Villain is 18/12/0 in 51 hands, 3.5 aggression factor.

Decided to call pre OOP and set-mine and got there. Flop and turn seem okay but river I decided to bet/fold not sure if it is the best line to go about this club river card. Didn't think check/call is a better option. What would you do?

Villain tanked for 20 secs and folded. Seems like he was afraid of that river card as well?

maybe
his line looks alot like he has a pair of kings and realized at the river that he is beat almost 100% of the time and folds but who knows

On July 08 2014 08:04 punix wrote: maybe his line looks alot like he has a pair of kings and realized at the river that he is beat almost 100% of the time and folds but who knows

You think people with 2 clubs in hand will play like this on the flop and on the turn? I was pretty scared by the time the river card came because I was thinking he could have 2 clubs with him.

it's more your third barrel i think

he has lots of pairs and 2 pairs, some with the ace of clubs (which he would also tank thinking about bluff raising you, since your bet size went down he is thinking about you betting for value vs being weak maybe), some as low as like tens or jacks that he fucked up and got in this spot with thinking your flop checkraise was weak. so he tanks just accepting that if he wasn't behind earlier, he's dead by now. kills your action i guess, you could checkraise flop with 87 98 JT of clubs right? he wouldn't have played JT like this i know

every street looks good/standard.

he has 12%pfr over 55 hands, most likely it will end up being slightly higher over a bigger sample, but we can stick with 12% for now as a conservative estimate to decide whether we have the best hand on river, and what action we should take.

so give him a range of something like: AA/KK/QQ, AK, AQ, KQ, JTs, Axcc, QJdd, maybe T9cc, and maybe an occasional non-believing KJs.

then you want to take into account that some of these hands are less likely to slowplay to the river. because he has position, it's feasible that he would slowplay a lot of strong hands. but on the flop, for example, i would probably still discount one of the oversets (we'll use QQ). on the turn, maybe discount half of his JTs combos. not that he couldn't be flatting JT on the turn, but people tend to start shoveling the money in when they have the nuts on a wet board with deepish stacks.

so on the river give him like AA/KK, AK, AQ, KQ, JTs(half), QJdd, T9cc, most nut flushes, and maybe 1 combo of KJs. i don't have pokerstove on my comp atm but you should have the best hand well over half of the time (but you should check to verify). you can also see from this range that he's unlikely to have anything he's turning into a bluff, aside from QJdd and KJs, if he gets there with it. this means that betting the river is superior to check-calling. your betsizing is good, because you want to target the weaker part of his range - betting more might get folds from hands like KQ.

the ranges i used are also probably on the conservative (tight) side, and some of the assumptions might be debatable, but the point is more about the logic you should use for arriving at a decision.