turn seems like a call, but what do you do on a non-heart river if he jams?

On June 12 2014 12:19 GoTuNk wrote: turn seems like a call, but what do you do on a non-heart river if he jams?

fold river if he jams obv
you will have a bunch of flushes in your range to call river, or full houses if river pairs

turn is a call why?

it'll be tough to show profit preflop with this hand
assuming he raises 14% ish and combined squeeze from blinds is 15% (say 8% each minus overlap)

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0%3D-.15*2.5%2B.85%28-2.5%2B6.5*R*.3477%29
looks the same if we add to that that bb will cold call say 20% of the time I dunno with dis?
77-55, ATs-A7s, KJs-K9s, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QJo
giving you some 27% equity

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=...*.3477%29%2B.20%28-2.5%2B8*R*.2739%29

you need to realize 130% equity+ either way, with the single raised pot R being 3x+more important than 3 way pot. Which means you need to bluff him quite a bit, meh, seems like too much trouble.


3bet it's fine I guess altho I prefer KQ AJ IP

We call the turn because our hand is pretty damn good considering that his range will include some Ah and Kh, some sets and 2 pairs and the other 65. This is opponent specific of course, some players will bet this turn with 100% of their flop range, some will never bluff the turn. But against your "average" opponent, a big turn bet here doesn't necessarily mean he has us beat. On the river we have to play poker, think about his turn betting range, what he thinks of our turn calling range, general tendencies, history, etc.

Practically speaking, drone666 is correct, a lot players at low stakes are incapable of bluffing the river, even less are capable of bluff jamming, and the ones that are capable, either move up stakes because they are smart, or they hemorrhage money because they do it at incorrect spots and are imbalanced/predictable and either go broke trying or stop bluffing altogether.

Edit: I didn't see that he was a short stack, which makes me less inclined to fold.

Turn I guess can be both don't see a big difference - we can rly only shove, protecting our hand+getting value from Xh hands but losing value from random stuff that'll fold but prolly will put money in on the river

I'm not folding non heart river's here vs a midstack random fish Drone though?
And I assume he is one without reads just based on stack
And he'll have $21.50 left

turn is a call, river can be dif.

betting frequencies help a ton here.

many singlepairs/oesds etc turned bluff, pair with fd etc, hes not only on a flush here ever.

i call and re-evalatue.

im no 6max expert but for me its pretty clear, I mean, its a single raised pot, 4 way on the flop, someone will have a flushdraw often and flushdraw isnt folding the flop, so when the flush pops turn, villain pots, repping the flush, and you guys think about calling turn + calling a blank river if he shoves ?? wtf

for me is so random to assume he has a random bluff just because he is a fish, so you think he's calling flop with a random hand and turning whatever hand he has into a bluff repping the flush on the turn and will follow on the river ?? even if it was nl2 I can fold the turn ( because you have no outs to improve vs a flush ) and if im not folding turn I will fold river 99% of the time he shoves the river without further reads

from GTO perspective its a fold, because you will have better hands to call river, you will have flushes in your range a lot when you bet this flop 4 way and call a potsize turn lead, you will also have sets/2 pairs that call turn to try to win a showdown when he checks river or valueshove when you river a full house

from exploitative perspective is also fold because this is not a spot where I expect people to be randomly bluffing enough