Not sure about this spot. His sizing makes me think he's more likely to have a hand with backup (i.e not JT but JT:ss or JT:KQ). If we can remove a lot of his naked Top2 or naked 2nd/bottom sets from his range with this sizing, but keep a lot of draws in, then we have a profitable call/call blanks.

If he just does this with his entire continuing range (all spades, JT, combo draws, sets etc), we have an essentially breakeven call/call blanks.

If this sizing just has his super nut hands in then we're probably losing almost as much when calling as we do jamming.

Problem is I dont have a good grasp of just how wide he cold calls 3bets.. Need to do some work on a wider cold calling range tomorrow and see how much that changes things.

This spot sucks.

I like your analysis but could you possibly be reading into his betsizing a little too much (although with the smaller sizing it makes sense that he would have backup and be inviting or indifferent to a call rather than protecting with closer to pot)? Any other reads on the guy do you play with him much.

I could see him coldcalling all kinds of rundowns he definitely has a ton of JTxx in his range. Obviously a million draws too.

how do you feel about just folding? or do you think at least one street needs to get peeled

That sizing looks really fucking strong. Like he can hardly be sucked out. Something like topset+nfd. I'd rather be inclined to stack off against a potbet than this nutsizing bet. I don't even think folding would be out of the question here.

That sizing looks really fucking strong. Like he can hardly be sucked out. Something like topset+nfd. I'd rather be inclined to stack off against a potbet than this nutsizing bet. I don't even think folding would be out of the question here.

Yeah he had AJT7sscc. We sucked out twice tho (picked the worst option).

how do you feel about just folding? or do you think at least one street needs to get peeled

I think folding quite possibly is the right play indeed. Plus it's not like we fold too much of our range by folding this, we have a lot of Ass or KQss, Kss, sets etc.