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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 06:03. Posts 704 | | |
It's a principle of mine never to invest any of my hard-earned money in gambling, unless I won it in gambling. The only way I can allow myself to play poker is to win my entire bankroll in poker.
So, some time ago I was here asking about the best way to win freerolls. I was asking advice about freeroll hands, and I even asked advice about some play money hands, too. I guess somebody must've felt sorry for me, because one day I woke up with $5 in my account. I wish I knew who it was so I can ship that person $10 back when I can miss it.
Anyway, if you're still around here and wondering what happened: my original $5 is now $11, after 2.5k hands. I'm running 25/20 fullring at nl02, playing between 1 to 3 tables.
Have I calculated my winrate correctly if I say it's 12bb/100hands? Is that decent for nl02?
Is 2.5k hands enough of a sample to have some confidence that I will continue to be a winning player?
My swings are huge. After some sessions I am down the incredible sum of $2! It actually amuses me that I can get so worked up over $2, but $2 is 20% of my current bankroll, so it's a little scary. I'm very scared to go broke, as that would mean I'm back to grinding freerolls.
I'm half-stacking to reduce my variance, I don't know if it helps. It feels better to think I have 11 buyins rather than 5.5.
Guessing my standard deviation at 70 bb / 100 and using the formula from liquidpoker's bankroll article, I came up with a risk of ruin of 7%. Very scary.
Here's the formulate from the article
r = exp(-2wB/sigma²)
where
B = bankroll
r = risk of ruin
sigma = standard deviation (in some units)
w = winrate (in the same units as standard deviation)
My bankroll is 550 bb
My winrate is 12bb / 100
My standard deviation is 70 bb / 100
exp(-2*12*550/70^2) = 0.07~
Hopefully if I get a little lucky now, I can get into safer and safer territory.
When I reach 10k hands and my bankroll hopefully at $30 or so, I intend to start buying in for 100bb at 6max. I'll have 15 buyins (still at nl02).
Good idea or should I look at SNGs or tournaments too?
I'm also looking for a fellow noob that I can exchange hand histories with. There's probably something useful we can teach eachother by reviewing hand histories. Or if you're not a noob, feel free to review my hand histories anyway
Just not much I can trade with for now.
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DoomsdayVic   New Zealand. Apr 15 2009 06:19. Posts 159 | | |
Im only playing NL10 but if you like add me on msn: victorman_is_now@hotmail.com |
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why don't you just use one of the free bankroll deals out there? |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 06:44. Posts 704 | | |
| On April 15 2009 05:37 Neutral Milk wrote:
why don't you just use one of the free bankroll deals out there? |
I don't have an ID.
Besides, starting out with a $50 bankroll is cheating. |
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| Last edit: 15/04/2009 06:46 |
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lazymej   Canada. Apr 15 2009 06:50. Posts 2897 | | |
no 2.5k hands is not a substantial sample. A lot of players here play that many hands in a few hours.
I'm not saying you won't continue to win, just that you can't tell from 2.5k hands whether you will win forever, lol. |
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| Last edit: 15/04/2009 06:53 |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 06:55. Posts 704 | | |
| On April 15 2009 05:50 lazymej wrote:
no 2.5k hands is not a substantial sample |
Does this mean I could possibly actually be a losing player? That it will take longer to reach $30 than I'm thinking right now? |
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Just play like a huge nit and the swings should be smaller. I don't play FR but 25/20 seems much too loose especially if your a beginner and not good at reading flop textures yet and even more because your BR is so small. just play uber nitty PF and try to ship it in whenever you hit and don't cbet too much when you miss unless the board is very dry coz at this level they'll peel way too much. |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 07:37. Posts 704 | | |
I'm leaning more towards wanting to see lots of flops in order to improve my post-flop game, but as you say my bankroll is very small so this might just have to wait until later.
Bot-mode?
About c-betting, my style currently is to cbet the turn instead of flop if the board has medium cards or draws, and the turn card doesn't hit any draws. It seems to work out decently, but I don't have too much experience. I appreciate any input. |
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lebowski   Greece. Apr 15 2009 08:04. Posts 9205 | | |
hehe that 5$ gift was cool. Just do the same when u become a baller or something,I doubt the guy who sent it would need those 5$ |
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new shit has come to light... a-and... shit! man... | |
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EscapingR   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 08:55. Posts 2353 | | |
this is a big story with lots of knowledge for 5$? |
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| On April 15 2009 05:55 Fudyann wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 15 2009 05:50 lazymej wrote:
no 2.5k hands is not a substantial sample |
Does this mean I could possibly actually be a losing player? That it will take longer to reach $30 than I'm thinking right now?
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Yea., can't say before like 50k hands for sure mostly, but since you seem somewhat bright I doubt that you're losing at those stakes. |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Apr 15 2009 09:09. Posts 15163 | | |
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PokerDoc88   Australia. Apr 15 2009 09:32. Posts 3527 | | |
well you seem bright but you play 25/20 with 50bb buyins, which is super stupid
if you buy-in short, you gotta play tighter.
don't consider the free bankroll deals "cheating", just ask an older friend to use their ID or something, idk but honestly you'll save yourself a lot of time, effort, and hardship if you just accepted one of those offers. Not only that, but playing the way you do is actually crippling to your development as a player because you're not really getting any experience playing with 100bb stacks, and you're playing scared money which is obviously going to affect how you play.
finally, trying to improve your post-flop game means nothing if you play with 50bb and haven't got pre-flop basics down. 25/20 is far too loose for full-ring even if you're 100bb deep. just take a free $50 sign-up deal, learn to play 8 tables at a time with a solid 15-12 kind of stats, play hard and fast and it will be the quickest path to building a roll and skill, i assure you. |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 09:58. Posts 704 | | |
Wow, I didn't realize that half-stacking actually makes it more optimal to play tighter, too. This definitely has to change the way I play. Can anybody explain the reasoning behind this?
Actually I've been playing something like 18/15 recently, after a discussion with another LP member, who thought my 30/24 stats at the time were a little fishy. That's the reason for the 25/20 average.
Is even 18/15 too lose for 50bbs? I will try to play three or four tables with 15/12, see how I like playing that way. The problem is, it will take a long time before I see the effect on my results (this is what makes poker very difficult for me).
It will mostly have to come from session review how the change is affection my play, I guess. |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Apr 15 2009 10:02. Posts 15163 | | |
| On April 15 2009 08:58 Fudyann wrote:
Wow, I didn't realize that half-stacking actually makes it more optimal to play tighter, too. This definitely has to change the way I play. Can anybody explain the reasoning behind this?
Actually I've been playing something like 18/15 recently, after a discussion with another LP member, who thought my 30/24 stats at the time were a little fishy. That's the reason for the 25/20 average.
Is even 18/15 too lose for 50bbs? I will try to play three or four tables with 15/12, see how I like playing that way. The problem is, it will take a long time before I see the effect on my results (this is what makes poker very difficult for me).
It will mostly have to come from session review how the change is affection my play, I guess. |
Its loose for 200bb NL2!
The best strategy there is to play 10/8 I assure you. When everyone is loose you should play tight, when everyone is a nit you can play LAG (well not you, I mean someone who knows hot to play good LAG ;o)
http://www.liquidpoker.net/pokerartic...me_a_winner_-_Chapter_1:_Introduction Read this and next 4 chapters and come back when you got $100.
Also not taking the $50 is stupid, why would you play halfstack when you can play big stack from the start. Ideally you should ignore money and just think of it as nice 25BI, which is what you need to play with anyway...
Start to think in big blinds and buy-ins rather than money,. |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 15/04/2009 10:08 |
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Gadget   United States. Apr 15 2009 10:08. Posts 295 | | |
I'm pretty sure pokerstars gave you the $5, my 2 friends also got this. |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 10:18. Posts 704 | | |
I don't think I can stand to play 10/8. I will give it a shot, though. Multi-tabling will probably become easier.
Is 10/8 optimal because of the field or because I am a noob?
Also, is expecting 12bb/100 realistic with 10/8 (depending on my postflop play)?
I now realize that it's probably not realistic to expect 12bb/100 to continue if I'm playing 18/15 halfstacked. |
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Fudyann   Netherlands. Apr 15 2009 10:18. Posts 704 | | |
| On April 15 2009 09:08 Gadget wrote:
I'm pretty sure pokerstars gave you the $5, my 2 friends also got this. |
Oh, neat. I would expect some kind of news message, though, not just a random upgrade to my bankroll.
Maybe I got an email (I don't read my email). Where can I read more about this promotion? What did I do to get a free $5? |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Apr 15 2009 10:28. Posts 15163 | | |
| On April 15 2009 09:18 Fudyann wrote:
Is 10/8 optimal because of the field or because I am a noob?
Also, is expecting 12bb/100 realistic with 10/8 (depending on my postflop play)?
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Both, You counter their looseness by playing tight and you also get into much easier spots when you play only with premiums, and that is where you should start.
12Big Blinds/100 is completely realistic, if you mean 12ptBB, than only when you buy-in for full. |
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93% Sure! | Last edit: 15/04/2009 10:29 |
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CrownRoyal   United States. Apr 15 2009 11:37. Posts 11385 | | |
imo dude, do something else to occupy most of your time and just nutpeddle.
if you can multitable thats great but if not watch a movie and wait for big hands and play them completely face up and raise them big, even if its like 10x the bb preflop who cares, they are gonna call. |
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