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Probably my biggest leak |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 09:33. Posts 61 | | |
In the last 200 hands I played at NL10 SH. I played 6 hands in which I correctly read my opponent's hand ranges to a point were I was 80% certain of the exact cards. I made the play I considered optimal in each situation yet it backfired.
This ALWAYS happen to me, like at the very least 4-5 times a session. And since I trust my reads I always end up losing huge pots. Especially when I play deep... I think this is my biggest leak, I just lose so munch to stuff like that (see examples provided) it's unbelievable.
Here are the last two hands where I was 100% right about villain's range or exact hands and still lost.
Submitted by : UN4
NL Holdem $0.10 BB Poker Stars Game#50193338623
Tiggi23 $26.22
SKIDADZ $15.38
By.EIite $30.09
farjolboy $25
Artomeon $33.10
gryghy $12.91
Tiggi23 posts SB $0.05
SKIDADZ posts BB $0.10
gryghy antes $0.02
Tiggi23 antes $0.02
SKIDADZ antes $0.02
By.EIite antes $0.02
farjolboy antes $0.02
Artomeon antes $0.02
Dealt to By.EIiteAd
By.EIite raises to $0.32
fold, fold, fold, fold,
SKIDADZ calls $0.20
Flop (Pot : $0) SKIDADZ checks
By.EIite bets $0.50
SKIDADZ calls $0.50
Turn (Pot : $0) SKIDADZ checks
By.EIite bets $1.20
SKIDADZ calls $1.20
RIVER $4.17
SKIDADZ checks
By.EIite bets $3
SKIDADZ calls $3
SKIDADZ shows7s
Pre 61%, Flop 78.7%, Turn 90.9%
By.EIite showsAd
Pre 39%, Flop 21.3%, Turn 9.1%
SKIDADZ wins $9.68
Submitted by : UN4
NL Holdem $0.10 BB Poker Stars Game#50193452142
farjolboy $25
Artomeon $33.04
gryghy $14.20
Tiggi23 $26.38
SKIDADZ $18.95
By.EIite $25
farjolboy posts SB $0.05
Artomeon posts BB $0.10
gryghy antes $0.02
Tiggi23 antes $0.02
SKIDADZ antes $0.02
By.EIite antes $0.02
farjolboy antes $0.02
Artomeon antes $0.02
Dealt to By.EIiteAs
fold, fold,
SKIDADZ calls $0.10
By.EIite raises to $0.42
fold, fold,
SKIDADZ calls $0.30
Flop (Pot : $0) SKIDADZ checks
By.EIite bets $0.60
SKIDADZ calls $0.60
Turn (Pot : $0) SKIDADZ bets $1.10
By.EIite raises to $3.30
SKIDADZ calls $2.20
RIVER $8.87
SKIDADZ checks
By.EIite bets $6.20
SKIDADZ calls $6.20
SKIDADZ shows6d
Pre 28%, Flop 81.0%, Turn 72.7%
By.EIite showsAs
Pre 72%, Flop 19.0%, Turn 27.3%
SKIDADZ wins $20.23
Any tips ?
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| Last edit: 26/09/2010 09:41 |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 09:55. Posts 61 | | |
Sorry if this is considered variance or what not... Take it as a rant blog I guess... Being down 14 Buy-in in one day at NL10 is not easy for my mental health |
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Kapol   Poland. Sep 26 2010 10:09. Posts 4696 | | |
Stop bluffing. Just wait until you hit a good card and value-bet the shit out of them. There's no need to win every single pot, especially when your opponents can't get rid of medium-strength hands. |
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BIBLE (Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth) | Last edit: 26/09/2010 10:11 |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 10:22. Posts 61 | | |
| On September 26 2010 09:09 Kapol wrote:
Stop bluffing. Just wait until you hit a good card and value-bet the shit out of them. There's no need to win every single pot, especially when your opponents can't get rid of medium-strength hands. |
I know you speak the truth but that's harder done then said.
For example, if you open every suited aces and pretty munch every pocket pairs from almost all positions, you can't just wait to hit something, you will lose on the long run, you got to be able to turn these hands in a bluff from time to time to show a profit. Am I wrong ?
And when you get the feeling you know villain's range or cards, I've been told to trusth my reads is that also incorrect ? |
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player999   Brasil. Sep 26 2010 10:27. Posts 7978 | | |
just because u know his hand is weak doesnt mean hes gonna fold it
my opponents learn that everyday |
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Browsing through your hand histories makes me wonder that you might not be aware these games are possibly play money. Have you ever tried to cash out? - Kapol | |
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Mariuslol   Norway. Sep 26 2010 10:29. Posts 4742 | | |
Hands don't show, but if ur bluffing station, ur the one playing bad. No matter if you have them on correct range. I "always" vs fishes, have them on almost the exact hand at the range, so does everyone else half competent.
Then you find out, Can I bluff here?
You look at the player type, is he not topped up? Does he seem REALLY cally? If so, probably no!!!
14bi is common, why people move up and down, and use large bankrolls. |
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Kapol   Poland. Sep 26 2010 10:32. Posts 4696 | | |
I'm not saying you can't continuation-bet. Of course you have to do it regularly. What I'm saying is when your face resistance after your aggressive play there is no need to try to get him off his hand, even when you feel he doesn't have much, because most likely he will call you down anyway and you will lose to some stupid 2nd pair. Just check down and proceed to the next hand. |
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BIBLE (Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth) | |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 10:39. Posts 61 | | |
| On September 26 2010 09:29 Mariuslol wrote:
Hands don't show, but if ur bluffing station, ur the one playing bad. No matter if you have them on correct range. I "always" vs fishes, have them on almost the exact hand at the range, so does everyone else half competent.
Then you find out, Can I bluff here?
You look at the player type, is he not topped up? Does he seem REALLY cally? If so, probably no!!!
14bi is common, why people move up and down, and use large bankrolls. |
Great post, thanks.
It's hard for me to think that people won't fold third pair or second pair with a weak kicker you know. I just never understand why or how they can make these calls, especially since I don't have a crazy image, I normally play standard...
And since all players that play NL10 are to an extent fishes, if you never bluff vs them, is it still possible to show long term profit with a PFR of 25% or do you have to NIT it up ? |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 10:43. Posts 61 | | |
| On September 26 2010 09:32 Kapol wrote:
I'm not saying you can't continuation-bet. Of course you have to do it regularly. What I'm saying is when your face resistance after your aggressive play there is no need to try to get him off his hand, even when you feel he doesn't have much, because most likely he will call you down anyway and you will lose to some stupid 2nd pair. Just check down and proceed to the next hand. |
So basically a c-bet is as far as you take a weak hand..ok.
So you don't balance your ranges more then that post-flop ?
Do you also think that balancing c/c, c/r and c-betting ranges on the flop is a good idea or should those concepts be throw out the window ?
I'm asking these questions in regards to the everyday NL10 SH game on PokerStars with like 2 NIT, one or two loose passive players (fish) and a TAG. |
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| Last edit: 26/09/2010 11:01 |
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Mariuslol   Norway. Sep 26 2010 11:06. Posts 4742 | | |
Image, don't even try to grasp the concept before you're at 2-4, fuck image!! xD |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Sep 26 2010 11:22. Posts 15163 | | |
| On September 26 2010 09:43 UN4 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2010 09:32 Kapol wrote:
I'm not saying you can't continuation-bet. Of course you have to do it regularly. What I'm saying is when your face resistance after your aggressive play there is no need to try to get him off his hand, even when you feel he doesn't have much, because most likely he will call you down anyway and you will lose to some stupid 2nd pair. Just check down and proceed to the next hand. |
So basically a c-bet is as far as you take a weak hand..ok.
So you don't balance your ranges more then that post-flop ?
Do you also think that balancing c/c, c/r and c-betting ranges on the flop is a good idea or should those concepts be throw out the window ?
I'm asking these questions in regards to the everyday NL10 SH game on PokerStars with like 2 NIT, one or two loose passive players (fish) and a TAG.
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nit=no need to balance
fish=no need to balanced
TAG=balance if he responds to your varied bets or if you are very active against each other.
Against fish it should be your standard to alter betsizes based on your hand strenght and and absolutely forget about balance, and only take it into consideration if you have sufficient evidence that the fish is responding.
Nits at micros autopilot, no need to balance ever. |
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LemOn[5thF]   Czech Republic. Sep 26 2010 11:27. Posts 15163 | | |
And listen to the nerd above me |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 11:40. Posts 61 | | |
Thank you for your post LemOn !
You mention balancing against TAGs which we assume are good regs and therefore ok-decent players.
But do you only balance against him ? Because if he's paying attention and sees you playing very standard against everybody else at the table and suddenly c/r and c/c a lot more against him he's gonna get suspicious no ?
As a more general question do you balance your range only vs a certain player or do you balance it vs the entire table ?
And if you do balance your c/c, c/r, C-Betting range against the regulars or decent players, will you also need to balance your lines on the turn/river or should it be played more straight-foward after the turn ? (Again, this is for NL10 SH) |
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GoTuNk   Chile. Sep 26 2010 12:25. Posts 2860 | | |
Stop leveling urself. You make money because people make the mistake of calling too much. Raise, vbet fishes. Raise, cbet, give up to further agression by other regs (they are mostly set mining). Just avoid bluffing altogheter =) |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 12:31. Posts 61 | | |
| On September 26 2010 11:25 GoTuNk wrote:
Stop leveling urself. You make money because people make the mistake of calling too much. Raise, vbet fishes. Raise, cbet, give up to further agression by other regs (they are mostly set mining). Just avoid bluffing altogheter =) |
Thank you for post.
It raises two questions...
1. If you don't balance your range or do anything fancy, what do you bet for value ? Top pair top kicker ? Set ? Second pair ? I though the point of balancing one's range is to do exactly what I've underlined from your quote, get them to make more mistakes and call down too munch so that you can comfortably get in top pair top kicker for example.
2. If you avoid bluffing altogether, how are you gonna turn a long-term profit with pocket pairs, low suited aces, suited connectors, etc ? Won't you mathematically lose on the long term ?
I'd really appreciate answers to these questions.
Thank you for your time |
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 26 2010 13:13. Posts 9634 | | |
dont bluff calling stations |
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GoTuNk   Chile. Sep 26 2010 13:29. Posts 2860 | | |
| On September 26 2010 11:31 UN4 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2010 11:25 GoTuNk wrote:
Stop leveling urself. You make money because people make the mistake of calling too much. Raise, vbet fishes. Raise, cbet, give up to further agression by other regs (they are mostly set mining). Just avoid bluffing altogheter =) |
Thank you for post.
It raises two questions...
1. If you don't balance your range or do anything fancy, what do you bet for value ? Top pair top kicker ? Set ? Second pair ? I though the point of balancing one's range is to do exactly what I've underlined from your quote, get them to make more mistakes and call down too munch so that you can comfortably get in top pair top kicker for example.
2. If you avoid bluffing altogether, how are you gonna turn a long-term profit with pocket pairs, low suited aces, suited connectors, etc ? Won't you mathematically lose on the long term ?
I'd really appreciate answers to these questions.
Thank you for your time
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1.- Truth is people call/raise/fold based on their cards mostly. We are obv betting TPTK for value, but you have to bet worse too. IE we raise JJ, flop comes Q32r, we bet flop get called, turn is a 4, I usually check here, and when they check river, say a T, we bet again, cause they will never fold any pair at this point. He'll show up sometimes with Qx but we make more money when he shows 55-66-77-88-99-Tx-A4, etc
2.- Cbet/2nd barrelling is our bluff, but we usually do it with equity; like we raise A3c, flop comes 2c8Jr , we cbet because villain will c/f a lot AND we fire turn when we pick up equity, say any 4/5/c, cause we picked up enough equity to require small fold equity to make the bet EV+. The Ace can be considered 4 outs aswell cause when we hit we are most of the time ahead of his range aswell. |
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| Last edit: 26/09/2010 13:31 |
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Mariuslol   Norway. Sep 26 2010 13:34. Posts 4742 | | |
The NERD!! Ohhh, the cruelty!!!
*dies* |
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UN4   Canada. Sep 26 2010 13:44. Posts 61 | | |
| On September 26 2010 12:29 GoTuNk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2010 11:31 UN4 wrote:
| On September 26 2010 11:25 GoTuNk wrote:
Stop leveling urself. You make money because people make the mistake of calling too much. Raise, vbet fishes. Raise, cbet, give up to further agression by other regs (they are mostly set mining). Just avoid bluffing altogheter =) |
Thank you for post.
It raises two questions...
1. If you don't balance your range or do anything fancy, what do you bet for value ? Top pair top kicker ? Set ? Second pair ? I though the point of balancing one's range is to do exactly what I've underlined from your quote, get them to make more mistakes and call down too munch so that you can comfortably get in top pair top kicker for example.
2. If you avoid bluffing altogether, how are you gonna turn a long-term profit with pocket pairs, low suited aces, suited connectors, etc ? Won't you mathematically lose on the long term ?
I'd really appreciate answers to these questions.
Thank you for your time
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1.- Truth is people call/raise/fold based on their cards mostly. We are obv betting TPTK for value, but you have to bet worse too. IE we raise JJ, flop comes Q32r, we bet flop get called, turn is a 4, I usually check here, and when they check river, say a T, we bet again, cause they will never fold any pair at this point. He'll show up sometimes with Qx but we make more money when he shows 55-66-77-88-99-Tx-A4, etc
2.- Cbet/2nd barrelling is our bluff, but we usually do it with equity; like we raise A3c, flop comes 2c8Jr , we cbet because villain will c/f a lot AND we fire turn when we pick up equity, say any 4/5/c, cause we picked up enough equity to require small fold equity to make the bet EV+. The Ace can be considered 4 outs aswell cause when we hit we are most of the time ahead of his range aswell. |
Thank you, I very munch appreciate the time and effort you took to answer my questions. |
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Bejamin1   Canada. Sep 26 2010 13:45. Posts 7042 | | |
I'm sorry but your not making the "correct read every time" if the play isn't working. You might be able to put your opponents on a specific hand range but you also have to know whether they're the type of player to call with that crap or fold. If they're a station and you're bluffing them you're just playing bad.
In fact you can't lose 14 buy-ins in one day of NL10 unless your playing horrible. You probably have a massive amount of leaks and just have trouble admitting it to yourself. |
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Sorry dude he Jason Bourned me. -Johnny Drama | |
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Poker Streams | |
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