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TenBagger United States. Feb 06 2010 19:50. Posts 2018

God I have no idea why I'm about to do this, I can just sense the doomswitch coming.

I've been running super hot in basketball betting so far this season and if you read the previous blog entry even my mistakes have been turning out in my favor. A couple people asked me about my strategy.

I have a simple program that gives me basic probabilities and over/unders based on a rudimentary algorithm. It gives me a starting point and from there, I incorporate my own instincts to make some picks. It surely isn't as scientific as I would want it to be and I plan on spending a lot more time improving the algorithm and putting together a more robust model. Ideally, the system would be working off a lot more math and a lot less of my own gut.

I know people out there have massive databases of information with stuff like referee's foul calling tendencies and they are probably a lot more +EV than I am. However, since I've got a ton of money on a ridiculous number of fantasy basketball leagues and I watch almost every single game anyway, I figured I'm at least marginally +EV, especially since I bet on matchbook where the vig (rake) is much smaller.

I swear, the minute I make my picks public, I'm gonna get doomswitched, but whatever, fuck it. here are my bets for tonight:

miami +105 $380.95 to win $400
memphis -134 $400 to win $298.51
Indiana +222 $180.18 to win $400

under 186.5 (NJ/DET) +102 $196.08 to win $200
Over 209 (Mem/Min) -105 $200 to win $190.48

Risking $1357.21 to win $1488.99

Wish me luck and may my heater continue.

0 votes

acdawg712 United States. Feb 06 2010 21:35. Posts 2639

i made 2 nba bets tonight and 1 one of them was a parlay with the same o/u picks you made. It's not looking good lol. The other one was Lakers -3.5.

phil hellmuth is genuinely a stupid person and he does not understand poker very well at all - [vital]myth

asdf2000 United States. Feb 06 2010 21:36. Posts 7695

wishing you luck, lol

Grindin so hard, Im smashin pussies left and right.

lostaccount Canada. Feb 06 2010 21:39. Posts 6183

gl tenbagger ill be using your picks alot.

Lucky fish

LilDeano89 Australia. Feb 06 2010 21:43. Posts 576

gl!

Money aint a thang

Rush United States. Feb 06 2010 22:57. Posts 2299

LOL taking lakers at -3.5 they haven't won in portland in like 8 years.

Do you even know what DK stands for?

TenBagger United States. Feb 06 2010 23:02. Posts 2018

ah knew I'd jinx myself

1-4 down $966.73 on the night.

TenBagger United States. Feb 06 2010 23:04. Posts 2018

and the model told me to bet on the hornets who were like -350 or something like that but I decided to bet the heat instead. thought that wade would have a field day with the bulls having no interior shot blockers with noah out.

acdawg712 United States. Feb 07 2010 03:52. Posts 2639

HEY RUSH WHO IS LAUGHING NOW? NEITHER OF US.

phil hellmuth is genuinely a stupid person and he does not understand poker very well at all - [vital]myth

sweetbread Czech Republic. Feb 07 2010 04:02. Posts 159

which book do you use?