i know it looks nitty as hell not to raise, but I feel like dryath is good enough to ship AsXx but im not real psyched to raise/call it off either

doesnt dryath post here as well?

yes - his last blogpost is still showing

minraise then, might get some crying calls..

On March 22 2013 17:18 Trolala wrote: minraise then, might get some crying calls..

thought of that, if he 3bs are you calling

u gotta raise big here to show strength and he might level himself into calling with AK+ because of his bluff inducing river bet size.
I think u are overthinking too much here.
The number of times he will push are much less imo than the times he will call.

On March 22 2013 17:20 Jamie217 wrote: Show nested quote + On March 22 2013 17:18 Trolala wrote: minraise then, might get some crying calls.. thought of that, if he 3bs are you calling

if you choose to minraise u have to call his 3bet because you sort of reinduce some bluffs/spews with your raise.

I would be shocked if he raised after that river bet size

On March 22 2013 17:22 Mardagg wrote: u gotta raise big here to show strength and he might level himself into calling with AK+ because of his bluff inducing river bet size. I think u are overthinking too much here. The number of times he will push are much less imo than the times he will call.

this one is a good option too

I definitely could be overthinking it but, no one who has advocated raising a normal size has said they would call of a 3b.
I also know that Dryath is better than just a 100nl grinder who wouldnt get creative. I agree vs your avg 100nl reg Id just raise/fold no problem.
I do think that he bet this size bc he has the As very often and rarely has a weaker flush. If that is the case Id expect him to bet/3b very often vs a raise as well.

Maybe a min raise is the best option because he will be unlikely to want to b/3b with air vs that and will just click call.

On March 22 2013 18:40 Jamie217 wrote:. I do think that he bet this size bc he has the As very often and rarely has a weaker flush. If that is the case Id expect him to bet/3b very often vs a raise as well.

i might be missing something but wouldn't this make it a clear raise-call?

yes I think so lol

if his As-containing +1 opening range is AsTx+ and As5s+ (so just throwing out 2 random combos of AsXs) he has 5 nut flush combos and 12 lone-As combos. let's say he checks back the 3 AsTx combos on river and vbets AJ+ and all the flushes.

not sure how often you mean when you say you expect him to bet/3b very often vs a raise, but i took it to mean >50%. so if he shoves 5/9 remaining unsuited combos, you already have 50% equity when you call his shove, meaning raise-call would be optimal in this scenario regardless of what sizing you choose, or if he only calls the raise like 1% of the time, or whatever.

all of my assumptions could be wrong, tbh i just wanted to make it so it came out to 50% eq. but you can tweak them based on what you know and if you think the true equity is lower, figure out the EV of what he calls raises with vs the times you commit yourself to calling shove with less equity with whatever raise size. too lazy for all that though

edit - know this is probably obvious ot you just wanted to check it myself

Definitely appreciate that ^^ This whole HH conversation is me kind of thinking outloud lol so Im glad ppl can gain something from it as well

does noone consider that he bets this size because he actually doesnt want jamie to fold 100% on river when he just bombs and jamie has AQ

On March 22 2013 21:13 bigredhoss wrote: if his As-containing +1 opening range is AsTx+ and As5s+ (so just throwing out 2 random combos of AsXs) he has 5 nut flush combos and 12 lone-As combos. let's say he checks back the 3 AsTx combos on river and vbets AJ+ and all the flushes. not sure how often you mean when you say you expect him to bet/3b very often vs a raise, but i took it to mean >50%. so if he shoves 5/9 remaining unsuited combos, you already have 50% equity when you call his shove, meaning raise-call would be optimal in this scenario regardless of what sizing you choose, or if he only calls the raise like 1% of the time, or whatever. all of my assumptions could be wrong, tbh i just wanted to make it so it came out to 50% eq. but you can tweak them based on what you know and if you think the true equity is lower, figure out the EV of what he calls raises with vs the times you commit yourself to calling shove with less equity with whatever raise size. too lazy for all that though edit - know this is probably obvious ot you just wanted to check it myself

he has probably every combo of Axs btw since he is raising MP not utg

yes excluding 2 Axs combos was the part i was most unhappy about. it's not my default assumption, more like a "reasonable" deviation i made (i think at least some regs fold a couple Axss combos there depending on table) to get it so that raise-calling is auto-correct since i didn't want to figure out more stuff. maybe defeats the purpose of analyzing the hand a bit, but like i said it at least quantifies some things that he can easily adjust to get more accurate ranges.

i wouldn't be surprised if any of my other "assumptions" were off either.

I'd raise same amount with bluffs 2.5Xish fold to a raise doesn't make sense to bet shove Jhi flush here. He could raise shove bluff if total sicko but doubt anyone would plan to bet small turn+ turn value range into bluff at these stakes