Kind of a really neat hand. Do we think unknown villain (no stats, no reads) ever turns 1098X type hands into a bluff like this on the turn?

I failed to make the spot easier for myself by betting 14 instead of 18 on the flop. I'm not sure I like my turn call at all, because even average players assume it will be hard to fold AAxx with low SPR and paired board, but hmm. Actually given that maybe it becomes just pure spew.

What do you guys think? This is a spot that happens very often. Dry-ish disconnected-ish board and then either paired board or complete disconnected random card on the turn. It either checks to us or they shove. I guess maybe it's just one of those spots that plays itself (villain can shove or c/r and get called very often, but will also have to fold very often when turn doesn't improve them and AAxx has no choice but to fire again turn and hope for that scenario). Hmm.

This is a spot where even if he checks to you I think you should check back and play a river.

As to whether he would turn 8910x into a bluff. I assume if he gets there with it he could but I also think he raises it much of the time on the flop and it needs to be discounted. Either way this board is very dry and he has far more Jxxx combos than draws of any kind.

Does he realize this J is great for his range? maybe he does and it seems you are worried about this and being exploited however I think he gets to this turn with very little air period (or draws) so even if he wanted to exploit you he really can't. So i'm saying even if he bluffs 8910x and what little air he has there it is barely going to even balance out his Jxxx vbets so go ahead and exploit his lead and just fold.

Maybe the better players will turn KKxx, QQxx into a bluff here but I doubt if you need to be concerned about that versus this guy.

who pots flop and who 2/3-3/4

this spot got me thinking. Are there any spots in poker where it is GTO not to bet even though you have a good and likely best hand because it is impossible to balance because you don't have enough hands in your range to bluff with? (I suspect the answer is no and that if you find yourself in that initial inbalance then you need to be getting to that spot with more hands overall).

In most spots in poker especially nlhe its easy to add bluffing hands to a value range but this spot is kinda different. This is a pretty clear spot where the ranges are likely AAxx vs Jxxx on the flop, you could say "face up". I'll say that means each players range is heavy with those hands. So if we say villain folds hands with low equity (most hands worse than Jxxx, maybe he continues with some KKxx, 7xxx, 3xxx but lets say that range is relatively small for discussions sake) and shoves better than AA for value he is going to get to the turn very heavy on Jxxx which may have been optimal up to this point (maybe this is intrinsically impossible i don't know). Those times he trips up he will now wan't to valuebet vs hero's AA. Villain has maybe 5:1 Jxxx to anything else though so if he jams hero always has a fold. So it becomes correct for Stoner to just c/call twice and basically bluffcatch with it. I suppose it is probably unlikely to get that far out of balance with jxxx to everything else in your range on the turn, and even if you are you can still valuebet optimally you just have to make a smaller bet. Something to think about and look at with some software. what do you guys think

completely missed 456x writing all that

Also missed, lol @ the pot/fold pre from UTG, what hand is that?!?

There's nothing particularly lol worthy about pot folding pre... There's a decent amount of openable hands that shouldn't call this squeeze.

UTG open raise should be pretty tight though so he might be making a mistake opening too light UTG. I don't think folding your UTG range against a potsqueeze is gonna be good often.

like what tian? some shitty Axxx or QQ with trash? Any low rundown or any 4 low cards with some suitedness you can call the 3b. 4556 you call the 3b. 4488 u call the 3b. AdJcJs2s maybe you open but fold to the 3bet? help me out here

"I don't think folding your UTG range against a potsqueeze is gonna be good often." agree

Also of everything I talked about you wanna discuss the open/fold pre? :/

Well that got derailed from my suggested subject of discussion fast . At least I'm apparently posting comment worthy hands these days lol

haha i tried, maybe i should stop posting on HHs and stuff but this is basically the last place I have left to talk about poker at all forumwise. Other than this its just some e-friends on aim/skype and my live friends who don't really follow online poker.

Couldn't even imagine trying to talk to random strangers on 2+2 about poker these days; nothing but trolling and donks and people who tell you to shut up and stop educating the fish if you do post something useful strategy wise.

It's cool man haha the more discussion the better. I think I might start streaming my sessions on Twitch and try to bring some new blood to Poker and to LP.