What could he be holding preflop-flop-turn?

1) If he only had a Flush Draw
=> Wouldn't have called 24¢ on the flop to raise all-in on the turn with the same FD. Rather, he would've called the turn... Why? Because considering your strong betting amounts, he probably suspects that you would never fold to his shove.
This means that he knows you always call a semi-bluff shove on the turn, i.e he knows he's losing.
River: If he hits his flush on the river, he could then extract value from you because you've shown aggression and strength.
I don't think he could be holding flush draws on this board.

2) If he had Top Pair
=> A10, K10, Q10 or J10 & T9 (maybe), your bet size would've made him fold on the turn (I suppose). On the other side, he could call a small percentage of the time if you two have history together and have shown looser tendencies. But in general, no.
Which means that I don't really think he could have shoved with Top Pair..

3) Two Pair
=>Improbable. His possible holding is T7s and maybe 76

4) Overpair (JJ,QQ,KK,AA) Definitely hands he could be slowplaying... BUT chances are he would've 3Bet you preflop and/or raise the flop to build the pot.

5) Nut(s): 89s, 77, TT. Definitely possible calling hands. Since you were strong both Pre-flop and flop, calling with 77, TT to trap and build pot later (knowing you're strong, since you bet 90% the pot) is definitely probable. And calling with 89 to draw his straight, which would have turned, too.

So basically what you're up against is the nuts/2nd and 3rd nutz: 89s, 77, TT.


*Note that I had to assume villain understands poker and can read bet sizes and has understanding of position; this makes sense because he's not a shortstacker (below 100bb), and has shown some winnings.

If he was a total fish, however, I think your call on the turn was perfectly +EV.



Please correct me if my reasoning is wrong. It took me a few minutes to come up with this and would like to know your perspectives on the hand, too.

Nothing wrong with your analysis.

JJ+ would've been 3bet pre-flop.
It's pretty obvious that villian has 77, TT or 89s on the turn (If we assume that he's not a total fish).

I've seen full stackers trying to lure me into the pot, so AT would've a possibility as well.
But was good to fold and assume that villian has 77, TT or 89s on the turn.

Playing 12 tables at the moment, I should play 4-6 instead.

Thanks for your post.