Run Good/Bad Theory

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Gadget United States. Nov 15 2009 23:42. Posts 295

I don't get into math barely at all when playing poker. I know all the basics, but I'm not one of those guys that calculates standard deviation of bad runs and things like that. In fact I usually just skip over any mathematical equations or references while browsing poker forums. So I have been running terribly for 2 weeks and it got me to thinking, someone tell me if my thinking is correct.

If I run terrible for a week, lets say I am the most unlucky poker player in the world for a week (I'm not saying I am, just for this example). Then for the rest of my life there is no guarantee that it will ever even out. All that is guaranteed is that I should run at EV for the rest of my life after that point on average, not factoring the previous week into that average.

I'm wondering this because in my head I tell myself, just get through this bad run and you will eventually be rewarded with a good run when in reality I dont think that is true at all. The past doesnt affect anything and from the present I am in fact never going to be rewarded for running sickeningly bad for 2 weeks while still playing pretty good poker.

Also, I have a 19" HP laptop with a nvidia 8500 go vid card. will it be able to run a 24 inch monitor at max res?

0 votes

Critterer United Kingdom. Nov 15 2009 23:49. Posts 5337

basically think of it like flipping a coin

its unlikely but possible that ill flip heads 20 times in a row, after i flip 20 times in a row its still the same chance of heads or tails.

however, over an increasing sample you will tend to see a pattern of closer and closer to 50% heads 50% tails, this is similar to your run bad situation.

Its just as likely you will run bad 2morro but over a large sample you will tend to see your winrate move more towards your theoretical edge over the table

does that make sense

LudaHid: dam.ned dam.ned dam.ned. LudaHid: dam.ned northwooden as..hole

Gadget United States. Nov 15 2009 23:50. Posts 295

Ya thats what I was trying to say but didnt really know how to put it into words/didnt want to believe it.

qwerty67890 New Zealand. Nov 15 2009 23:52. Posts 14026

you wont run at EV constantly

you will continuously run above and below it. which will average out over time.

but if youre going through a bad streak and considering that you have to "make it through" then you might be subconciously misplaying hands or paying off in bad spots simply because you think to yourself "fuck im running bad...."

joLin United States. Nov 16 2009 00:20. Posts 3818

On November 15 2009 22:42 Gadget wrote:
If I run terrible for a week, lets say I am the most unlucky poker player in the world for a week (I'm not saying I am, just for this example). Then for the rest of my life there is no guarantee that it will ever even out. All that is guaranteed is that I should run at EV for the rest of my life after that point on average, not factoring the previous week into that average.

yup.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL

YoMeR United States. Nov 16 2009 04:54. Posts 12438

ya that's how the epic downswings start.

eZ Life.