Horrible call on the turn.

Yeah here's an example of where you should really be doing the maths.

To correctly call all in here, we need (3.32/9)x100 %

this works out to roughly 37%

even if we are vs 8x, we have 34%, so we are still not getting the correct odds, and the most likely option is that we are vs kx in which case we have 18%. its also not impossible for him to have 88/44 in this spot in which case we have 0%. We could also be against ax/kx spades where we are very slim. I dont have equilab on me right now so can't work out the exact equity we have versus the range, but even doing the slightest piece of maths tells you that this should be a fold, and that there aren't enough 56 spades hands in his range to make this a call.

I also don't like the flop lead. Although you have BDFD at this limit people will very rarely fold and we're better of c/f flop 3 way but that's just my opinion

as played pre and flop, shove turn

this is a spot where i merge my value hands and semibluffs due to awkward SPR

troll too obvious gnarly

I think I'm off on the math by less than 10%. I have a 2-1 to hit an out, and I'm getting around 1.8-1 for pot odds, which I assumed was closer to 2-1 when I called. I put him on pair 8 and that he was trying to chase away any possible flush draws. if he had a set, he wouldn't shove. if he had a k, he wouldn't shove. he'd only shove because he's either trying to get me to fold my K, or he thinks im bluffing. this is why i gave myself the 15 outs. (6 for pair and 9 for flush) his range is A8, 87, with maybe 22-77(exclude the 44), with no draw for him. for his range, he is 2-1 on me, but given the price, I think it's only a slight error here.

On July 09 2014 11:20 Gnarly wrote: I think I'm off on the math by less than 10%. I have a 2-1 to hit an out, and I'm getting around 1.8-1 for pot odds, which I assumed was closer to 2-1 when I called. I put him on pair 8 and that he was trying to chase away any possible flush draws. if he had a set, he wouldn't shove. if he had a k, he wouldn't shove. he'd only shove because he's either trying to get me to fold my K, or he thinks im bluffing. this is why i gave myself the 15 outs. (6 for pair and 9 for flush) his range is A8, 87, with maybe 22-77(exclude the 44), with no draw for him. for his range, he is 2-1 on me, but given the price, I think it's only a slight error here.

this is wrong, its also a big error imo, I would classify an error which loses a few hundred hands worth of ev as a big error.

what's wrong? that i have the outs that I knew I had? or that I can deduce his range? lol

Omg these stupidfucks always suck out vs you....

what really happened was that i saw his bet size and added that to the pot, rather than what the pot would actually be if I called, so in my mind, i was making a break even call. When I do the math for that call, it comes out 50/50.

Hit odds = 32.61 % about 2.1 to 1
Call odds = 33.71 % about 2.0 to 1
It looks 50/50 ish

Hit odds = 32.61 % about 2.1 to 1
Call odds = 36.89 % about 1.7 to 1
It looks BAD ($ 1.18)

is what it really was.

8 outs, hit odds 32% on the turn - seems legit
majority of the time its actually between 6-8 outs

--- Nuked ---