i like the river bet, now fold (unless u wanna call for info ;p)

prob some kind of boat or quads, though his stats do suggest he's not opening those. still, it's only 30 hands.

we're not gonna be super exploitable since we'll prob have 66, 44, maybe sets depending on how often we raise flop

On January 02 2015 00:50 fira wrote: i like the river bet, now fold (unless u wanna call for info ;p) prob some kind of boat or quads, though his stats do suggest he's not opening those. still, it's only 30 hands. we're not gonna be super exploitable since we'll prob have 66, 44, maybe sets depending on how often we raise flop

After watching the hand I'm not sure the river bet is good. What do I get value from?

would not bet, give him chance to bluff instead

On January 02 2015 09:18 GoTuNk wrote: Show nested quote + On January 02 2015 00:50 fira wrote: i like the river bet, now fold (unless u wanna call for info ;p) prob some kind of boat or quads, though his stats do suggest he's not opening those. still, it's only 30 hands. we're not gonna be super exploitable since we'll prob have 66, 44, maybe sets depending on how often we raise flop After watching the hand I'm not sure the river bet is good. What do I get value from?

i would be betting as a bluff to get him to possibly fold higher overpairs, cause he seems capped whereas we aren't. i guess our hand may be too strong to turn into bluff, but i think a lot of players with his stats would mistakenly overfold AA

On January 02 2015 20:12 fira wrote: Show nested quote + On January 02 2015 09:18 GoTuNk wrote:   On January 02 2015 00:50 fira wrote: i like the river bet, now fold (unless u wanna call for info ;p) prob some kind of boat or quads, though his stats do suggest he's not opening those. still, it's only 30 hands. we're not gonna be super exploitable since we'll prob have 66, 44, maybe sets depending on how often we raise flop After watching the hand I'm not sure the river bet is good. What do I get value from? i would be betting as a bluff to get him to possibly fold higher overpairs, cause he seems capped whereas we aren't. i guess our hand may be too strong to turn into bluff, but i think a lot of players with his stats would mistakenly overfold AA

I think you overestimate our fold equity. Might as well c/r ?

On January 02 2015 21:47 GoTuNk wrote: Show nested quote + On January 02 2015 20:12 fira wrote:   On January 02 2015 09:18 GoTuNk wrote:   On January 02 2015 00:50 fira wrote: i like the river bet, now fold (unless u wanna call for info ;p) prob some kind of boat or quads, though his stats do suggest he's not opening those. still, it's only 30 hands. we're not gonna be super exploitable since we'll prob have 66, 44, maybe sets depending on how often we raise flop After watching the hand I'm not sure the river bet is good. What do I get value from? i would be betting as a bluff to get him to possibly fold higher overpairs, cause he seems capped whereas we aren't. i guess our hand may be too strong to turn into bluff, but i think a lot of players with his stats would mistakenly overfold AA I think you overestimate our fold equity. Might as well c/r ?

yeah i'm not sure how much fold equity we have vs better hands, it really depends on opponent. if we bluff we should bet an amount where he should at least consider folding with AA, so maybe like ~pot. i also dont know how many overpairs opponent has after checking back turn. this number could be close to 0 for some players

i think c/r could be ok, one problem is we'd usually be betting all our nutty hands since we expect a check back somewhat often