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Looking at some EV math for spots where you overbet the pot. For some reason I find it much more difficult to internalize than spots where you aren't overbetting the pot.
I usually just bruteforce these by solving
1-FE((s + p)(e) - s(1-e)) + FE(p) = $EV
HU pot
Fold equity =FE
Effective remaining stacks =s
Our equity in the pot =e
Pot size =p
What is our required fold equity on an all-in to reach a break-even EV?
Then I just do that until I find a fold equity that gives me EV =~ 0
I don't seem to be getting the right answer lol
Thoughts? Better ways?
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| | Last edit: 14/04/2011 18:45 |
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edzwoo United States. Apr 14 2011 19:15. Posts 5911 | | |
This won't help you if you just wanted to do that math for fun and not for practical use.
If you bet pot as a bluff, villain needs to fold 50% to breakeven. If you bet double the pot as a bluff, villain needs to fold 66% to breakeven.
I dunno about you, but I usually limit my overbet bluffs to double pot, so everything else you just kinda eyeball it to be somewhere between 50 and 66%. |
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Oly United Kingdom. Apr 14 2011 19:16. Posts 3585 | | |
Didn't check what you have there, but from scratch:
The breakeven point is when amount we win = amount we lose
So: (if we win when called) + (if he folds) = (if we lose when called)
=> e(1-FE)(s+p) + pFE = s(1-FE)(1-e)
Solve that and you should be good. |
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| Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. | |
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NewbSaibot United States. Apr 14 2011 19:17. Posts 4946 | | |
what manner of sorcery is this? Just bluff b/c he cant have anything. |
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TheHuHu3 United States. Apr 14 2011 19:26. Posts 5544 | | | |
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Oly United Kingdom. Apr 14 2011 19:39. Posts 3585 | | |
Haha guys it's really useful to work this stuff out. Especially this FE equation - if you stick a few hands through it that you aren't sure about it can really open your eyes to certain points where you may not have realised how little fold equity you need for a semibluff to be profitable. Or indeed times when semibluffing is bad. Sometimes it's not obvious and even counterintuitive and that's another piece of edge you can use. |
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| Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. | |
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thanks oly, I still have and used the excel sheet we made but it was giving me some weird looking results so I want to double check it ^^ |
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Oly United Kingdom. Apr 14 2011 21:32. Posts 3585 | | |
cool, you can solve and substitute in what I did above, maybe something's gone wrong. gl... |
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| Researchers used brain scans to show that when straight men looked at pictures of women in bikinis, areas of the brain that normally light up in anticipation of using tools, like spanners and screwdrivers, were activated. | |
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egood United States. Apr 14 2011 23:30. Posts 1883 | | | |
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player999 Brasil. Apr 14 2011 23:40. Posts 7978 | | |
| | On April 14 2011 18:17 NewbSaibot wrote:
what manner of sorcery is this? Just bluff b/c fuck him. |
qft |
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| Browsing through your hand histories makes me wonder that you might not be aware these games are possibly play money. Have you ever tried to cash out? - Kapol | |
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nixxxbg Bulgaria. Apr 15 2011 04:17. Posts 436 | | |
FE = (e p - s + 2 e s)/(-p + e p - s + 2 e s)
Let G = e(2s + p). G represents our equity from all the money between the two players. Then:
FE = (G-s)/(G-s-p)
Then, you can calculate it quickly. Say effective stacks are 100bb.
G = e(200bb). Say our equity is 25% and the pot is 60bb.
FE = (50-70)/(50-70-60) = 25% |
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| | Last edit: 15/04/2011 04:29 |
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math are overated
click buttons and close ur eyes
it works for me
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