[Q] Sample sizes & Winrates

well its so hard to say

if u play 100k hands with a 2bb/100 winrate u make 20 buy ins

and then in the next 2k hands u have 2 terrible -10 BI sessions ur a 0bb/100 winner over 102k hands and 2k hands ago u were a 2bb/100 winner

its so hard to say, u prolly need atleast 500k hands to tell, but since u will develop as a player u prolly played better poker the last 250k hands then the first 250k hands, so u still cant say since the games change, you change, and variance can be huge

u probably will never know what kind of a winner u are at a specific stake since if ur a winning player u probably have already moved up from that stake by the time u reach that samplesize of a single stake

so unless u play 1 stake for 1 million hands, u never really really will know ur true winrate

ive had -30 bi sessions and +30 bi sessions, and been breakeven for 200k hands sometimes

its just so hard to say, ive removed that stat from my holdemmanager

I am very skeptical to ever knowing ones true winrate, the games and your own game are constantly changing and evolving, that plus the fact that variance is so big and exists on so many levels.. I guess it depends on how accurate you want it to be. I am pulling numbers out of my ass atm just to make an example, but with that sample size I think a fair assumption is that your true winrate is somewere between 1-3BB during that sample.

I guess you wanted to avoid these kinds of answers, in your face.

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JSquid is like a promoter of half naked girls, whenever a thread is boring in his opinion, he comes a long and posts something that will pick up the quality of the thread.
So fuckin' random in a way.

$/hour is all that matters. Winrate doesn't matter, just put in the hours.

On April 15 2010 12:07 Twisted wrote: $/hour is all that matters. Winrate doesn't matter, just put in the hours.

noted, thanks

if you have 2bb/100 i'd say 150k hands is a pretty good sample.

Ive seen graphs of people with .5winrates go on 500k hand downswings.

On April 15 2010 12:07 Twisted wrote: $/hour is all that matters. Winrate doesn't matter, just put in the hours.

+1000000000...i put in almost 0 hrs...trying to fix that

On April 15 2010 11:31 DarkDevildog wrote: I want to know how many more hand I should play before I "accept" my winrate.

Over 9,000