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[H] quick 3 bet question |
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eekmice United States. Jul 09 2009 03:38. Posts 282 | | |
i forgot to save the hand history so bear with me.
I have QJs in CO and this guy who has been 3 betting a LOT raises to 6 on the button. Of the few hands that went to showdown, I noticed that he 3bet 4.5 more in big hands and 4 more in mediocre hands. He bet 4 more this hand. So I didn't want to play such a mediocre hand OOP by flat calling, I decided to make it 13. He then reraised 10 more. Now I'm even more confident he doesn't have QQ/KK/AA because he would've most likely went all in. After thinking about it, I thought I had 0 fold equity and just folded. What is the optimal play here?
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palak United States. Jul 09 2009 04:12. Posts 4601 | | |
played it fine, he would have snap called a shove due to being committed and u arn't ahead |
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| dont tap the glass...im about ready to take a fucking hammer to the aquarium | |
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Jul 09 2009 04:38. Posts 15163 | | |
Its not that simple palak with extensive history and a lock-on read. |
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| 93% Sure! | Last edit: 09/07/2009 04:39 |
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Jul 09 2009 04:45. Posts 15163 | | |
| | He then reraised 10 more. Now I'm even more confident he doesn't have QQ/KK/AA because he would've most likely went all in |
If you say most likely then fold. Maybe thats what he wants you to think and let you level yourself like this.
But if you really have a lock on read then watch this:
(Theorycraft ftw!)
Hand 0: 39.989% 39.56% 00.42% 165300480 1775522.00 { QJs }
Hand 1: 60.011% 59.59% 00.42% 248950652 1775522.00 { JJ-77, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
You raise 37 to win 63, 1:1.7 pot odds, so you have to win 37% of the time to make it profitable.
Theoretically speaking you should shove.
If he adds sc+gappers, it getts even easier.
Hand 0: 44.924% 44.49% 00.43% 234652504 2272998.00 { QJs }
Hand 1: 55.076% 54.64% 00.43% 288191132 2272998.00 { JJ-77, AJs+, KQs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }
Its extremely marginal and you have to have a strong read, and folding is not a mistake. Make your choice. |
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| 93% Sure! | Last edit: 09/07/2009 04:52 |
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Jul 09 2009 04:50. Posts 15163 | | | |
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| 93% Sure! | Last edit: 09/07/2009 04:50 |
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| | On July 09 2009 03:12 palak wrote:
played it fine, he would have snap called a shove due to being committed and u arn't ahead |
i've definitely seen aggro retards fold to shove with half their stack in the pot lol
so i dunno about 0 fold equity
but folding's safe and gives us low variance 
don't wanna joeingram nl50 lols |
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