well fuck me
value combos only 22 and one 88 oO
I beat backdoor flush draws likr T9hh I guess? TJ got there which should be a lot more inclined to raise turn than KJ cause of the sd value .

I have all AA QQ 22 here that I call before this I guess?

Expect this guy to 3bet AQ most of the time so A8 is a better call than AQ in this spot actually because of the blocker to 88. if A8 plays this way it'll be close I guess between A8 AQ AQ prolly higher up in the call bracket.

people rarely bluff like this especially tags at25, unless they are tilted. He didn't take much time either on raising/shoving. Bu it's BvB afterall and he doesnt like folding.


I rly don't know, calling or folding based on mood

Guess it depends if hands like 54hh is in his range. I would say if he has a bluffing range at all, you have to call. Some players aren't capable of overpotting as a bluff and those players you gotta fold to. Based on the stats you posted, I couldn't tell.

Why not bet the river? As played I dunno but I think JT calls turn more than raise so I wouldnt discount it too much tbh.

^why would he donk bet river?
this specific river seems makes it an easier fold imo
this seems a lot like J10 or 22, river is better for your range and still he overbet jams
and yes nl10 reg tags don't do this kind of bluff without tilt

shit I completely misread the hand didnt see the turn raise, sry ^^

the stats suggest him not having AQ but we cannot eliminate that hand completely from his range...your sample size is not conclusive. I'd discard about 1/2 the combos of AQ and keep the other 1/2 in... that said i would prob muck this vs most opponents on the river. his line is repping an insanely strong range. I wouldn't expect many microstakes players to be firing off stacks in this manner.

somewhat OT but i mostly check this flop with this hands... obv deppends on how you play the rest of ur range etc, just an idea to think about

as played?? proly call.
fckload of stats but no wwsf? the most useful stat ever

*depends

On December 06 2014 10:04 LemOn[5thF] wrote: well fuck me value combos only 22 and one 88 oO I beat backdoor flush draws likr T9hh I guess? TJ got there which should be a lot more inclined to raise turn than KJ cause of the sd value . I have all AA QQ 22 here that I call before this I guess? Expect this guy to 3bet AQ most of the time so A8 is a better call than AQ in this spot actually because of the blocker to 88. if A8 plays this way it'll be close I guess between A8 AQ AQ prolly higher up in the call bracket. people rarely bluff like this especially tags at25, unless they are tilted. He didn't take much time either on raising/shoving. Bu it's BvB afterall and he doesnt like folding. I rly don't know, calling or folding based on mood

lollll why r u playing 25nl when u can analyse a hand like that

On December 06 2014 13:42 EvilSky wrote: Why not bet the river? As played I dunno but I think JT calls turn more than raise so I wouldnt discount it too much tbh.

If he s any good he ll be raising JThh at least.
Also its not only 22 and 88 you should consider, he could potentially have AQ and A2s as well, really shitty spot, its probably a fold, but dont think i can do it

His bluff aren't many, JThh 9Thh Qxhh ( don't think he raises Axhh as it makes no sense ) he could randomly bluff some other JT combo and a flush draw w some pair, your value hands are indeed way much more than his, thats why I think you can fold this hand in particular spot

I say its pretty much 22 or a combo heart draw on the turn. No way he has AQ, he might have A2.

Anyway, too many combinations of draws compared to the 22. His turn raise is really small. A small turn raise makes me lean towards him having a drawing hand, because he wouldn't want to give you good odds if he had a set. I just ship the turn and hope to get EV from his range being more draw heavy. He could have a lot more hearts than just JT

k2 of hearts?

Interesting hand, thanks for posting. I will argue for a call. My thoughts:

Looks a lot like JTs, unless he would 3-bet that pre. I think he would definitely raise with JThh on turn, and maybe all JT combos he plays on turn since he turned a double-gutter. I would have thought he could have folded 88 on the flop, it's pretty trash flop for 88. But maybe he would peel one

You think he could have KQhh here that he is river jamming for value? Or possibly K2hh?
Would he turn KJhh or KThh into bluffs?


I think his bluffing range is extremely small, really only limited to:

34hh, 35hh, 45hh, and possibly KJhh and KThh combos. = 5 bluffing combos

I think his value range you are ahead of is A2, KQhh and K2hh for value. = 8 combos

Value range you are behind: 22, 88, JTs = 8 combos

You chop with his 4 A8 combos.

So based on that, it's actually an easy call. I was first leaning towards folding, but forgot about his combos of A2. If you are pretty sure he would have just raised with A2 on the flop, I think the decision is close, but should still be a call.

On December 07 2014 12:40 HungarianGOD wrote: I think his value range you are ahead of is A2, KQhh and K2hh for value. = 8 combos

this is really optimistic