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Learning From Europe |
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TenBagger   United States. Jan 12 2010 00:34. Posts 2018 | | |
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/11/opinion/11krugman.html?em
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 10, 2010
As health care reform nears the finish line, there is much wailing and rending of garments among conservatives. And I’m not just talking about the tea partiers. Even calmer conservatives have been issuing dire warnings that Obamacare will turn America into a European-style social democracy. And everyone knows that Europe has lost all its economic dynamism.
Strange to say, however, what everyone knows isn’t true. Europe has its economic troubles; who doesn’t? But the story you hear all the time — of a stagnant economy in which high taxes and generous social benefits have undermined incentives, stalling growth and innovation — bears little resemblance to the surprisingly positive facts. The real lesson from Europe is actually the opposite of what conservatives claim: Europe is an economic success, and that success shows that social democracy works.
Actually, Europe’s economic success should be obvious even without statistics. For those Americans who have visited Paris: did it look poor and backward? What about Frankfurt or London? You should always bear in mind that when the question is which to believe — official economic statistics or your own lying eyes — the eyes have it.
In any case, the statistics confirm what the eyes see.
It’s true that the U.S. economy has grown faster than that of Europe for the past generation. Since 1980 — when our politics took a sharp turn to the right, while Europe’s didn’t — America’s real G.D.P. has grown, on average, 3 percent per year. Meanwhile, the E.U. 15 — the bloc of 15 countries that were members of the European Union before it was enlarged to include a number of former Communist nations — has grown only 2.2 percent a year. America rules!
Or maybe not. All this really says is that we’ve had faster population growth. Since 1980, per capita real G.D.P. — which is what matters for living standards — has risen at about the same rate in America and in the E.U. 15: 1.95 percent a year here; 1.83 percent there.
What about technology? In the late 1990s you could argue that the revolution in information technology was passing Europe by. But Europe has since caught up in many ways. Broadband, in particular, is just about as widespread in Europe as it is in the United States, and it’s much faster and cheaper.
And what about jobs? Here America arguably does better: European unemployment rates are usually substantially higher than the rate here, and the employed fraction of the population lower. But if your vision is of millions of prime-working-age adults sitting idle, living on the dole, think again. In 2008, 80 percent of adults aged 25 to 54 in the E.U. 15 were employed (and 83 percent in France). That’s about the same as in the United States. Europeans are less likely than we are to work when young or old, but is that entirely a bad thing?
And Europeans are quite productive, too: they work fewer hours, but output per hour in France and Germany is close to U.S. levels.
The point isn’t that Europe is utopia. Like the United States, it’s having trouble grappling with the current financial crisis. Like the United States, Europe’s big nations face serious long-run fiscal issues — and like some individual U.S. states, some European countries are teetering on the edge of fiscal crisis. (Sacramento is now the Athens of America — in a bad way.) But taking the longer view, the European economy works; it grows; it’s as dynamic, all in all, as our own.
So why do we get such a different picture from many pundits? Because according to the prevailing economic dogma in this country — and I’m talking here about many Democrats as well as essentially all Republicans — European-style social democracy should be an utter disaster. And people tend to see what they want to see.
After all, while reports of Europe’s economic demise are greatly exaggerated, reports of its high taxes and generous benefits aren’t. Taxes in major European nations range from 36 to 44 percent of G.D.P., compared with 28 in the United States. Universal health care is, well, universal. Social expenditure is vastly higher than it is here.
So if there were anything to the economic assumptions that dominate U.S. public discussion — above all, the belief that even modestly higher taxes on the rich and benefits for the less well off would drastically undermine incentives to work, invest and innovate — Europe would be the stagnant, decaying economy of legend. But it isn’t.
Europe is often held up as a cautionary tale, a demonstration that if you try to make the economy less brutal, to take better care of your fellow citizens when they’re down on their luck, you end up killing economic progress. But what European experience actually demonstrates is the opposite: social justice and progress can go hand in hand.
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TenBagger   United States. Jan 12 2010 00:38. Posts 2018 | | |
While I'm at it, here's another one for the Austrian Schoolers out there from the most respected scientific journal
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-social-welfare-state
From the November 2006 Scientific American Magazine
The Social Welfare State, beyond Ideology
Are higher taxes and strong social "safety nets" antagonistic to a prosperous market economy? The evidence is now in
By Jeffrey D. Sachs
One of the great challenges of sustainable development is to combine society's desires for economic prosperity and social security. For decades economists and politicians have debated how to reconcile the undoubted power of markets with the reassuring protections of social insurance. America's supply-siders claim that the best way to achieve well-being for America's poor is by spurring rapid economic growth and that the higher taxes needed to fund high levels of social insurance would cripple prosperity. Austrian-born free-market economist Friedrich August von Hayek suggested that high taxation would be a "road to serfdom," a threat to freedom itself.*
Most of the debate in the U.S. is clouded by vested interests and by ideology. Yet there is by now a rich empirical record to judge these issues scientifically. The evidence may be found by comparing a group of relatively free-market economies that have low to moderate rates of taxation and social outlays with a group of social-welfare states that have high rates of taxation and social outlays.
Not coincidentally, the low-tax, high-income countries are mostly English-speaking ones that share a direct historical lineage with 19th-century Britain and its theories of economic laissez-faire. These countries include Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the U.K. and the U.S. The high-tax, high-income states are the Nordic social democracies, notably Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, which have been governed by left-of-center social democratic parties for much or all of the post�World War II era. They combine a healthy respect for market forces with a strong commitment to antipoverty programs. Budgetary outlays for social purposes average around 27 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the Nordic countries and just 17 percent of GDP in the English-speaking countries.
Friedrich Von Hayek was wrong
On average, the Nordic countries outperform the Anglo-Saxon ones on most measures of economic performance. Poverty rates are much lower there, and national income per working-age population is on average higher. Unemployment rates are roughly the same in both groups, just slightly higher in the Nordic countries. The budget situation is stronger in the Nordic group, with larger surpluses as a share of GDP.
The Nordic countries maintain their dynamism despite high taxation in several ways. Most important, they spend lavishly on research and development and higher education. All of them, but especially Sweden and Finland, have taken to the sweeping revolution in information and communications technology and leveraged it to gain global competitiveness. Sweden now spends nearly 4 percent of GDP on R&D, the highest ratio in the world today. On average, the Nordic nations spend 3 percent of GDP on R&D, compared with around 2 percent in the English-speaking nations.
The Nordic states have also worked to keep social expenditures compatible with an open, competitive, market-based economic system. Tax rates on capital are relatively low. Labor market policies pay low-skilled and otherwise difficult-to-employ individuals to work in the service sector, in key quality-of-life areas such as child care, health, and support for the elderly and disabled.
The results for the households at the bottom of the income distribution are astoundingly good, especially in contrast to the mean-spirited neglect that now passes for American social policy. The U.S. spends less than almost all rich countries on social services for the poor and disabled, and it gets what it pays for: the highest poverty rate among the rich countries and an exploding prison population. Actually, by shunning public spending on health, the U.S. gets much less than it pays for, because its dependence on private health care has led to a ramshackle system that yields mediocre results at very high costs.
Von Hayek was wrong. In strong and vibrant democracies, a generous social-welfare state is not a road to serfdom but rather to fairness, economic equality and international competitiveness. |
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| Last edit: 12/01/2010 00:40 |
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Etherone   Canada. Jan 12 2010 01:44. Posts 753 | | |
Stop spilling our secrets. we europeans are broke, sad, uneducated, lazy, individuals, and above all SOCIALISTS (GASP*) leave us be.
but we do all know the name of a country that starts with a U and it isn't Yugoslavia |
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k2o4   United States. Jan 12 2010 01:59. Posts 4803 | | |
bravo, that was a great read and confirms what I've always thought! |
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Silver_nz   New Zealand. Jan 12 2010 02:08. Posts 5647 | | |
quality linkage.
I request material about beating the stockmarket next time~ |
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Sicks Macks   United States. Jan 12 2010 03:00. Posts 3929 | | |
Greg Mankiw (Harvard Prof, ex-CEA head, and general Krugman nemesis) believes Paul is being misleading:
| Here is GDP per capita, adjusted for differences in price levels (PPP), from the IMF, for the United States and the five most populous countries in Western Europe:
United States 47,440
United Kingdom 36,358
Germany 35,539
France 34,205
Italy 30,631
Spain 30,589
Readers of today's column by Paul Krugman might find these figures useful to keep in mind. |
from http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/ |
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kingpowa   France. Jan 12 2010 06:05. Posts 1525 | | |
I don't get this post, Sick Macks (so Mankiw's one).
Does he want to prove economic situation is better in the US ?
So he would consider GDP as a self-consistent indicator ?
It's far to be one. About the purely ecocomic part. Gross national income (GNI), which also traduces the flows with other countries, would be better than GDP. And next you could compare with "The purchasing power parity" (PPP) theory uses the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to equalize their purchasing power. (wikipedia).
But what Krugman wants to show is that the economy can'be resume with just incomes.
you can take into account healthcare, disparity, poorness, education... something that we could call quality of life.
I'm just saying, that the aim is not to have a better GDP but a better quality life.
Edit for mispelling Sick Macks. |
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sorry for shitty english. | Last edit: 12/01/2010 06:15 |
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Achoo   Canada. Jan 12 2010 06:05. Posts 1454 | | |
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Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not | |
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toby71au   Australia. Jan 12 2010 06:10. Posts 160 | | |
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when you reach the end of your rope tie a knot and hang on! | |
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kingpowa   France. Jan 12 2010 06:14. Posts 1525 | | |
I think that there is a disconnection with the principal economies indicators with the reality. And there is something one could question : is economic growth in the sense of the GDP really relevant ? About some areas like employments, incomes, I guess it is. But it fails to traduce a lot of other realities.
The english comission of the sustainable development studied this. I really advise to read at least the summary.
For example, they worked on an indicator of happiness. Studied the link between incomes and happiness. Obviously the relation is not linear. So it's kinda fresh.
http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/pages/redefining-prosperity.html |
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sorry for shitty english. | |
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Sicks Macks   United States. Jan 12 2010 06:19. Posts 3929 | | |
| On January 12 2010 05:05 kingpowa wrote:
I don't get this post, Sick Macks (so Mankiw's one).
Does he want to prove economic situation is better in the US ?
So he would consider GDP as a self-consistent indicator ?
It's far to be one. About the purely ecocomic part. Gross national income (GNI), which also traduces the flows with other countries, would be better than GDP. And next you could compare with "The purchasing power parity" (PPP) theory uses the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to equalize their purchasing power. (wikipedia).
But what Krugman wants to show is that the economy can'be resume with just incomes.
you can take into account healthcare, disparity, poorness, education... something that we could call quality of life.
I'm just saying, that the aim is not to have a better GDP but a better quality life.
Edit for mispelling Sick Macks. |
I think Mankiw is using Purchasing Power Parity-adjusted incomes to get at quality of life better than the pure GDP-per-cap can. He's saying US citizens can consume over 50% as many goods and services (including many of the things you mention) relative to their European counterparts, |
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Mr. Will Throwit | Last edit: 12/01/2010 06:20 |
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kingpowa   France. Jan 12 2010 06:26. Posts 1525 | | |
I've just read the second post of Mankiw's blog. And it's about the 290.000 speeding ticket (big topic on this). He presents his reflexion based on simple economical theory.
But still quite meh. I have lost an uncle in a car accident (in Switzerland...). Part of the accident is due to the over speed of the other car involved... So I can see other arguments than his but I still agree with what he put. |
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sorry for shitty english. | |
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kingpowa   France. Jan 12 2010 06:36. Posts 1525 | | |
To Sikcs Macks.
It is indeed. My fault.
But I don't agree on the fact that it takes into account what I have said. As an average it doesn't consider the repartition.
And in the so called "Market basket" used to calculate PPP, we would have to see if a tooth surgery is in (^_^). I obviously mean something that is related to healthcare, social aid... |
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sorry for shitty english. | |
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tec27   United States. Jan 12 2010 07:24. Posts 173 | | |
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Poker Streams | |
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