Bluff Math

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Silver_nz New Zealand. May 30 2010 11:56. Posts 5647

Exercises in betsizing and fold frequencies

You are sitting at the virtual felt of HIGH STAKES online poker vs some nits. So, with duct tape over our hole cards, you bet into a pot of money to try to win it. If the bet is half of the pot size, then the % of the time it at least has to work is the bet/ bet+pot: 33% of the time for a half pot bet: that's gosu. If they fold half the time you're rolling in cash.

And if its not on the river, then will have equity to suckout with the half pot bluff, would mean it needs to work even less often, 9% equity often meaning he has to fold only something like 25% of the time to a pot size bet.

Exercising the math-mind; Yea a bit simplified for starters, some hands I played:

Villian is a tight reg

Dealing

to AR
Gummzo folds
Jozef folds
jandro11 folds
AR raises to $16
0800CASH folds
RayBan23 folds
AlanPartidge calls $16
Shergarr007 calls $16
nikola3 folds
*** Dealing Flop ***
Shergarr007 checks
AR bets $32____________________- This bluff is 32 into 48 = 32/(48+32) = 40% of pot. Each needs to fold about 60%
AlanPartidge calls $32____________of the time to make a direct profit, however I have some backup equity. At least 9%
Shergarr007 folds _______________of the money that goes in: 9% of 144 = $12 BUT if he raises my bet this doesn't play
*** Dealing Turn ***
AR bets $75_____________________-I see that the pot is $144, I choose to bluff $75 into it. 75/(144+75)= 34% of the
AlanPartidge calls $75____________time has to get a fold. If I had bet $100 would have been 40%. $50, only 25%
*** Dealing River ***
AR checks______________________-Now on the river: could I bluff here? Pot is $296. Jam would be $277, needs about
AlanPartidge checks______________48%. betting smaller could fold out nearly as much of his range though: a bet of
Taking Rake of $3 from pot 1_______$75 would need to work 20% of the time – if he is a nit at heart, this could be EV+
AR shows

AR has Two Pairs: Queens, 10s
AlanPartidge shows

AlanPartidge has Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
AlanPartidge wins $263 with: Two Pairs: Aces, Queens
Will think combos in another post, here just calibrating my feel for pot odds.

This hand has a raise in it, which is slightly different to calculate the % needed to fold.

Villian is a reg who doesn't like to give up. FastE is spewy.

Dealing

to AR
FastEddieTwo calls $4
Jozef folds
jandro11 calls $4
AR raises to $20
Gangstreet folds
AlanPartidge folds
Shergarr007 folds
nikola3 folds
hengkalousai folds
FastEddieTwo calls $20
jandro11 calls $20
*** Dealing Flop ***
FastEddieTwo bets $32
jandro11 calls $32_______________-Pot is $124, I risk $128 so fold freq $128/($124+$128) = 51% if jandro
AR raises to $128________________shoves I lose $96 more than in the case I call, but the times that they call here
jandro11 calls $128______________(often w these types of player) my bluff will only need to work
*** Dealing Turn ***_($128 - ($340*18%)) / ($124+$128) = 26% - still alot for a 3way pot
jandro11 checks
AR bets $791.40 (all-in)_________-Shoving it in here he needs to fold 47% of his range. Is this the case? Would have to
jandro11 calls $311 (all-in)_______look at his turn peeling range and his getting-it-in range. OESD, other flushdraws,
____________________________perhaps marginals pairs might peel-fold. A calc for another time.

So these were very quick and simple, but just to give a grasp of fold freq %'s needed for different bluff sizes.

Any feedback welcome, Goodnight fellows.

0 votes

Last edit: 30/05/2010 12:08

gawdawaful Canada. May 30 2010 11:58. Posts 9012

fasteddies a nit postflop

Im only good at poker when I run good

Silver_nz New Zealand. May 30 2010 12:07. Posts 5647

I think this is a different one? This guy was giving away money and not rebuying full.

acdawg712 United States. May 30 2010 12:18. Posts 2639

Nice article. Explains basics well. I look forward to the next article to refresh the fundamentals.

phil hellmuth is genuinely a stupid person and he does not understand poker very well at all - [vital]myth

PanoRaMa United States. May 30 2010 12:38. Posts 1655

On May 30 2010 10:58 gawdawaful wrote:
fasteddies a nit postflop

that isnt THE fasteddie in msnl

http://panorama.liquidpoker.net