checking gives me a free card but it also gets rid of any fold equity I may have had, which means that I have to play the hand face up and shove or fold the river, which also means that if he sees that id obviously hit something (like the flush) he could actually fold when I hit too. Im not really sure what the best way to play draws is in 3bet pots or general, but I know that fold equity is important. But is it worth getting it in before hitting on the turn? I dont know, is there a definitive answer to that question or is it situational?
If I assume has a turn range of TT+, AJ I have 35% equity when I shove. If I also assume that the weakest parts of his range manage to find folds if I shove and he folds AJ and QQ, thats 52% of his range that continues.
When I shove the turn, I win roughly 30% of his stack 50% of the time, so I win 15bb avg. If he calls, I win his stack 35% and he wins mine 65% so I lose 30% of a stack on avg, 30bb. The net result is I lose 15bb each time I make that play.
If I check back the turn, I assume I dont bluff missed rivers which would defeat the purpose of checking back, and that he calls with the same range that wouldve called the turn shove. That means 65% of the time I lose 30bb when I dont hit and check/fold, which is avg 20bb lost. Then 35% of the time when I do it I win 100bb half of the time, and 30bb half the time, so avg 65bb won when I hit, x35% = 23bb. The net result is I win 3bb each time I make that play.
Obviously my assumptions could be off, but I think ive found that checking back and playing the draw more face up is the superior play. I might also be able to apply this in a general sense to the way I play draws in other situations too. |