villain 3bets a lot, cbets a lot, tries to win a lot of pots

so far was more on passive side today

It does look like a spot where villain may check a lot of his draws/gutters/air cause its a shitty turn for those hands, and then when you check back it looks likely your range is showdown heavy - particularly Qx, so good spot to rack in a big bluff.

For this to be a fold I think he needs to have some big slowplays, A9 in particular. How often he cbet 77 on flop?

Especially with your description I lean towards call; him being more passive today leads me to believe this is the sort of bluff he would make once he does go for a big one.

I could be way off here though. After another look and if he is playing particularly passive this actually looks like a trap with KK/AA. After you check back turn he discounts 9x from your range so you aren't protected from him going thin. He can also figure you aren't checking back top pair so he doesn't risk losing value and actually gets max value with c/r vs a bet if roughly the same range you call a bet with bets itself.

i would feel pretty comfortable folding here given your description

just seems like a lot of his bluffs continue on the turn, you rep a Q very well, also doesn't seem too crazy that you could play some 9x this way on occasion and it just doesn't feel like a spot where people bluff that often in general

you ever consider betting turn -> check back/bet certain rivers line Smuft?

Not sure but you should bet river like 230+

On June 15 2015 05:41 TimDawg wrote: you ever consider betting turn -> check back/bet certain rivers line Smuft?

In a heads up dynamic that type of play will open us up to alot of turn c/r semibluffs. Much stronger line vs multiple opponents in 6m/fr imo.

c/ river? :D

On June 15 2015 06:52 handbanana21 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 15 2015 05:41 TimDawg wrote: you ever consider betting turn -> check back/bet certain rivers line Smuft? In a heads up dynamic that type of play will open us up to alot of turn c/r semibluffs. Much stronger line vs multiple opponents in 6m/fr imo.

yeah betting turn IP is a pretty disrespectful action here imo, but maybe okay to be used exploitatively vs some more faceup opponents with weaker ranges

Also like what do we really gain by betting? his checking range is weak draws that are giving up (BDFDs, most gutshots), most of his Qx+ 1 pair hands, most of which are ahead of us, and the occasional draw with SD value like AKhh.

So we mostly valuetown ourselves and get protection against 3-4 out draws (many of which may bluff the river if we check back).

If his flop cbet was smaller (and thus including underpairs/some 9x, more Ax) then more of a case could be made for betting turn since we can actually get value

I think your turn check is pretty standard

Did you end up folding river? I'm assuming so but if not result plz

On the one hand it seems like a fold, even if villain is bluffing often here, which he isnt necessarily.There is no reason he cannot have some very strong hands on the river.On the other hand ,our range is probably capped on the river and maybe villain is aware of this.Its hard to give a precise answer , but without more specific information, i am not calling. However, my adjustment would not be to hero call here but to also have stronger hands on the river, when i check back turns. I would also check back more marginal hands that cant stand a raise , and bet a more nutted range that can bet/call along with some air that will bet/fold.

there's 2 options:

as played, check back river pretty clear to me, you are probably valuecutting yourself on this river vs overpair and better Qx as he should be checking those hands vs your range, he doesnt have many weaker pair hands to call you, if the turn was a T or a J its a clear vbet on the river but not on this runout

if you bet the river your river size on this turn/river texture is also kinda bad, it should be bigger ( KQ+ and missdraws probably )

another option, the one i like the most, is to have a betting range on the turn, and the size should be pretty small like 1/3 pot to include these marginal showdown hands, since villain range is capped on the 9 and he shouldnt have a wide betting range ( so he will endup check calling with overpairs a good % of the time ) and also shouldnt have a x/r range too, you would buy a cheap river with medium strenght hands and pot/overbet river with a polar range if it bricks, consisting of 9x+ and missdraws

agreed with check river. the rest is unclear to me, but interesting hand range construction wise.

On June 15 2015 09:01 Smuft wrote: Also like what do we really gain by betting? his checking range is weak draws that are giving up (BDFDs, most gutshots), most of his Qx+ 1 pair hands, most of which are ahead of us, and the occasional draw with SD value like AKhh.

im not really sure how you got this conclusion, most of villains range should be checking the turn, including overpairs, since this turn is muuuuuch better for you making his range capped ( as you stated his size is pretty polar on this flop not having many 9x ) if he bet his overpairs, Qx and whatever he wants, you can rape his face by shoving draws and 9x

On June 15 2015 17:56 Daut wrote: agreed with check river. the rest is unclear to me, but interesting hand range construction wise.

Im not good explaning but I agree that my post was a little bit confuse, ill try to explain the benefits/problems with each line in my opinion:

option 2: ( if river bricks obv )
bet turn 33%, check back river weak showdown/bad bluff draws and pot/overbet river with the polar portion of your range ( 9x+, good missdraws to balance )
- turn size fits your whole range and makes it easier to balance ( you will have draws, weak showdown value and nuts ) / ( if you bet big you cant bet hands like Q8, if you checkback Q8 then youll have to balance a big checking back range since weak showdowns are a good portion of your range )
- you buy cheap showdown vs overpairs when you have weak showdown value, instead of having to call 75% pot bet when you check back and he bets river
- by betting turn small you can make hands ( KT, KJ, etc ) that beat the draw part of your range to fold or get value when you bet thin ( as he shouldnt have a turn betting range, at least not wide so he's probably checking these hands too )
- you put his range on tough situation when overbetting river with your polar range, increasing the EV of your bluffs and nuts
- simplest way to play your range not having multiple betsizes
- his range can't/shouldnt x/r this turn, even if he does you have a pretty easy decision with every part of your range

as played:

- size doesnt make much sense with your overall range, looks like you just playing your hand instead of thinking about your range
- I doubt you are balancing this line/sizes with strong hands
- IF you are balanced still bad because you will have many draws and a good portion of nuts, and you dont want to bet small with these hands, so I believe you have multiple betsizes
- if you have multiple betsizes its going to be way harder to balance all your ranges ( and I REALLY doubt this checkback turn, bet 50% river is balanced )
- makes this line vulnerable to x/r river as its not balanced

I can be wrong in some of these assumptions but Im pretty confident Im correct in most of them

No I think those were excellent explanations drone. Similar to what I was trying to say but from a much more technical, range oriented perspective. Also a lot more than what I said obviously but I agree with you

Great analysis Drone, thanks. BTW, what does "Valuecutting" mean? just value-betting your opponents hand for them?

you put his range on tough situation when overbetting river with your polar range, increasing the EV of your bluffs and nuts

Don't we need to have an idea of what his tendencies are when faced with a river overbet so we can skew our ranges in that fashion?

On June 15 2015 21:10 HungarianGOD wrote: Great analysis Drone, thanks. BTW, what does "Valuecutting" mean? just value-betting your opponents hand for them?

yea basically; valuebetting into a stronger calling range

On June 15 2015 19:10 drone666 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 15 2015 09:01 Smuft wrote: Also like what do we really gain by betting? his checking range is weak draws that are giving up (BDFDs, most gutshots), most of his Qx+ 1 pair hands, most of which are ahead of us, and the occasional draw with SD value like AKhh. im not really sure how you got this conclusion, most of villains range should be checking the turn, including overpairs, since this turn is muuuuuch better for you making his range capped ( as you stated his size is pretty polar on this flop not having many 9x ) if he bet his overpairs, Qx and whatever he wants, you can rape his face by shoving draws and 9x   On June 15 2015 17:56 Daut wrote: agreed with check river. the rest is unclear to me, but interesting hand range construction wise. Im not good explaning but I agree that my post was a little bit confuse, ill try to explain the benefits/problems with each line in my opinion: option 2: ( if river bricks obv ) bet turn 33%, check back river weak showdown/bad bluff draws and pot/overbet river with the polar portion of your range ( 9x+, good missdraws to balance ) - turn size fits your whole range and makes it easier to balance ( you will have draws, weak showdown value and nuts ) / ( if you bet big you cant bet hands like Q8, if you checkback Q8 then youll have to balance a big checking back range since weak showdowns are a good portion of your range ) - you buy cheap showdown vs overpairs when you have weak showdown value, instead of having to call 75% pot bet when you check back and he bets river - by betting turn small you can make hands ( KT, KJ, etc ) that beat the draw part of your range to fold or get value when you bet thin ( as he shouldnt have a turn betting range, at least not wide so he's probably checking these hands too ) - you put his range on tough situation when overbetting river with your polar range, increasing the EV of your bluffs and nuts - simplest way to play your range not having multiple betsizes - his range can't/shouldnt x/r this turn, even if he does you have a pretty easy decision with every part of your range as played: - size doesnt make much sense with your overall range, looks like you just playing your hand instead of thinking about your range - I doubt you are balancing this line/sizes with strong hands - IF you are balanced still bad because you will have many draws and a good portion of nuts, and you dont want to bet small with these hands, so I believe you have multiple betsizes - if you have multiple betsizes its going to be way harder to balance all your ranges ( and I REALLY doubt this checkback turn, bet 50% river is balanced ) - makes this line vulnerable to x/r river as its not balanced I can be wrong in some of these assumptions but Im pretty confident Im correct in most of them

A+

B imo

think smufts word choice of disrespectful is pretty spot on when betting turn. good vs jobbers but dont see that flying long term vs strong opponents

On June 15 2015 19:10 drone666 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 15 2015 09:01 Smuft wrote: Also like what do we really gain by betting? his checking range is weak draws that are giving up (BDFDs, most gutshots), most of his Qx+ 1 pair hands, most of which are ahead of us, and the occasional draw with SD value like AKhh. im not really sure how you got this conclusion, most of villains range should be checking the turn, including overpairs, since this turn is muuuuuch better for you making his range capped ( as you stated his size is pretty polar on this flop not having many 9x ) if he bet his overpairs, Qx and whatever he wants, you can rape his face by shoving draws and 9x

It seems we have the same conclusion. Did you misunderstand "his checking range is... ,most of his Qx+ 1 pair hands"?

Turn is a clear check as for the river. Our hand is very similar to 88 in relative strength and the likelyhood of him showing up with a better hand is more plausible than getting a call from worse. It would make sense to choose a smaller sizing of 1/3 if we want to risk opening the betting for a very light call.

I enjoyed the write up but option 2 IMO is pretty weak vs the way most of the 5/10 regs constructs their cbet. We need a player that's 3betting most of their off suit KJ/KT with concrete evidence to even consider a turn bet with our exact hand which is probably not the case vs most of the reg battling pool at 5/10. I think the arguement of betting turn to get a cheap showdown is not the best way to play at least in spot similar to this. When we bet turn, we are blindly betting to cheat our way out of tough decisions when we should be more focused on playing correctly against his range and making important decision(or a guess) vs his bigger bets. Also, we already have enough hands to go polar on turn and river.

The ongoing theme of using balance for reasoning of sizing/range is overrated IMO. I agree it is important but it's not as important to engage in a war with yourself and limit your creative plays just to keep yourself honest. Most of the regs playing you does not know how you exactly play even if they are data mining.

^agreed with everything esp the last paragraph

Was just throwing the idea of bet turn/check river line out there. Doesn't mean I thought it was a more preferable line or anything. It seemed to generate some discussion though, which is good.

Smuft, you need to post hands more often. You always have cool ones that stir up discussion

'I agree it is important but it's not as important to engage in a war with yourself and limit your creative plays just to keep yourself honest'

I think this is pretty true and something i struggle with

On June 15 2015 19:10 drone666 wrote: option 2: ( if river bricks obv ) bet turn 33%, check back river weak showdown/bad bluff draws and pot/overbet river with the polar portion of your range ( 9x+, good missdraws to balance ) - turn size fits your whole range and makes it easier to balance ( you will have draws, weak showdown value and nuts ) / ( if you bet big you cant bet hands like Q8, if you checkback Q8 then youll have to balance a big checking back range since weak showdowns are a good portion of your range ) - you buy cheap showdown vs overpairs when you have weak showdown value, instead of having to call 75% pot bet when you check back and he bets river - by betting turn small you can make hands ( KT, KJ, etc ) that beat the draw part of your range to fold or get value when you bet thin ( as he shouldnt have a turn betting range, at least not wide so he's probably checking these hands too ) - you put his range on tough situation when overbetting river with your polar range, increasing the EV of your bluffs and nuts - simplest way to play your range not having multiple betsizes - his range can't/shouldnt x/r this turn, even if he does you have a pretty easy decision with every part of your range

Regarding betting your entire range on the turn for 33%:

our range is not strong enough to do this, remember that we agreed his checking range has most of his Qx+/KK/AA hands in it? Q8 specifically has ~50% equity vs villains turn checking range but less than 25% equity when called!

If hands as strong as top pair cannot be bet for value, obviously betting our entire range is going to be a fairly hopeless plan.



Here is roughly what the equity of our turn range looks like vs his turn checking range. You could nitpick on my assumptions that gave us his turn checking range but it will only change the equity a few percent.

Overall I think it was a decent line of thinking by you but you overlooked the makeup of our ranges and what our actual equity is. I recommend quantifying things as best you can first; breaking down the ranges and looking at the data first and then start theorizing your strategy.

On June 15 2015 19:10 drone666 wrote: as played: - size doesnt make much sense with your overall range, looks like you just playing your hand instead of thinking about your range - I doubt you are balancing this line/sizes with strong hands - IF you are balanced still bad because you will have many draws and a good portion of nuts, and you dont want to bet small with these hands, so I believe you have multiple betsizes - if you have multiple betsizes its going to be way harder to balance all your ranges ( and I REALLY doubt this checkback turn, bet 50% river is balanced ) - makes this line vulnerable to x/r river as its not balanced I can be wrong in some of these assumptions but Im pretty confident Im correct in most of them

I find you are over emphasizing balance here.

The river bet is definitely speculative and there are a lot of ways you could pick it apart. If villain bets all of his Qx+ hands on the river then my bet is quite good, the less of those villain bets, the worst my bet becomes. I expected this villain to bet almost all of them so I felt my bet to be fine. I agree w/ Andrew that a smaller sizing is better.

I will have most classes of hands in my XB range, I will have multiple sizes on the river, a super computer would be able to exploit them, humans will too sometimes but usually not. We want to make the play the makes the most money, not the play that makes us unexploitable vs a super computer.

On June 16 2015 00:18 AndrewSong wrote: The ongoing theme of using balance for reasoning of sizing/range is overrated IMO.

Agree. Pretty insightful for a retired poker player turned coder, maybe you should get back into action?

Game theory is a great framework for thinking about the game but dangerous when we start trying to play good theoretical poker at the expense of making higher EV decisions.

nice discussion going on, the 9 turn changes a lot and I think it makes him more prone to check his value hands and that should make us check turn with a higher frecuency, constructing our range on the river is interesting, since we should be checking back quite a bit of draws on the turn if we want to vbet as thin as Q8o and will have to contain some 9x too

Smuft that graph is a lot more meaningful if it shows the weight of each hand combo. Gives us a better idea of overall equity too. Can you produce a more detailed graph or does it just go into more detail in the actual program when for example you click on the 96s box.

what program is that? doesnt look familiar

On June 16 2015 01:51 Smuft wrote: Regarding betting your entire range on the turn for 33%: our range is not strong enough to do this, remember that we agreed his checking range has most of his Qx+/KK/AA hands in it? Q8 specifically has ~50% equity vs villains turn checking range but less than 25% equity when called! If hands as strong as top pair cannot be bet for value, obviously betting our entire range is going to be a fairly hopeless plan. Here is roughly what the equity of our turn range looks like vs his turn checking range. You could nitpick on my assumptions that gave us his turn checking range but it will only change the equity a few percent. Overall I think it was a decent line of thinking by you but you overlooked the makeup of our ranges and what our actual equity is. I recommend quantifying things as best you can first; breaking down the ranges and looking at the data first and then start theorizing your strategy.

I have no idea how you came up with these equities, I believe you made a big mistake considering he's x/c with only Qx+ KK+ and folding the rest, which would be a retard thing to do folding 70%+ of his range vs a 33% turn bet, if so you can play 100% explotative vs him obviously but I doubt you have this read...

this is a more realistic equity vs his cbet range / check turn ( Im using your own range for this for the sake of simplicity even tho I disagree with some ) :



and this is vs his x/c turn range:

@drone, ur range is completely off. K3s has 54%? He is not a 2nd tier reg at 2/4, doing little amount of search he's up 40k in last 1.5month battling on partypoker alone. I would assign a range suited for top tier HSNL player not some fishy reg

On June 16 2015 05:37 drone666 wrote: which would be a retard thing to do folding 70%+ of his range vs a 33% turn bet, if so you can play 100% explotative vs him obviously but I doubt you have this read...

I agree that folding 70% of his range would be retarded, you must not have very much faith in me? I have him folding 36%:


orange XF, yellow XC

We could probably add a couple more combos of AJ but thats nit picking and won't significantly change our equity. I mean we're just trying to get a rough idea of what our equity is in this situation not perfectly refined ranges so i'll spend 5 minutes to get them 90% accurate instead of 30 minutes to get them 99% accurate.

Even if we add all these speculative Ax calls our equity matrix only goes up to this:



could you post your turn XC/XF ranges that are producing your equity matrix?

I dont completely understard your ranges smuft, its a bit confuse to me in the combos part, but here are mine:

3bet range:


cbet range, you can argue that villain wont cbet AT, AJ, but u said in the OP he has a high cbet %, so ~60% is reasonable, dont think it would make a big difference too, also have some hands like 74s 3betting 50% of the time and I assigned only spades and hearts for the simplicity:



x/c range on the turn:



also tried to make the cbet range as strong as possible to make a point, in practice villain should be checking some AQ or QJs/QTs a good % of the time to protect his checking range on the flop so the SB equity should be even higher when BB cbets flop and checks turn

great thread guys

Tough spot, mostly fold. He should chk riv w almost all his hands on this runout and cr for value as lite as kq here.

I love his play with any hand, I would just showdown this hand. Depends on your frequencies as well and any history, if he has seen you delay bet river with a draw then go for the thin value obviously.

all those 3 equity matrixes look unfamiliar, not CREV not Oracle odds, not equilab, what are those? flopzilla or something?

poker ranger

i really dislike the river bet here obv we flat flop, i'd bet turn personally since he has to x/r a very thin range, and check back river if called..

if he rejams meh....some calls depends villian, stats would be nice

this river can be a call pretty often vs certain ppl.....

obv a NL1k reg isnt spazzing this riv with KThh or anything to often, but i think alot of KJ etc, any hand with a blocker and over can make this play pretty easy from a talented opponent if he knows you are capable of folding

obv ur > me smuft, just what i think of this hand