just preflop all in EV which is more conclusive about overall "luck.

On March 12 2009 02:44 vegable wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2009 02:05 Zalfor wrote: it doesnt mean that it will even out over time. if ur 23 under right now, ur expected to be 23 under at any time later in life. This is understandable. I'm capable of accepting the swongs of poker (not like i have a choice in the matter lol). But the purpose of this poll is to try to confirm my understanding of all-in EV. The simpler question would be given that I continue to play with the same style and all other variables remain constant, I should eventually swing up $1150.

No. If you are 23 buyins under expectation, then on average you will be 23 buyins under expectation after 100k more hands. Also it's equally likely that you will be 'even' (0 buyins under / over expectation) as you will 46 buyins below expectation.

Also, don't pay much attention to these EV graphs. All-in EV is not a good measure of how good/bad you're running as it's only a portion of the luck involved in poker.

On March 12 2009 09:37 ShaunR wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2009 02:44 vegable wrote:   On March 12 2009 02:05 Zalfor wrote: it doesnt mean that it will even out over time. if ur 23 under right now, ur expected to be 23 under at any time later in life. This is understandable. I'm capable of accepting the swongs of poker (not like i have a choice in the matter lol). But the purpose of this poll is to try to confirm my understanding of all-in EV. The simpler question would be given that I continue to play with the same style and all other variables remain constant, I should eventually swing up $1150. No. If you are 23 buyins under expectation, then on average you will be 23 buyins under expectation after 100k more hands. Also it's equally likely that you will be 'even' (0 buyins under / over expectation) as you will 46 buyins below expectation. Also, don't pay much attention to these EV graphs. All-in EV is not a good measure of how good/bad you're running as it's only a portion of the luck involved in poker.

agree w/ this

i am going to throw this out there and i don't necessarily believe it ... but what about whenever u lose generally you are running bad. and whenever u win more than u would expect to then u are running good. cos i mean we are all poker players and are all trying to make our graphs go up... so theoretically whenever we lose it has to be one of the zillion variables in poker raping us in the ass beyond our control. yes sometimes we will make bad decisions... but im talking about once we are confident we know what we are doing then everything we do is done with at least the intention of making money. be it an A hitting the flop when we flatcall a 3b with KK, a fish holding KK pre vs our QQ when he could have any two cards, etc etc. just so much stuff that can make the difference between you win a buyin or lose a buyin besides all in EV, even tho it cant be measured.

but yea Set % is still a huge stat tho. in HEM check it out by adding it. if it's above 11.7%, u are flopping more then the avg, and vice versa. if you are running bad in All-in EV, AND running bad in Set %, then i think u are definitely vindicated to /wrists

just bought a new keyboard which is one of the reasons i was inspired to type all this shit out haha

TY for the replies guys

BS, you can't only have 119k hands in your life. You've been playing forever! This is probably just everything since you bought HEM? Or what? Request PS to send you all your hands and then try this again.

On March 12 2009 02:41 vegable wrote: although when I'm "running badly" over 60k hands it makes me wonder hard about the legitimacy of this program.

60k hands of running bad totally happens. it's not unrealistic at all.