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Decide not to waste space on Lowstake forum. |
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hiems   United States. Feb 01 2010 13:48. Posts 2979 | | |
Yeah. I can't just be flooding threads with my ramblings for review purposes. So i decided to kinda copy mariuslol and write any notes I have that I would like to hear feedback from in my blog. Of course, any interesting hands I think are thread worthy or that I really want feedback on I will just post of course.
But if I can get feedback on stuff in my blog, thatd be awesome too.
I think a big part of poker is reviewing your hands effectively // ranging based on reads. The two are inter-related I think. Problem is I have for many reasons, taken half assed approach to hand review. And so this is my attempt to work on that part of poker.
This hand is a hypothetical one from a thread i was reading...But I wanted to try to work on ranging it nonetheless for the reasons mentioned.
6 Max game, you are on the button. MP raises and you 3bet. He calls. 100bb stacks.
Lets say he is a 20/18 player that has a fold to 3bet of like 60%
Flop comes KT4 dd.
He checks. You bet 2/3. He calls.
Turn - Bet is better than check I am assuming? I would assume this because he can't have all too many Kings here, and theres probably more draws than made hands. Its just that I can't be compeletely confident because I am not sure what his 3bet calling range is here. How often does he show up with KJs and KTs here? What about offsuit? Do you put 44 in his range?
How many suited connectors // Ax suited type of hands can he have. I thought a decent estimate be a 56s - QJs and A5s-AJs... But what frequency do you think is an accurate estimate to apply to these type of hands? 50%? 25%?
And over a large sample, What type of fold to 3bet% would indicate he calls with suited one gappers?
Draws : 56s-QJs, A5s-AJs
Small Pairs : 55-99
TP : AK(How often??), KQ, KJs
Monsters : KTs, TT, 44, AK
In terms of the turn play...Lets say your reads on the opponent were that he seems the be aggressive with his strong draws, passive with his weaker ones.
you dont have any reads on how he plays his monsters vs TP type of hands.
Of his draws, how strong of a draw do you assume the opponent check/raises the flop with versus hands that he flat calls?
Do you assume he check raises with KQ, AK, KTs, TT, 44 the flop close to 100%? If this is read dependent, what type of read do you look for to know how this works?
Anyway I guess the moral of the story is bet turn is better than check turn cause his monsters and Kings are few and he can have JJ, and a ton of draws.
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I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] | |
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thumbz555   United States. Feb 01 2010 13:58. Posts 3281 | | |
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hiems   United States. Feb 01 2010 14:03. Posts 2979 | | |
I guess my writing does need a bit of work |
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I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] | |
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Silver_nz   New Zealand. Feb 01 2010 14:43. Posts 5647 | | |
writing isn't bad, at least i can follow your thoughts
from a quick read through sounds like you could benefit from thinking about combinatronics: e.g. there are 16 way of putting the 4 suits together to make KQ, but only 6 ways to make JJ. and there are 4 combos of any suited hand like 56s: and only one of those combos hits any particular flop's fluhdraw. seen this article?
Yes you need to have a read on their postflop play if you want to make better decisions. you need to understand how they would think about a flop c-r when they have top pair. what type of thinking do they use? are they thinking on level 1 and just betting their hands based on absolute strength? are they aware of what your range could be, how it is often very weak. are they basing their decisions on something sapzzy like the timing of your bet? you can create a decent model of their thinking by looking at hands they get to showdown, and walking through the hand in their shoes. or you can stick to a general robotic style for a particular limit and not worry about it.
anyway, thats my quick thoughts, hope you can take something of value from them. |
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SemPeR   Canada. Feb 01 2010 15:24. Posts 2288 | | |
I was going to just paste your post and answer your questions one by one...but im finding the answer to pretty much every question is "it depends".
Eg, two guys playing 20/18 can have myriad different ranges in all the spots you mentioned. My recommendation would be to do what silver said, just don't go insane with the graphs and analysis. Pull up notepad and get some simple "ranges people hit flops with in different situations". Very loose, like "highbroadways pps", and work out combos for that and how they change depending on what you add/remove. Don't go much farther than that because you really won't know what to do with the info. If you're comfortable with the statement "A range of QQ+,AK, is 50% AK", you probably need to do little more in this area.
Then go back to playing poker. The only way you can get stuff like "But what frequency do you think is an accurate estimate to apply to these type of hands?" is seeing people do shit with them.
Like w/ the 44 on KT4....it's futile to think you'll be able to do some math and somehow figure out how to play optimally against all 20/18s. It's more like "I saw him be a station for 3 streets w/ a draw flopping a marginal pair on the river 20 minutes ago and made a note, so when he c/c's I'm probably not going to weight sets very strongly. I'll probably play as if he doesn't have them in his range. |
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hiems   United States. Feb 01 2010 15:25. Posts 2979 | | |
I do know of hand combos, but I would say im just a beginner when it comes to applying them in real time. Usually the problem is that I need to think of all the combos faster...The problem I think is that I kinda suck at ranging. I am not great at discounting hands that shouldn't show up 100% of the time. (Ex he doesnt call pf with each suited connector 100% so I don't want to give him credit for 4 combinations 78s. The fact that discounting them is basically an estimate, and I dont really have great experience // intuition for the estimate makes me feel less confident about decisions // slows the process down. Also, I think I need to be faster in making calculations for suited connectors or suited aces type of hands. Ex if he can call with 56s-QJs and each suited connector has 4 combos, how many is that total? I am trying start thinking of K=13 so I can do (12 (for Q) - 5 + 1) * 4 in my head quicker. Just a matter of practice I guess.
I have read the G-Bucks article before. I think its one of the most important articles I have read poker wise.
But what you said about reads I am just learning from maybe 2-3 weeks ago. I have a friend who basically plays only on reads and basic understanding of theory and he is like 10x better player than I am. TBH I usually don't think about the other player's level in making decisions. Maybe like 50% of hands I will think about it on a subconscious level, but I can see the benefits of getting myself to verbalize this often. |
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I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] | Last edit: 01/02/2010 15:26 |
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SemPeR   Canada. Feb 01 2010 15:27. Posts 2288 | | |
sighz i haven't slept.
that last example clearly needs some work. if you can, forget I wrote it. =p
just take from it:
"watch guys play hands and try to figure out their reasons. It will be more useful than trying to approximate precise frequencies".
This is because the very general frequencies (like he can only have 12 combos of sets there, TT/44) we can know.
Like if you see someone c/r the nut flush draw and shove, you should at least be forming an image of him, if not making a concrete note abuot how the hand went down
edit:
a much better example:
-when you see a guy playing 40/13, you have a pretty awesome template for how to play him in every other spot. Shit that pops into my head is "he wants to play lots of hands", "he likes to see flops", and to a lesser degree "he probably dislikes folding more than the next guy".
Just having those two numbers means you should never be cbetting just because you raised pre, you'll actually have a plan. If u focus 90% of your energy on this aspect of play, you'll never become a robot grinder with nothing but stats to play by. It's a much easier thing to say than do tho. |
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hiems   United States. Feb 01 2010 15:34. Posts 2979 | | |
| On February 01 2010 14:24 SemPeR wrote:
I was going to just paste your post and answer your questions one by one...but im finding the answer to pretty much every question is "it depends".
Eg, two guys playing 20/18 can have myriad different ranges in all the spots you mentioned. My recommendation would be to do what silver said, just don't go insane with the graphs and analysis. Pull up notepad and get some simple "ranges people hit flops with in different situations". Very loose, like "highbroadways pps", and work out combos for that and how they change depending on what you add/remove. Don't go much farther than that because you really won't know what to do with the info. If you're comfortable with the statement "A range of QQ+,AK, is 50% AK", you probably need to do little more in this area.
Then go back to playing poker. The only way you can get stuff like "But what frequency do you think is an accurate estimate to apply to these type of hands?" is seeing people do shit with them.
Like w/ the 44 on KT4....it's futile to think you'll be able to do some math and somehow figure out how to play optimally against all 20/18s. It's more like "I saw him be a station for 3 streets w/ a draw flopping a marginal pair on the river 20 minutes ago and made a note, so when he c/c's I'm probably not going to weight sets very strongly. I'll probably play as if he doesn't have them in his range. |
Its great to get reinforcement in the right direction to go! Basically, just work on my reads // how game works.
"Pull up notepad and get some simple "ranges people hit flops with in different situations". Very loose, like "highbroadways pps", and work out combos for that and how they change depending on what you add/remove:
What do you mean by "hit flops with" - Call 3bets? And then your saying to glance at the combos there are? Or to work with pokerstove?
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I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] | |
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hiems   United States. Feb 01 2010 15:43. Posts 2979 | | |
| On February 01 2010 14:27 SemPeR wrote:
just take from it:
"watch guys play hands and try to figure out their reasons. It will be more useful than trying to approximate precise frequencies".
This is because the very general frequencies (like he can only have 12 combos of sets there, TT/44) we can know.
Like if you see someone c/r the nut flush draw and shove, you should at least be forming an image of him, if not making a concrete note abuot how the hand went down
If u focus 90% of your energy on this aspect of play, you'll never become a robot grinder with nothing but stats to play by. It's a much easier thing to say than do tho. |
Noted. I think for a long time I was paranoid cause I don't know all the math, but shoulda have done more to improve my player reading // actual poker. |
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I beat Loco!!! [img]https://i.imgur.com/wkwWj2d.png[/img] | |
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