I really don't like this fold unless you had a pretty big read. His barrelling range is enormous on that turn and then he's going to pop the king river a huge amount of the time.

i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at.

On December 11 2014 15:15 !MeaL! wrote: i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at.

No offense bro but please do everyone here a favor. Rather than post advice on hands you should be posting questions. You are clearly a new player still learning the basics. The advice you gave above was actually quite bad and could be detrimental to other players who read these HH to improve because they don't know you and may think you are more qualified to give advice than you are.


As to the hand. An LP/blind resteal war goes into a triple barrel. Villain should be plenty wide enough for you to be calling this river. You are also at the higher end of your range. Maybe even the top of your range other than QK depending on whether you are raising 2p+ on the flop or turn.

yeah,this is a call vs most villains

On December 11 2014 16:37 traxamillion wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2014 15:15 !MeaL! wrote: i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at. No offense bro but please do everyone here a favor. Rather than post advice on hands you should be posting questions. You are clearly a new player still learning the basics. The advice you gave above was actually quite bad and could be detrimental to other players who read these HH to improve because they don't know you and may think you are more qualified to give advice than you are. As to the hand. An LP/blind resteal war goes into a triple barrel. Villain should be plenty wide enough for you to be calling this river. You are also at the higher end of your range. Maybe even the top of your range other than QK depending on whether you are raising 2p+ on the flop or turn.

I think both of you are right in a way, Meal is trying to explain this from the commitment standpoint, and your analysis are more based on ranges. combining these two thoughts we can say that folding is the worst option, right?

call vs most vilains? lol

do you guys play nL100 - nl200 in 2014?

This is a fold vs about 80% of regs
and a turbo snap vs the other 20%

Most regs nowadays are huge droolers who bluff once per 197 orbits and are more than happy to snap check back anything that should bet.

So its vilain dependant, easiest fold ever or fastest call ever and we cant tell you which to do.


all the players except the fish on this table seem to be exactly the same type of players, lol, oh good ole 2014 poker

ohh yea i was gonna post on that;hilarious. 5regs with exactly the same pfr and pretty much same 3bet and the rest.


i meant bad advice when he said to raise turn to 'see where you are' which is never appropriate and frankly noob thought process

It's bad advice to say you can't fold river because you called the turn. Board texture changes and you have to focus on his ranges and how they interact with the board as it changes. This may not be the case in this spot, it's hard to say, but there are many spots where people's bluffing ranges are heavily centered around flush and straight draws and when both get there on the river and they bet, obviously your top pair isn't looking so hot anymore.

Anyway I'm going to chuck this in to crEV and see what it comes out with. As always, it would help to know about his preflop ranges and how he plays different portions of those ranges postflop, but let's try to make some generic assumptions. Given that effective stacks are 200bb and villain is oop, conventional wisdom suggests he should be 3betting much less than if the effective stacks were 100bb as bloating pots oop deep sucks as even the strongest parts of his preflop range are going to hate life on a lot of runouts when facing aggression. Another point is that villain is in the BB so he's closing the action and getting great pot odds to call so he's less incentivised to 3bet than if he were in the SB for example. At 100bb stack depths a lot of regs in these positions are 3betting something like 8-18% with most players being somewhere around 13-15% in my experience, but as we're assuming he's going to 3bet less given stack sizes I've assigned him a range of 10%. The "value" portion I've assigned him is TT+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs which makes up half the combinations of this range and the other half is some speculative suited connectors, gappers and suited aces (let's say 54s-T9s, A2-A5s, 64s-J9s) which makes up 10.11% of hands total.

On the flop I gave him a cbetting range of >= top pair, 6x and 5x for protection from random stuff that just folds the flop, any backdoor flush draw, flopped flush draws and a gutshot+ which gave him a cbetting range of 68.2%. This has him checking a super weak range with JJ being the best hand, so it's not a very good checking range, but realistically I think a lot of people would play like this. Some people may cbet 100% also, and some others have very weak cbetting ranges and strong checking ranges, but we have 0 reads on the opponent and you can make changes to the crEV model yourself if you want as I will attach a link at the end.

We call and on the turn I gave him a betting range of >= top pair, flush draws and OESD only, which makes for a betting range of 61.7% of his flop cbetting range, and already villain has 2/3rds of his betting range at top pair or better on the turn. Despite betting 68.2% on the flop and 61.7% on the turn.

On the river, if villain bets 100% of his turn betting range we have to call and show a profit of 22.17bb, however he's obviously not going to bet 100%. So I had him betting 2pair + for value (Had him checking AQ, AA here) which is 43.2% of his range. In this model, if villain bluffs 100% of his non paired hands on the river to give him an overall river betting frequency of 59.5% of the time we're losing 1.12bb on our river call. And this doesn't have him betting aces for value, in which case if he does so then you're further fucked.

Here is the crEV file: http://www.4shared.com/file/FI_lHbakba/psynrg850_AhQc_on_Qh6h5c4sKc.html

Play with as you wish, obviously a lot of assumptions have been made which include a 3betting range which may be well off for villain, but it's one in which he has a lot of draws to barrel with and yet still can make our river call bad betting all the traditional draws on the flop and turn and even 100% of the non paired ones on the river as a bluff. I've assumed that he's betting with hands better than ours with 100% frequency at all points except the AA check on the river, which is not realistic as many players will check stronger hands on the flop or turn at least some % of the time to induce bluffs/protect their checking ranges etc and some may value bet AA on the river. But it's a model which you can change those assumptions on yourselves and make your own conclusions about.

I also ran this hand in GTORB with both turn and river solutions enabled. I gave villain the exact same preflop range, but you can't start from the flop so I assumed he cbet 100% of his range on the flop and I gave us a fairly reasonable preflop and flop calling range (Omitted KK and AA which I assume are the only value combos we're 4betting preflop here 200bb deep, although I could be wrong on that) and assumed all the hands we got to the turn with we did so by calling, i.e. we had no flop raising range, which again isn't a good assumption, but we can't do much better than that. So anyway, GTORB says we're calling 100% of the time with all combinations of AQ and AQs on the turn against a bet and on a Kc river we're calling 49% of the time, although supposedly 100% of the time with AhQx combinations and like 22% with all other combinations of AQ, which I don't really understand as I would have thought having the Ah blocks some nut flush draws that could bluff, but anyway that's what GTORB says given the preflop and flop ranges I gave it, although this is of course assuming villain cbets 100% of that 3betting range on the flop which is very unrealistic and that we have 0% flop raising range. Here's a link to the GTORB sim I ran: http://gtorangebuilder.com/#share_sce...de60e40b16093dec02ad93c1767/root_v=23

is that wcgrider's program?

great analysis btw midian thanks

Maybe having the Ace of hearts blocks his KAhh combo which is more important than allowing him AhXh bluffs?

On December 11 2014 16:37 traxamillion wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2014 15:15 !MeaL! wrote: i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at. No offense bro but please do everyone here a favor. Rather than post advice on hands you should be posting questions. You are clearly a new player still learning the basics. The advice you gave above was actually quite bad and could be detrimental to other players who read these HH to improve because they don't know you and may think you are more qualified to give advice than you are. As to the hand. An LP/blind resteal war goes into a triple barrel. Villain should be plenty wide enough for you to be calling this river. You are also at the higher end of your range. Maybe even the top of your range other than QK depending on whether you are raising 2p+ on the flop or turn.

New player? I ain't even going to answer that cause clearly you don't know me. I post what I see it can be debatable just cause you see it another way doesn't say your giving the right advice either. There many ways a hand can be seen and there no 100% way to follow through.

On December 12 2014 16:43 !MeaL! wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2014 16:37 traxamillion wrote:   On December 11 2014 15:15 !MeaL! wrote: i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at. No offense bro but please do everyone here a favor. Rather than post advice on hands you should be posting questions. You are clearly a new player still learning the basics. The advice you gave above was actually quite bad and could be detrimental to other players who read these HH to improve because they don't know you and may think you are more qualified to give advice than you are. As to the hand. An LP/blind resteal war goes into a triple barrel. Villain should be plenty wide enough for you to be calling this river. You are also at the higher end of your range. Maybe even the top of your range other than QK depending on whether you are raising 2p+ on the flop or turn. New player? I ain't even going to answer that cause clearly you don't know me. I post what I see it can be debatable just cause you see it another way doesn't say your giving the right advice either. There many ways a hand can be seen and there no 100% way to follow through.

trax is right though, raising turn for info here is just bad.

Alright, it could I just gave an option. We are discussing a hand aren't we? But the hand is very player dependable.

what i'm saying is you should never raise this turn (or in general) solely "for information. You should make a raise if it is the most valuable play out of raise/call/fold for either value or as a bluff (but never just for info).

that is not debatable that is fundamental poker theory

but welcome back meal I didnt recognize you at first bro but I do remember you now. You were good, I know you know how to play. You played higher than I did at the time I believe I last saw you, at least 100nl or higher. no disrespect intended

On December 11 2014 21:24 lhr0909 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 11 2014 16:37 traxamillion wrote:   On December 11 2014 15:15 !MeaL! wrote: i think river hits he's KQ yeah but you cant just fold and say he has KQ because he bets. He will best all hand he betted before to try and get you to fold something that beats him. I would call 100% river if you called turn KQ is just a cooler imo. If you are fold to a river K you might has well fold turn. Also i believe in some cases a raise on turn is good to find out where you at. No offense bro but please do everyone here a favor. Rather than post advice on hands you should be posting questions. You are clearly a new player still learning the basics. The advice you gave above was actually quite bad and could be detrimental to other players who read these HH to improve because they don't know you and may think you are more qualified to give advice than you are. As to the hand. An LP/blind resteal war goes into a triple barrel. Villain should be plenty wide enough for you to be calling this river. You are also at the higher end of your range. Maybe even the top of your range other than QK depending on whether you are raising 2p+ on the flop or turn. I think both of you are right in a way, Meal is trying to explain this from the commitment standpoint, and your analysis are more based on ranges. combining these two thoughts we can say that folding is the worst option, right?

I seriously doubt people 3 barrel 100% turn range just because it's a scarecard here? Oo

By that logic you could call every bluff catcher you have here.