wow sick pot

wonder how often isildur has a boat or better vs JT/J6/T6...

what u guys think of JayP's call?

Good call by Jay P, Isil probably is overbluffing this spot from what I have seen. Not the first light bet/call with AA from his opponent I have seen on virtually identical runouts* (not quite as deep but still 250-300bb+)

Thing here is Jay-P has all JJ he is completely uncapped so ISIL will be flatting river with some boats like 10-5 Maybe not vs this sizing but I think this is Jay-P balanced sizing with everything. Some of Isil's combos for raising river will have potted this turn as well (set+draw). When Jay P bets here with AA merge his value may come from isil's bad bluffs rather than his bad calls i suspect.

runouts* edit

I hate Isildur's raise so much here and I don't believe he would call that the right play if he reflected on it.

This play is A-OK if you're Doyle Brunson or Barry Greenstein but come on you're Isildur1 that's way too good a price
for anyone with a JT/overpair and you have showdown value to just call.

What I'd love to know is just the very basics:
What he expects to be folding to him here that he hasn't already got beat? Or calls him that is worse? AJXX? 99XX? Wut?

From what I've seen of these games recently I remember a LOT of cases where people called Isildur's aggression with just top two.

yeah it is a good point that isildur may not be raising all of his boats here, esp the 5x ones. not raising 66 seems a little tight though, and i'd expect J5 to raise as well although he shouldn't have that much J5.

taco i see what you're saying, that isildur's image is going to play against his bluff here, but still his hand has to be one of the best bluffing hands he could ask for, since it blocks JJ, 66, and J5, which are hands that are never folding. he needs a bluffing range and this is like the nut hand to do it with. are you proposing that he should call the river bet instead? what else would we bluff here to balance our JJ/TT/66 raises?

Standard bluffing hand here, Jay's b/c is likely quite bad.

On September 13 2015 23:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Standard bluffing hand here, Jay's b/c is likely quite bad.

It should be, but for him to even bet the river in the first place looks to me like he is trying to exploit Isil

On September 13 2015 19:11 fira wrote: taco i see what you're saying, that isildur's image is going to play against his bluff here, but still his hand has to be one of the best bluffing hands he could ask for, since it blocks JJ, 66, and J5, which are hands that are never folding. he needs a bluffing range and this is like the nut hand to do it with. are you proposing that he should call the river bet instead? what else would we bluff here to balance our JJ/TT/66 raises?

To echo trax's very words: Isil probably is overbluffing this spot from what I have seen

It's for the reason you've outlined - leveling yourself into thinking you have to shove bluff here often
with blockers to balance TT/JJ/66 but you have blockers way more than you have the goods and
realistically how often do you think Isildur plays the flop and turn this way with a set or even just top two?
I think basically never and I think Jay-P knows it.

Probably easiest snap call of his life with JT/overpairs which is a big part of his range as played.

In summary I think Isildur is expoitable on the river and JayP is inducing these exact retard shoves with that 42% pot bet
since he has pretty much the top of his own range right here.

yeah i'm wondering how often isildur has the goods vs blocker bluffs, and if he has more bluffs than value then how should he differentiate between various bluff hands that are identical in blocker value. i guess the blocker bluff hands with A's or K's are better ones to bluff since they also block AA/KK, but in general they are about the same. so it seems tough to "reduce bluffs in order to be balanced and unexploitable" without having some kind of random number generator. i run into these spots kinda often in Hold'em as well, but in PLO there are def more of these.

also i don't see a turn raise range to be good, being so deep here... like, if we are raising most JJ/TT/66 on turn then what are we bluffing there? naked KQ? Q9 with diamonds? it seems tough to construct a balanced raising range on turn since it's deep and there will be a river a lot of the time. i dunno about isildur but my standard with sets (along with anything i'm not folding) is to just call down to river and then decide.