I tend to fold preflop in these spots where I am likely to face allin on flop and a deepstack behind me left to act. Not sure if even this good a hand isnt a fold pf, a little worse I would fold for sure.
On flop as played:
You have 31% vs AA!AAA.
If VYcanisMajor goes in with: 3%-20%: (88,55,33,85,83,53,ss,76: (9,8,5,4,3),64: (8,5,3,2),42: (8,5,3,A)), then he folds around 63% of the time.
If he goes in (the rest 37%), you have 31% in the side pot vs his range and 18% in the main pot (if gambllllllle has AA!AAA).
So ev is:
EV = 63%*(500*31%-118)+37%*((618*18%-118)+(612*31%-306)) = -$22 (compared to flop fold).
Not a huge margin, but it seems like a close fold. |