this is a good one...

the turn is really interesting i think. at first thought it kinda feels like we should always be good by the river when he takes that line. it doesn't make sense for him to check a lot of the stronger portion of his range on the turn imo. he can rep this board way better than you can and i think if he were to have a 2pr+, he'd be missing out on too much value by checking the turn. also just think most players would continue barreling with their almost all of their flush draws too. it just feels like 8x/88/99/TT/JJ type hand a lot to me

so I like the river shove i guess

On September 28 2015 07:41 TimDawg wrote: this is a good one... the turn is really interesting i think. at first thought it kinda feels like we should always be good by the river when he takes that line. it doesn't make sense for him to check a lot of the stronger portion of his range on the turn imo. he can rep this board way better than you can and i think if he were to have a 2pr+, he'd be missing out on too much value by checking the turn. also just think most players would continue barreling with their almost all of their flush draws too. it just feels like 8x/88/99/TT/JJ type hand a lot to me so I like the river shove i guess

im pretty confident this is a bluff, lol
and not a good one

On September 28 2015 11:30 drone666 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 28 2015 07:41 TimDawg wrote: this is a good one... the turn is really interesting i think. at first thought it kinda feels like we should always be good by the river when he takes that line. it doesn't make sense for him to check a lot of the stronger portion of his range on the turn imo. he can rep this board way better than you can and i think if he were to have a 2pr+, he'd be missing out on too much value by checking the turn. also just think most players would continue barreling with their almost all of their flush draws too. it just feels like 8x/88/99/TT/JJ type hand a lot to me so I like the river shove i guess im pretty confident this is a bluff, lol and not a good one

Uhhh I don't think so. What would he be trying to bluff? Like AA/KK? I guess villain could take this line with those hands but I can't see him ever folding them on the river

Don't think it's a bluff. Intentions are to make it look like he's bluffing due to missed draws to get called by 88-JJ if he 3 bets those or a random A7s or K5s that made a pair. Flat pre to keep range as wide as poss but not always

This isnt a bluff, unless its with the intent for villain to fold KK-AA which probably wont happen as they are his best bluff catchers

well, I dont play 6max so I might be really off, but I cant see how this is a good spot to vbet unless villain is retarded and unbalanced or u have a sick read on how he plays his hands on this typoe of board

you are not even close to the top of your range on this board and villains range shouldnt be capped, he should have straights, flushes and 2 pairs a decent % of the time and shouldnt attack this turn with all of those since he still needs to protect his overpairs

all this assuming that BTN vs Blinds ranges are somewhat similar to HU ( tighter obv, but still wide )

On September 28 2015 13:36 Spitfiree wrote: This isnt a bluff, unless its with the intent for villain to fold KK-AA which probably wont happen as they are his best bluff catchers

if villain isnt folding AA and KK and is folding at least half of his 88-JJ and assuming he doesnt have flushes, straights and 2 pairs in his checking range ( which is unlikely ) the vbet isnt +ev

would be totally random to assume that villain is betting AA and KK and x/c with the weaker part of his overpairs ( infact the lower overpairs need more protection than AA/KK )

overall, hero doesnt have many bluffs in his range and have a fuckton of better hands to vbet this river

I mean you re right, but QQ has enough showdown value for us to xback here so I really find no reason to bet it as a bluff
I am way over my head on this hand though so, but I'm guessing he wants a call from 88-JJ and A7s which might be a bit optimistic, as only Ad7 i guess is the one calling and dunno about 88- JJ

lol why do u guys keep thinking im bluffing with really strong hands? that makes like no sense.

what bluffs do you really have here? a8/a9/k8s/k9s/t9s against the billion made hands you have by riv

he really has to be reaching to call with worse here so history dependant i guess

There is so many IFs in this spot, that it`s hard to review the river line

I don't play NL at all so this could be totally stupid, but if we want to get called by the 88-99 hands here, doesn't he have reverse blockers to you having a bluff when he has those hands and this river falls?

how to misplay arguably every street..

On September 29 2015 03:25 TianYuan wrote: I don't play NL at all so this could be totally stupid, but if we want to get called by the 88-99 hands here, doesn't he have reverse blockers to you having a bluff when he has those hands and this river falls?

that's a really good point imo

the more I think about this, I tend to think checking behind is better basically because of what PU said ~ it's just very hard for us to have a bluff

On September 28 2015 19:24 MARSHALL28 wrote: lol why do u guys keep thinking im bluffing with really strong hands? that makes like no sense.

you got 1 pair on a 3 flush 4 straight board, how is your hand "really strong"?

river bet seems very bad... we are going to have soooo many better value hands here to bet. i also dislike the sizing, if we are value betting we need to bet small. mostly i just like a check back, we got so many random stuff like sets 2pairs straights flushes i think villain should actually fold AA/KK vs a jam because of how strong our range is. i thought this was a bluff too.

On September 29 2015 09:14 fira wrote: river bet seems very bad... we are going to have soooo many better value hands here to bet. i also dislike the sizing, if we are value betting we need to bet small. mostly i just like a check back, we got so many random stuff like sets 2pairs straights flushes i think villain should actually fold AA/KK vs a jam because of how strong our range is. i thought this was a bluff too.

big +1

i disagree w/ all of you guys. i think you guys are all missing something

Are you using a mixed strategy here not 4betting QQ pre? Or is this an exploitive line b/c of specific Villain?

i just think it's good to occasionally be able to show up w/ hands that my opponents not gonna expect. so its nothing specific vs this opponent, just something i do vs the field.

On September 29 2015 10:06 MARSHALL28 wrote: i disagree w/ all of you guys. i think you guys are all missing something

I challenge you to SS a river calling range that QQ wins >50% against

I like it. Isildurshove ftw!

On September 29 2015 11:30 Smuft wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 10:06 MARSHALL28 wrote: i disagree w/ all of you guys. i think you guys are all missing something I challenge you to SS a river calling range that QQ wins >50% against

SS? dunno what u mean .. but ... maybe i just think im ahead here like 80% of the time based on the board and his line. ever think of that?

okay, 70%

http://prntscr.com/8lrpcp

So your assumptions are:

1. he never gets to river with 2p+
2. he will call 100% of the time with 7x+

Strongly disagree on both counts would change assumptions to:

1. almost all combos of 2p+ get to river this way
2. will fold most 1 pair hands on river without a diamond blocker

Here is a more realistic river calling range:

http://i.imgur.com/w2tsZY7.png

On September 29 2015 11:05 MARSHALL28 wrote: i just think it's good to occasionally be able to show up w/ hands that my opponents not gonna expect. so its nothing specific vs this opponent, just something i do vs the field.

That sounds so random

Also villain never has all of that range you've given sry
I like Smuft's range except I'd prefer 88 instead of JJ and A4 2 combos ( clubs/diamonds ) as the other 2 would probably bet the turn to protect, if we re putting any A4 at all that is

On September 29 2015 12:52 Smuft wrote: So your assumptions are: 1. he never gets to river with 2p+ 2. he will call 100% of the time with 7x+ Strongly disagree on both counts would change assumptions to: 1. almost all combos of 2p+ get to river this way 2. will fold most 1 pair hands on river without a diamond blocker Here is a more realistic river calling range: http://i.imgur.com/w2tsZY7.png

Well I just disagree. You didn't even include the hand he actually did call with.

My assumption is that all sets are either betting turn or x/all in on turn. To x/c turn with 77 seems silly to me since the hand wants to get value, the 4 straight is nearly irrelevant, I don't have enough straights in my range for him to worry about compared to all the diamond/club draws and overpairs that he can get value from/protect his hand against now. Same goes if he has a straight.

67 okay I can't be so sure what somebody does with that hand but I think it's similar to 77 here. The only time I'm beat is when he has AA or KK. The other thing everybody is missing is that you all assume I wont have QQ here and that I won't jam lower pairs for value, so you put me only on straights and flushes and end up making more hero calls w/ 'blocker' hands.

https://gyazo.com/f3e88dd62d2019f8097dd1c5b189b95b

this is a reasonable range imo which plays 45-55% in villains favour, if we add JJ it's 55-45 in our favour, but I honestly doubt he calls both 88 and JJ

On September 29 2015 12:57 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 11:05 MARSHALL28 wrote: i just think it's good to occasionally be able to show up w/ hands that my opponents not gonna expect. so its nothing specific vs this opponent, just something i do vs the field. That sounds so random Also villain never has all of that range you've given sry I like Smuft's range except I'd prefer 88 instead of JJ and A4 2 combos ( clubs/diamonds ) as the other 2 would probably bet the turn to protect, if we re putting any A4 at all that is

JJd > 88 by a long shot

I think anything with an 8 in it is a bad blocker and wouldn't be calling any of them personally:

Bluffs blocked: A8s-T8s (15)

value blocked: 98s (4)

but I'd still expect a lot of the population to mistake it as a good blocker and call anyways

On September 28 2015 07:41 TimDawg wrote: this is a good one... the turn is really interesting i think. at first thought it kinda feels like we should always be good by the river when he takes that line. it doesn't make sense for him to check a lot of the stronger portion of his range on the turn imo. he can rep this board way better than you can and i think if he were to have a 2pr+, he'd be missing out on too much value by checking the turn. also just think most players would continue barreling with their almost all of their flush draws too. it just feels like 8x/88/99/TT/JJ type hand a lot to me so I like the river shove i guess

this first post nailed it.

okay yeah that makes a lot of sense actually didn't think about it

edit: if he calls 88-JJ he s plainly bad thats all
when we discuss a hand its not about the result, its about a discussion vs optimal range
this just feels way too thin imo, we are at the bottom of our range here

On September 29 2015 13:11 Smuft wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 12:57 Spitfiree wrote:   On September 29 2015 11:05 MARSHALL28 wrote: i just think it's good to occasionally be able to show up w/ hands that my opponents not gonna expect. so its nothing specific vs this opponent, just something i do vs the field. That sounds so random Also villain never has all of that range you've given sry I like Smuft's range except I'd prefer 88 instead of JJ and A4 2 combos ( clubs/diamonds ) as the other 2 would probably bet the turn to protect, if we re putting any A4 at all that is JJd > 88 by a long shot I think anything with an 8 in it is a bad blocker and wouldn't be calling any of them personally: Bluffs blocked: A8s-T8s (15) value blocked: 98s (4) but I'd still expect a lot of the population to mistake it as a good blocker and call anyways

yep agreed. i think this is another way to exploit people nowadays, they will look to make calls w/ "blockers" when they dont actually block a big portion of my range they aren't thinking i have.

sorry if i came off all adversarial, been taking a lot of shit from ppl on here lately. i do have respect for u smuft.

On September 29 2015 13:03 MARSHALL28 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 12:52 Smuft wrote: So your assumptions are: 1. he never gets to river with 2p+ 2. he will call 100% of the time with 7x+ Strongly disagree on both counts would change assumptions to: 1. almost all combos of 2p+ get to river this way 2. will fold most 1 pair hands on river without a diamond blocker Here is a more realistic river calling range: http://i.imgur.com/w2tsZY7.png Well I just disagree. You didn't even include the hand he actually did call with. My assumption is that all sets are either betting turn or x/all in on turn. To x/c turn with 77 seems silly to me since the hand wants to get value, the 4 straight is nearly irrelevant, I don't have enough straights in my range for him to worry about compared to all the diamond/club draws and overpairs that he can get value from/protect his hand against now. Same goes if he has a straight.

the 4 straight hits more hands than you might realize:

44, A4s, 64s, 54s, 33 (18 combos)

I think 2p+ are nice hands to bet or XR the turn with but the tendency of current population is to just XC them

On September 29 2015 13:28 Smuft wrote: Show nested quote + On September 29 2015 13:03 MARSHALL28 wrote:   On September 29 2015 12:52 Smuft wrote: So your assumptions are: 1. he never gets to river with 2p+ 2. he will call 100% of the time with 7x+ Strongly disagree on both counts would change assumptions to: 1. almost all combos of 2p+ get to river this way 2. will fold most 1 pair hands on river without a diamond blocker Here is a more realistic river calling range: http://i.imgur.com/w2tsZY7.png Well I just disagree. You didn't even include the hand he actually did call with. My assumption is that all sets are either betting turn or x/all in on turn. To x/c turn with 77 seems silly to me since the hand wants to get value, the 4 straight is nearly irrelevant, I don't have enough straights in my range for him to worry about compared to all the diamond/club draws and overpairs that he can get value from/protect his hand against now. Same goes if he has a straight. the 4 straight hits more hands than you might realize: 44, A4s, 64s, 54s, 33 (18 combos) I think 2p+ are nice hands to bet or XR the turn with but the tendency of current population is to just XC them

yeah there's definitely a few combos. tho i wouldnt put 64s in there, even tho maybe it's a hand i theoretically 'should' show up with, i dont really ever have it here.

are you suggesting his sets and 2prs should be so worried that they should slow down?

edit: i think its very tough to say with a lot of confidence how the field is playing two pairs in a spot as specific as this.

why aren't you paying smuft for this?

On September 29 2015 14:40 Skoal wrote: why aren't you paying smuft for this?

you mean charging i assume?

cuz i like smuft ... over the years he's always been deferential without being ingratiating, he has enough confidence in his own beliefs to argue his side without letting emotion take charge, he makes solid points. anybody who has those qualities is pretty solid in my book.

On September 29 2015 13:42 MARSHALL28 wrote: are you suggesting his sets and 2prs should be so worried that they should slow down?

edit: my post sound a bit offensive lol, not my intention

but I dont think this is the correct way to think about poker, he shouldnt be doing X action because he's scared or worried, but because one action is superior to the other, I see many midstakers balancing spots like this because they recognize they shouldnt be attacking this runnout and go on protecting with strong hands as sets and straights, and unless the banana's poker that u play is unbelievably soft I think random 1k reg should be doing the same here

At the end of the day it`s a game of ranges. As You know even if You have 80% equity vs villains range on the river, it doesn`t make any sense to bet if his calling range would be only the 20% that beats You.(or even 55;45 on his favour) Tbh I`m not sure if I like shoving vs a population, if I`m about to bet I think bet>shove. There is so many things to consider
1) What SB 3b`s vs Your steal
2) What do You defend vs his 3b
3) How do You play sets, 88, T9s( with and without FD)
4) Which part of Your range You stab on the turn - in this spot it`s probably working on Your favour, bacause You probably wouldn`t floatbet 88-TT. Theoreticaly You`ve got QQ in Your 4b range ( JJ?)
5) Whether he is playing KK+ by barreling or c/c the turn
6) Metagame and many other

The more I think about it the more I like betting here, but I think I would go for 350-450 instead of shoving. I`ve got a feeling that it`s somehow psychological( and statistically ofc) and people would more likelly call here smaller bet

EDIT: Damn that`s so tricky hand :D My first though was to check back, I`m not sure how he plays nut FD, FD with a pair. If he is 3b 88 and 99

upswing for the HH section

shitfiree casually discussing 5/10 hands =)

On September 29 2015 19:36 lebowski wrote: upswing for the HH section

+1, loving it !

the discussion seems pretty straightforward to me, with nobody being wrong, just different assumptions being made about a random's range especially OTT

On September 29 2015 20:44 cariadon wrote: shitfiree casually discussing 5/10 hands =)

you re a sad story arent ya :D

tbh you randomly just flame me i must've hurt your petty ego some time ago i guess