c/f flop, I've got a read that he's got K2.

what else can you do, ch/f river? Flop sizing seems a little big on this type of board, but I guess its needed to get a 3 street all in sizing. Would also be super awkward to 1/2pot river and face a shove

Yeah i don't like when i'm called but check folding sucks imo

Seriously? This is so obviously a trivially easy river jam. How can anyone not like when you're called on the river in this spot? It's heads up poker and you have AA on 322 J Q no completed flush. In terms of combinatorics he's going to have 33 and very few combos of 2x that beat you as he's likely folding to the 3bet with all offsuit 2x besides maybe A2o which you block and fold most suited 2x to the 3bet also. The remaining suited 2x he has is discounted heavily given that there's 2 2s accounted for on the board and suited hands make up a lot less combos than offsuit hands in the first place and he's likely never going to have JJ or QQ as all competent players 4bet pretty much always here. You're just very seldom behind. He can float the flop with a lot of lower pocket pairs, Jx and QsXs, 3x etc that he can all potentially call on the river and that's going to make up multitudes more combinations than 33 and the odd A2s, K2s, Q2s, A2o hands

standard jam spot but as I'm looking at it, it's pretty gross. He probably 4b pre with KK so take the main hand you get value from out of his range (or at least heavily discount it; I am aware villain may flat the 3b with KK to varying degrees). There is more chance he flats your 3bet with JJ, QQ (discount as appropriate depending on his pre tendencies but I'm going to assume he calls those often here) than with KK and he is in position so those hands play exactly like this calling you down and then snapcalling river with a full house (I'm guessing you lost to QQ not JJ but let us know). Pairs 1010 and under may fold the turn if not the river meaning there is questionable value to be had with a jam. Villain gets to river with basically no air except 45, AKss. He has those and low pocket pairs to turn into a bluff if you check which isn't much and he may check back AQss and AJ a couple of the few hands you are realistically trying to take to value town.

On the flip side you only need to be calle by worse 33% of the time. This is a super standard spot where you have 3bet pre and are 3barreling so you should have plenty of bluffs here to where AA has to be 3barreled as well for balance. You should be putting him in a spot where he has no question. But to call with worse or he will be absolutely run over. Villain knows this and will be likely to station up with something

What are you smoking trax? 3/6 regs are not flatting JJ or QQ pre there in a heads up game. And for a value bet to be good you need to be called by worse 50% not 33%. Also TT folding to the turn barrel in a heads up game? Seriously? Has no air besides AK? Why are you even including that when it's a very clear 4 bet pre? There are way more combinations of hands that are worse than us than better going to the river and it's easy for him to justify calling any of them

When ur oop and jam pot you need to be called by worse 33% of the time.

My 1st paragraph I am describing the worst case scenario I can visualize versus a tight opponent

My 2nd paragraph I state what you are talking about which is a more aggressive balanced game in which this hand isn't even posed as a question just accepted as completely standard.

For the record I play AA the same here as op

Today I am smoking purple master kush shatter with OG Kush Wax

Seemed to me like op probably lost the hand and posted this questioning the play.

Apparently he's just wondering if C/c is better?

If villain never ever flats JJ, QQ I don't see how hero even lost the hand; once in a blue moon to 2x or 33

Admittedly I'm probably not giving villain enough credit for having 2x hands; calling 3bets with A2, K2s, 23s, 24s

On March 06 2015 22:46 traxamillion wrote: When ur oop and jam pot you need to be called by worse 33% of the time.

I think value betting is more complex. If you are making a pot-sized bluff with a hand you are sure would lose at show down, (vs. just checking and losing the pot), if you make a pot sized bet, you need to make your opponent fold 1/3 of the time or MORE for the bluff to be profitable.

I think with value-betting, it's a bit more complex than either of you had said, isn't it? I think it would work like this:

It would be 50% if the opponent had no opportunity to bet afterwards, but since they do (and I assume we would still be calling), almost all of the time they would call and be ahead they would have just made the bet after we checked anyway. If they weren't allowed to bet, them calling and losing 50% of the time and winning 50% of the time would make us indifferent to whether we bet or check to showdown.

It would be 33% of the time if everytime we checked, they were going to bet and we were going to fold. If they were behind 33% of the time that they called, then it would make us indifferent to betting or check/folding.



Perhaps you guys are talking about different things: one is talking about how many times they have to call, and one is talking about what % of time calls have to be behind.

I would say that when one makes a value bet, OF THE TIMES THAT IT IS CALLED BY THE OPPONENT, you need to win 50% or more of those times to make the value-bet make sense. Otherwise it's not a value bet. If you would only win say 30%-50% of the time, I would call that a blocking bet, and if you couldn't win, that would be a bluff.