Too nitty?

I've heard that you need at least a 100k hand sample at a limit to know what your true winrate is. Having been through 40k hand upswings and downswings, I can understand why that would be the case. I see lots of people (myself included) who move up limits too fast cause they run good at a lower one. Be sure you move up based on your skill being where it needs to be (ie you're totally crushing and super confident at the limit ur at). Or if you're a natural gosu who learns quickly, then you can move up a bit faster.

take a shot imo. start taking that 100k sample stuff starting at 200nl. your goal is to get out of micro/small stakes ASAP.
that will depend on you tho...

you're doing well man, keep it up.

take a smart, sound and STRUCTURED shot

from your results so far, it shouldn't be an issue at all.

gl to you in the future

Impressive graph, 25k not the greatest sample but even so you can fairly confidently assume you're a true winner at 50nl even if you are running above expectation (you may or may not be).

100k hand sample is not enough to know your true winrate, and since the games are constantly changing and improving it's pretty much impossible to know your exact "true" winrate.

^ then wouldn't it be better to take shots asap to improve your game at a faster pace? you may not know your true winrate but you'll know your real potential as a poker player.

NL100 is easy. a small change but not much. go for it.

take a shot at 100nl imo...just table select...maybe 5 buyin shot if u wanna be safe, 10 buyin shot if ur aggressive about the shot

On December 13 2009 03:16 genjix wrote: NL100 is easy. a small change but not much. go for it.

i find the difference between nl50 and nl100 big. i dunno if its about skill, but i played like 200k hands on both nl50 and nl100, and nl100 seems noticeably harder

On December 13 2009 05:36 CruiseR wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 03:16 genjix wrote: NL100 is easy. a small change but not much. go for it. i find the difference between nl50 and nl100 big. i dunno if its about skill, but i played like 200k hands on both nl50 and nl100, and nl100 seems noticeably harder

Genjix is notoriously known for his inability to value bet properly against bad players, so I don't think he will see much difference.

But there us noticeably less fish at NL100 and I think its the first limit where you have to table select properly and even use table tracking software to keep win rates above 3bb/100, unless you are higher stakes player crushing the stake with redline.

And for me sample size doesn't matter when taking a shot, it all depends on your tilt control and BR management and comfort zones.

I would personally stay on a limit until I hit a downswing (and you always will), because its so devastating for me when I move too fast without any downswings, crush the next limit and then the heater stops and I have trouble with moving down.

Another aspect is also your goals in poker, if it is to get as high as possible then you should have taken the shot at 2k
I personally play for fun when I am working with a goal of hitting $10k in 9 months while becoming an all round solid player with complex knowledge of poker mentality and betting patterns, and for that there is no pressure to move up and I have a 40BI for NL100 and 50BI for NL200 moving up thresholds.

Hey, I also live in Prague, we could hang out sometimes.
Btw I vote for taking a shot at NL100.

On December 13 2009 05:36 CruiseR wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 03:16 genjix wrote: NL100 is easy. a small change but not much. go for it. i find the difference between nl50 and nl100 big. i dunno if its about skill, but i played like 200k hands on both nl50 and nl100, and nl100 seems noticeably harder

word. I crush 50nl but am only a marginal winner at 100nl. There definitely is a large difference in aggression, both pre and postflop. That is my experience in both limits playing well over 100k hands at each limit. However this is in short handed games, genjix plays full ring so I don't know about that.

OP I think you should take a shot at 100nl by all means. Just be ready to move down if things don't go too well.

TY all for the encouragement.