The villian raises CO/BU 12% over 321 hand sample. Ovb not reliable sample but i think he is doing this with worse hands than mine. on the turn he mintimebank bet, river he bet with normal timing. I have blockers AQ , so we only lose to AK KK here, how often do we need to be good here ?

83 / (83+67) *100%

what do u think his bluffing range here could be ?

On March 15 2013 09:12 Eluflop wrote: what do u think his bluffing range here could be ?

I dont see it and this is the main problem...

Depends on the opponent, but I'm tempted to call because

1) we are the top of our range here
2) if he is capable of bluffing, the A turn and missed draws make a river shove good in his shoes
3) we run into some big hands, but he should also have a few missed draws he might be tempted to bluff
4) he might make a thinnish value shove on the river with A4s or A8s, if he 3bets those

he didnt shove, he had ~50 behind. problem here is thin valuebet is not and OVERBET on the river. im pretty sure we are pretty much only bluffcatching on the river. i elected to call him this time

On March 15 2013 13:36 Eluflop wrote: he didnt shove, he had ~50 behind. problem here is thin valuebet is not and OVERBET on the river. im pretty sure we are pretty much only bluffcatching on the river. i elected to call him this time

Yeap our hand is a bluffcatcher in this spot, we beat nothing from his value range.

btw what he had ?

My mistake, oops.

Since it wasn't a river shove, I'm much more scared to call here. I rarely see people overbet the river without shoving, and when they do they usually have a strong hand.