Your options are basically to 3 barrel or to ch/decide.
3 barrel would depend largely on his likelihood to call with QJ/JT/weak flush draws on the turn. It becomes even more lucrative if he is the type of player who will call KJ and fold to a river bet(gain this information by a previous call on a similar board with a top pair hand that doesn't beat any value hands, or a general display of not understanding marginal hand strengths). You can also infer the QJ/JT read if he calls something like AQ or AT on the turn.
Essentially, 2 barrelling is a poor play because your immediate fold equity is likely fairly low as their range is made up of a few hands we crush(worse draws), and a number of hands that have showdown value and redraws, while also blocking our outs(KJ, QJ, JT are all included in this, though I would divide these into 2 subsets of SDV+RD,{CallBlankRiver: KJ}, {FoldBlankRiver: QJ, JT}, AQ and AT could potentially be included in the 2nd subset. The reality of this portion of the range is they're all of virtually the same strength, since they all beat my bluffs and none of my value hands..though I suppose KJ can in rare cases beat a K9s or split with KJ. That's kind of irrelevant to our analysis, but still worth knowing. The last subset of hands are hands that shove on you because they slowplayed the flop or made a straight on the turn.
Personally, readless, I prefer barrelling as it will provide me with reads that allow me to better play a wide range of hands in the future. I'll start checking once their play leads me to believe that that is the best option. check folding isn't necessarily oput of the question either if they bet large enough, since getting paid when you hit is rather difficult and your equity isn't great.
C/ring is obviously an option in some dynamics, but lets not get into that. i don't want to encourage suicide. |