So I was using Table Tamer to play poker with my xbox 360 controller. And I have a predefined 60% pot bet on the turn and it bugged out and put $0.05..

Turned out to be one of the best misclicks ever lol.

Now that I saw the hole cards, I thought villain had a lower flush. 55 is close but also makes villain a whale for not raising flop.

Nothing wrong with villain not raising that flop

If he perceives you as competent, it would scream strength. Would kq check raise? Quite possibly, but then he folds out shit that might possibly keep on barelling. Wouldn't ak 3bet pre? Would he really defend a 3x open w/ k7, k5, 75? Is he aggressive enough to check-raise draws? If villains don't have a decent aggro factor, it's more than likely they have monsters when they go check raising. That's one of the benefits of playing an aggro game that will c/r and get it in with draws - it makes them harder to read.. and forces you into more difficult spots.

His horribad play was on the turn, clearly. I also don't like your bet on the turn - no king is folding, and decent players with strong hands typically check-raise enough to make it horribly unprofitable to call.

edit - at work. hope that made sense

back from work. what am I talking about, I bet the hell out of it at times there too. All depends I guess

double post

On September 08 2014 22:45 devon06atX wrote: If he perceives you as competent, it would scream strength. Would kq check raise? Quite possibly, but then he folds out shit that might possibly keep on barelling. Wouldn't ak 3bet pre? Would he really defend a 3x open w/ k7, k5, 75? Is he aggressive enough to check-raise draws? If villains don't have a decent aggro factor, it's more than likely they have monsters when they go check raising. That's one of the benefits of playing an aggro game that will c/r and get it in with draws - it makes them harder to read.. and forces you into more difficult spots. His horribad play was on the turn, clearly. I also don't like your bet on the turn - no king is folding, and decent players with strong hands typically check-raise enough to make it horribly unprofitable to call. edit - at work. hope that made sense

Yeah it does make sense. I think checking back turn is definitely better here.

The way I was seeing is that, I am playing on Bovada (anonymous) Zone (no HUDs can help you). I assumed everyone are loose passive. But he had 120bb preflop, which could mean that he was somewhat competent. I think K7 K5 is totally possible, but I feel like if he hit a set he would c/r because if I hit top pair I still have some outs vs him (LOL 2 outs)? idk I personally always c/r at spots like this for some reason (that's why I am fish, and in fact I don't win as much as I should be by simply flatting vs some regs. Trying to minimize thought process as a noob I think).

I decided to 2nd barrel on the turn so that he would fold out some one pair hands (now that you said he would never fold Kx, I think I was trying to make him fold top pair, which would almost never work). Also I was thinking, if turn bet wouldn't make him fold, hitting the heart on the river will make me win more (some implied odds?).

Now that I look at the hand, I think I normally do check back on turn. Not sure why I 2nd barrel here anymore.. I think this is one of my leaks too - I don't always have a set strategy, I would play the same hand randomly.. I mean it is kinda GTO but I don't know shit about that so I think I am just fish doing fishy things, which I hate to do. Thanks for all the advice man!

if he raises pot on turn, you have a tough time calling.

2nd barell is fine. He defended bb he should have plenty if hands that peel and fold to the 2nd barell. If u are playing someone 'reggish' who always raises nut hands by the turn you can also have a very profitable 3 barell.

Checking back turn is ok because you have some showdown value but not a ton IMO considering how dry the flop he check called is. The stronger he is the better checking turn becomes obviously but sucks to not barell and muck to 66 when u brick

Uh, a lot of people will call the turn with 66 here.

The real reason not to double barrel this specific turn card is that most of what you're trying to get to fold either improved or picked up additional outs. Almost everything other than TT is some sort of pair plus gut shot combo. Even though calling with that sort of thing is pretty bad, people frequently do. That's why the turn being the 2h would be better. Creates a subset of naked 2nd pair or worse. If you were to barrel the 9h, you'd automatically have to 3 barrel all blanks for this very reason. Which would be terrible, just from a combinatorics view.

You're not 2 barreling specifically to get x to fold or anything. It's getting them to fold weak hand that have gkod equity against you, in conjunction with your decent equity vs a king, which is slightly offset by the fact that the rivers you lose vs a king(since you check) are significantly smaller than the one you won ( where you hit and bed). It's pretty much the best starting point when you think about range balancing.

The best barreling cards are the Qh and Jh. Not only has the board gotten significantly worse for the under pairs, and you've picked up additional but outs, but it makes them having a king anywhere from 9-12.5% less likely.

Do you see why?

I'm typing on my phone so please forgive the spelling

On September 09 2014 10:07 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: The best barreling cards are the Qh and Jh. Not only has the board gotten significantly worse for the under pairs, and you've picked up additional but outs, but it makes them having a king anywhere from 9-12.5% less likely. Do you see why?

Is it because it cuts down his KJ KQ combos?

villain is a whale because of turn and river action not because he didn't raise flop

On September 09 2014 11:09 lhr0909 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 09 2014 10:07 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: The best barreling cards are the Qh and Jh. Not only has the board gotten significantly worse for the under pairs, and you've picked up additional but outs, but it makes them having a king anywhere from 9-12.5% less likely. Do you see why? Is it because it cuts down his KJ KQ combos?

Yeah, it cuts the combination of the relevant king from 12 to 9. Depending on what range of kings you give them, it goes from 9%(KT-KQ)) to 12.5% (KQ, KJ) of the number of kings they can have. so essentially it goes from between 24 to 21 combinations and 36 to 33. This might not seem terribly significant, but especially when you consider all the hands you're trying to get a fold from are from very small groups of hands combinations wise. What I mean is, the types of hands that the majority of players play that will hit the middle cards, or be a pocket pair of similar strength, are typically suited connectors, of which there are only 4 combinations of each of them. There are 3 combinations when they make a pair. Pocket pairs only have 6 combinations. So they range of hands that you're attempting to make fold is only made up of some 30ish hands, give or take depending on what range that specific player has.

So when you have 55 total hands, 24 of which called the flop and you expect to call the turn and 30 that call the flop and you expect to fold the turn, and now because of card cancellation that 24 lowers to 21, it starts to look significant. 21/52 is much prettier than 24/55, I think. It does mean that now you get raised on the turn slightly more often, as they have more combinations of 2 pair, but there's only 4 combos of KQ or KJ that make 2pair

The cards on the board always effects what they can have in their hand from a combinations perspective. Always keep that in mind.

I feel like I reveal too much, lol

On September 09 2014 12:44 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: I feel like I reveal too much, lol

Man, this is good stuff. Thanks for this! I really appreciate the detailed feedback. This is definitely something I lack is that I only "eyeball" things and I still don't have a great habit of reviewing hands after a session (Bovada only has HHs 24 hrs later) and do these kinds of detailed analysis myself. I guess I don't need it at 5/10NL but it is helpful to play with this level of thinking vaguely in my head, until I am mechanically solid and just able to think it through in a snap second.