I keep telling myself it's wrong not to bet it out in this spot... but man oh man why is it every time i get hero called by baby flusehs.. yet rarely get paid with I have the A high flushl ol

damn

I pot for value since their range is heavy on flushes so I have to pot here as a bluff. Maybe they think like this too so they thought it smelled fishy and called.

Pretty standard bluff tho NH

It feels standard, but I actually have so little success with this line that I'm really starting to question it. Which is strange, because overall I find I don't get that much action with the A-high flush when I actually have it in these spots. Probably just running sort of weird over the short term. I think I size the nut flush the same way, and I guess it certainly looks like I should haha.

What I find odd about this is, when villain refuses to fold to the turn re-pop there seem to be 3 possibilities:
1. He has a set and will fold to river pressure.
2. He has a baby flush and is one of those players who can't fold it (which should be rare, but apparently isn't).
3. He has a baby flush but never believes one bullet.

My heart wants to believe most of the time it will be 3 - but I'm finding it quite consistent in terms of PLO50 trends that when a player refuses to give up after flop + turn bets or a similarly strength-showing turn-raise vs. 2 opponents they rarely give up on the river. They're just going to take those two cards to the grave hell or high water. I dunno, it's something to think about but so much of me feels that it can't really be wrong to bluff here, but with the way I get river-snapped in this spot so often I'm not so sure anymore.

i see player 2s a decent amount honestly

Also when you have the ace high flush u hold at least one more diamond so that makes for slightly less flush combos for villain. So it would make sense to get called a little more with the naked Ad. But I imagine this effect would be so minuscule you wouldn't ever notice it so you are probably just running bad

You mentioned it before, but I'm wondering if my sizing here is a major error. My sizing means I only need to turn up with A-Rag bluff 28% of the time for villain to break-even. He doesn't have to be right that much for it to be a good call. Although still I suppose most players will simply have it here a lot of the time... hmmm. Honestly maybe it's just much-ado-about-nothing and a totally standard bluff with just unfortunate run-bad I don't know. I tend to over-think things when I have a bad day like today was.

80/40 fish don't fold flushes on non-paired boards. Also, checking behind the nutflushdraw on the flop is not something you would do 100% of the time as well so your line kinda looks like AdXXX. On a flop like this you almost always have something to go along with your nutflushdraw when you do in fact have the nfd so you'd bet it.

ye its ridiculous, if you took this line with the nfd you would expect to get paid so how can you expect him to fold. i think this is a pretty bad bluff. Very few of your nfd hands will check this flop. you're thinking about the wrong things.