Calculated Risks

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TenBagger United States. Apr 26 2010 17:11. Posts 2018

I read the following NYTimes article about probabilities yesterday: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/chances-are/

And that lead me to purchase this book: http://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Risks-Know-Numbers-Deceive/dp/0743205561

It deals primarily with conditional probability:

"Perhaps the most pulse-quickening topic of all is “conditional probability” — the probability that some event A happens, given (or “conditional” upon) the occurrence of some other event B. It’s a slippery concept, easily conflated with the probability of B given A. They’re not the same, but you have to concentrate to see why. For example, consider the following word problem.

Before going on vacation for a week, you ask your spacey friend to water your ailing plant. Without water, the plant has a 90 percent chance of dying. Even with proper watering, it has a 20 percent chance of dying. And the probability that your friend will forget to water it is 30 percent. (a) What’s the chance that your plant will survive the week? (b) If it’s dead when you return, what’s the chance that your friend forgot to water it? (c) If your friend forgot to water it, what’s the chance it’ll be dead when you return?"

Some interesting statistical concepts:

Simpson's Paradox - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
Prosecutor's Fallacy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy
Bayes' Theorem - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Confounding Variables - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding
Monte Hall - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

The ability to properly interpret statistics and to accurately assess probabilities is a key component to success in various games that I play such as poker, fantasy sports and sports betting. However, it is also an important part of making good decisions in everyday life and I think this book has given me a slightly better perspective. A lot of the book is common sense and won't be very useful for anyone with a statistics educational background but I definitely think that it is a recommended read for most people and especially for poker players whose livelihood depends on their ability to use probability to make good decisions.

0 votes

Kapol Poland. Apr 26 2010 17:48. Posts 4696

Just look up conditional probability on Wikipedia. You don't need no books.

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sniderstyle United States. Apr 26 2010 18:22. Posts 2046

thanks for the links, I'll check it them out when I have some free time.

Genginho: lose today 100 dollar only because of fishs they called and had luck on river

Mariuslol Norway. Apr 26 2010 18:24. Posts 4742

Interesting, I did try the wikipedia, but that stuff is way to complicated for me.

Bigbobm United States. Apr 26 2010 19:02. Posts 5511

heh if you think thats complicated wait till you get to the real hard stuff in probability

Its time to stop thinking like a bitch and think smart like a poker player - ket

YoMeR United States. Apr 26 2010 19:57. Posts 12438

interesting, thx for sharing.

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